Children with problematic sexualized behaviors in the child welfare system

This study assessed the utility of the Child Sexual Behavior Inventory (CSBI) in a child welfare sample. In this study, 97 children from ages 10 to 12 from either foster boarding homes or a residential treatment center participated. Researchers interviewed foster parents or primary therapists about children's sexual behavior, traumatic events, clinical symptoms, and their attitudes toward the child. Findings revealed that problematic sexualized behaviors were more prevalent in the residential treatment center (RTC) sample than they were in a normative sample. The pattern of associations between sexual behavior problems, traumatic events, and clinical syndromes in both the RTC and the foster boarding home (FBH) samples was similar to what has been found in samples in which biological custodial parents were the respondents. Analyses comparing youth who met the criterion for having problematic sexualized behaviors and youth who did not meet the criterion revealed that the two groups differed on clinical symptoms, prior traumatic events, and negative reports by caregivers. Results confirm the utility of the CSBI measure for this population and highlight several important clinical and programmatic concerns for addressing problematic sexual behavior in children in the child welfare system.     

Evaluation of hip abductor and adductor strength in the elderly: a reliability study

Background

In elderly individuals an increased muscle strength contributes to the diminution of the falls risk and associated adverse events. An increasing interest in lateral control exists due to the fatal consequences of postero-lateral falls. Therefore a proper assessment of frontal plane hip muscle strength in elderly is important but remains challenging.Therefore we aimed to investigate the feasibility and repeatability of a hip abductor and adductor maximum voluntary isometric strength (MVIS) and rate of force generation (RFG) test in elderly. This represents an initial step in the development process of a new and clinically relevant test that could lead to more specific treatment protocols for this population.

Methods

In this measurement focused study hip abduction (ABD) and adduction (ADD) MVIS and RFG were tested twice within one to three hours with a dynamometer fixed to a custom made frame in a geriatric population including fallers and non-fallers. Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC_agreement), standard error of measurement (SEM), and smallest detectable difference (SDD) were determined.

Results

All recruited persons (N?=?76; mean age (SD) 80.46 (7.05) years old) completed the tests. The average time needed to complete the strength tests was 10.58 min. (1.56) per muscle group. The reliability of the hip ABD and ADD was high with ICC’s_agreement ranging from 0.83 to 0.97. The SDD varied between 18.1 and 81.8% depending on the muscle group and type of strength that was evaluated.

Conclusion

Hip abductor and adductor strength measures in older person are feasible and reliable. However, the significance of moderate changes in these measurements may be limited by the large SDD and SEM. Therefore, physical therapist should be careful when using this measure for assessing the progress of an individual person in a daily clinical use.

     

Fast Inference for Network Models of Infectious Disease Spread

Models of infectious disease over contact networks offer a versatile means of capturing heterogeneity in populations during an epidemic. Highly connected individuals tend to be infected at a higher rate early during an outbreak than those with fewer connections. A powerful approach based on the probability generating function of the individual degree distribution exists for modelling the mean field dynamics of outbreaks in such a population. We develop the same idea in a stochastic context, by proposing a comprehensive model for 1‐week‐ahead incidence counts. Our focus is inferring contact network (and other epidemic) parameters for some common degree distributions, in the case when the network is non‐homogeneous ‘at random’. Our model is initially set within a susceptible–infectious–removed framework, then extended to the susceptible–infectious–removed–susceptible scenario, and we apply this methodology to influenza A data.     

Playing the Game of Outcomes‐based Performance Management. Is Gamesmanship Inevitable? Evidence from Theory and Practice

This article presents the case for the need for a re‐think in the prevailing orthodoxy of measurement approaches in the governance and management of public services. The article explores the simplification of complex reality that outcomes‐based performance management (OBPM) requires in order to function, and the consequences of such simplification. It examines the evidence for and against the effectiveness of OBPM, and argues that both sets of evidence can be brought into a single explanatory story by understanding the theory of OBPM. The simplification required to measure and attribute ‘outcomes’ turns the organization and delivery of social interventions into a game, the rules of which promote gamesmanship, distorting the behaviour of organizations, managers and practitioners who undertake it.     

