Contract Pricing in Consumer Credit Markets

We analyze subprime consumer lending and the role played by down payment requirements in screening high‐risk borrowers and limiting defaults. To do this, we develop an empirical model of the demand for financed purchases that incorporates both adverse selection and repayment incentives. We estimate the model using detailed transaction‐level data on subprime auto loans. We show how different elements of loan contracts affect the quality of the borrower pool and subsequent loan performance. We also evaluate the returns to credit scoring that allows sellers to customize financing terms to individual applicants. Our approach shows how standard econometric tools for analyzing demand and supply under imperfect competition extend to settings in which firms care about the identity of their customers and their postpurchase behavior.     

Inference and rare event simulation for stopped Markov processes via reverse-time sequential Monte Carlo

We present a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm for Markov chain trajectories with proposals constructed in reverse time, which is advantageous when paths are conditioned to end in a rare set. The reverse time proposal distribution is constructed by approximating the ratio of Green’s functions in Nagasawa’s formula. Conditioning arguments can be used to interpret these ratios as low-dimensional conditional sampling distributions of some coordinates of the process given the others. Hence, the difficulty in designing SMC proposals in high dimension is greatly reduced. Empirically, our method outperforms an adaptive multilevel splitting algorithm in three examples: estimating an overflow probability in a queueing model, the probability that a diffusion follows a narrowing corridor, and the initial location of an infection in an epidemic model on a network.     

The Muleteers of Miravet and their Social and Material Spacetime

In this paper I analyze the recollections of the former muleteers of Miravet (Catalonia, Spain) on what they marketed, how they marketed, to whom they marketed, and where and when they did so. The muleteers peddled their merchandise during roughly the first half of this century, a period in which Spain transformed from an agricultural society into an industrial one, and thus these recollections offer their perspective on this transformation. This perspective is brought out by a phenomenological focus on how these muleteers, by their practice of peddling, created and structured a spacetime consisting of dialectically related social relationships through which muleteers purchased and marketed their merchandise, and material characteristics of this merchandise.     

Childhood family structure and schooling outcomes: evidence for Germany

We analyze the impact on schooling outcomes of growing up in a non-intact family in Germany. We find that this experience is associated with worse outcomes according to estimates from models that do not control for possible correlations between common unobserved determinants of family structure and educational performance. Evidence of adverse effects emerges also when endogeneity is accounted for. In such cases, however, the point estimates are typically smaller, and their confidence intervals are large enough to include zero, particularly for individuals who grew up in Western Germany.     

Cans and cants: Computational potentials for multimodality with a case study in head position

As the study of embodiment and multimodality in interaction grows in importance, there is a need for novel methodological approaches to understand how multimodal variables pattern together along social and contextual lines, and how they systematically coalesce in communicative meanings. In this work, we propose to adopt computational tools to generate replicable annotations of bodily variables: these can be examined statistically to understand their patterning with other variables across diverse speakers and interactional contexts, and can help organize qualitative analyses of large datasets. We demonstrate the possibilities thereby with a case study in head cant (side‐to‐side tilt of the head) in a dataset of video blogs and laboratory‐collected interactions, computationally extracting cant and prosody from video and audio and analyzing their interactions, looking at gender in particular. We find that head cant indexes an orientation towards the interlocutor and a sense of shared understanding, can serve a ‘bracketing’ function in interaction (for speakers to create parentheticals or asides), and has gendered associations with prosodic markers and interactional discourse particles.     

Older lesbian sexuality: identity, sexual behavior, and the impact of aging

In response to the very limited and mostly outdated literature on older lesbian sexuality, this exploratory study examined older lesbian sexual identity, romantic relationships, the impact of aging, and experiences of discrimination within these contexts. Utilizing an online survey that recruited via numerous online lesbian communities and snowball sampling, 456 lesbians over the age of 50 responded to closed, Likert scale, and open-ended questions that provided a preliminary understanding of older lesbian sexuality. The results indicated that older lesbians have experienced fluidity in past romantic and sexual relationships, as well as in erotic fantasies, despite strong identification with being lesbian. The findings also indicate a decreased focus on sexuality in the context of relationships, with more focus on stability and continuity. Future research is needed that provides greater specificity and detail about older lesbian conceptions of sexual behavior and sexual identity labels, as well as specific sexual behaviors.     

Gympie’s country music Muster: Creating a cultural economy from a local tradition

This paper provides an historical analysis of the National Country Music Muster, a country music festival held in a forest outside of Gympie, a town in rural southeast Queensland, Australia, between the period 1982 and 2006 (the first twenty-five years of the event). This article analyses the origins of the Muster, demonstrating how local events are often developed as a result of regional traditions and assets, or ‘countryside capital’ (Garrod et al., 2006). While this countryside capital was used to develop the Muster, this paper will demonstrate the event created its own capital, which the Gympie community has then utilised. The Muster has enabled the development of community capacity in three key ways: community not-for-profit groups have received increased income through participation as volunteers at the Muster; collaborative efforts between groups have developed senses of community on site; and the Muster has fostered social capital development by encouraging volunteer groups to work on site, all of which, of course, ensures the Muster continues to operate. Additionally, the Muster has provided the impetus for the creation of two country music focused cultural institutions in Gympie, as well as several spin-off events, which seek to capitalise on the increased traffic through town during the Muster period. Each of these institutions and spin off events has helped embed country music within Gympie’s cultural economy. Further, they provide a clear demonstration of a rural community actively and creatively deploying its cultural capital in order both to buttress itself against fluctuations in the town’s fortunes and to assert a locally relevant country identity.