Learning strategies of workers in the knowledge-creating company

This study presents a critical examination of Nonaka and Takeuchi's theory about knowledge-creating companies (1995), taken as one example of contemporary management theories concerning innovation and learning. Two main questions are investigated. First, how is the learning of workers organized in the knowledge creation theory? Second, how is their learning related to the work they perform? Answers to these questions are sought from case-study research into work-related learning projects (Poell 1998) and from theoretical notions about learning networks in various work types (Van der Krogt 1998). Our first conclusion is that Nonaka and Takeuchi seem to assume that workers will learn only within the boundaries set by management. They do not, however, take into account that workers organize a great deal of learning themselves, frequently irrespective of management expectations. Second, Nonaka and Takeuchi expect workers to learn according to rigid bureaucratic principles in a work context emphasizing innovation. The theory of knowledge creation does not show how these contrary principles might be successfully integrated.     

Lay explanations of and solutions to unemployment in Northern Ireland

Abstract

This study investigates the structure of and relationship between lay explanations of and solutions to unemployment in an area of high unemployment. A sample of 261 subjects resident in Northern Ireland rated the importance of 20 explanations of unemployment identified by Furnham (1982) and 20 solutions to unemployment identified by Heaven (1990). Factor analysis of their responses identified three explanatory factors, viz. individualistic, societal/managerial and fatalistic/uncontrollable Factor analysis of the 20 solutions identified three primary factors which were labelled punitive, opportunity creation, and resource management. The relative importance of both the explanation and the solution factors varied little with the demographic characteristics of the subjects. A correlation analysis showed that there was a clear and meaningful pattern in the relationship between explanations of and solutions to unemployment.     

Assessing the impact of ICH E9

The ICH harmonized tripartite guideline 'Statistical Principles for Clinical Trials', more commonly referred to as ICH E9, was adopted by the regulatory bodies of the European Union, Japan and the USA in 1998. This document united related guidance documents on statistical methodology from each of the three ICH regions, and meant that for the first time clear consistent guidance on statistical principles was available to those conducting and reviewing clinical trials. At the 10th anniversary of the guideline's adoption, this paper discusses the influence of ICH E9 by presenting a perspective on how approaches to some aspects of clinical trial design, conduct and analysis have changed in that time in the context of regulatory submissions in the European Union.     

EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING AND NON‐NEGATIVE DATA

The most common forecasting methods in business are based on exponential smoothing, and the most common time series in business are inherently non‐negative. Therefore it is of interest to consider the properties of the potential stochastic models underlying exponential smoothing when applied to non‐negative data. We explore exponential smoothing state space models for non‐negative data under various assumptions about the innovations, or error, process. We first demonstrate that prediction distributions from some commonly used state space models may have an infinite variance beyond a certain forecasting horizon. For multiplicative error models that do not have this flaw, we show that sample paths will converge almost surely to zero even when the error distribution is non‐Gaussian. We propose a new model with similar properties to exponential smoothing, but which does not have these problems, and we develop some distributional properties for our new model. We then explore the implications of our results for inference, and compare the short‐term forecasting performance of the various models using data on the weekly sales of over 300 items of costume jewelry. The main findings of the research are that the Gaussian approximation is adequate for estimation and one‐step‐ahead forecasting. However, as the forecasting horizon increases, the approximate prediction intervals become increasingly problematic. When the model is to be used for simulation purposes, a suitably specified scheme must be employed.     

WEEKDAY-ONLY POLLING AND PARTISAN SUPPORT LEVELS: EVIDENCE FROM NEW ZEALAND

Some scholars have argued that opinion polls conducted only on weekday evenings are likely to be biased in favour of right-wing parties, but there is no scholarly consensus on this. This paper presents evidence from New Zealand suggesting that weekday-only polling consistently increases the reported support levels for right-wing parties. Polls conducted only on weekdays in New Zealand give estimated support levels for the major right-leaning party approximately five percentage points higher than do concurrent polls that survey voters both on weekdays and during the weekend. Results for left-leaning parties are also broadly consistent with this effect.