Community exercise program for older adults recovering from hip fracture: a pilot study

Community-based rehabilitative exercise programs might be an effective means to improve functional outcomes for hip-fracture patients. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of a community exercise program (CEP) for older adults recovering from hip fracture. Twenty-five older adults (mean age 80.0 +/- 6.0 years; 24 women; 71 +/- 23 days post-hip fracture) participated in this pilot study (17 exercise, 8 control). The CEP involved functional stepping and lower extremity-strengthening exercises. Control participants received only standard outpatient therapy. Measures of functional mobility, balance confidence, falls efficacy, lower extremity strength, and daily physical activity were evaluated at baseline and at 16 weeks. Improvements for self-reported physical activity, mobility, balance, and knee-extensor strength were observed for the CEP group. This study demonstrated that a CEP is beneficial for community-dwelling older adults post-hip fracture.     

A Probabilistic Model of the Economic Risk to Britain's Railway Network from Bridge Scour During Floods

Scour (localized erosion by water) is an important risk to bridges, and hence many infrastructure networks, around the world. In Britain, scour has caused the failure of railway bridges crossing rivers in more than 50 flood events. These events have been investigated in detail, providing a data set with which we develop and test a model to quantify scour risk. The risk analysis is formulated in terms of a generic, transferrable infrastructure network risk model. For some bridge failures, the severity of the causative flood was recorded or can be reconstructed. These data are combined with the background failure rate, and records of bridges that have not failed, to construct fragility curves that quantify the failure probability conditional on the severity of a flood event. The fragility curves generated are to some extent sensitive to the way in which these data are incorporated into the statistical analysis. The new fragility analysis is tested using flood events simulated from a spatial joint probability model for extreme river flows for all river gauging sites in Britain. The combined models appear robust in comparison with historical observations of the expected number of bridge failures in a flood event. The analysis is used to estimate the probability of single or multiple bridge failures in Britain's rail network. Combined with a model for passenger journey disruption in the event of bridge failure, we calculate a system‐wide estimate for the risk of scour failures in terms of passenger journey disruptions and associated economic costs.     

A Starting Point for Navigating the World of Daily Fantasy Basketball

Fantasy sports, particularly the daily variety in which new lineups are selected each day, are a rapidly growing industry. The two largest companies in the daily fantasy business, DraftKings and Fanduel, have been valued as high as $2 billion. This research focuses on the development of a complete system for daily fantasy basketball, including both the prediction of player performance and the construction of a team. First, a Bayesian random effects model is used to predict an aggregate measure of daily NBA player performance. The predictions are then used to construct teams under the constraints of the game, typically related to a fictional salary cap and player positions. Permutation based and K-nearest neighbors approaches are compared in terms of the identification of “successful” teams—those who would be competitive more often than not based on historical data. We demonstrate the efficacy of our system by comparing our predictions to those from a well-known analytics website, and by simulating daily competitions over the course of the 2015–2016 season. Our results show an expected profit of approximately $9,000 on an initial $500 investment using the K-nearest neighbors approach, a 36% increase relative to using the permutation-based approach alone. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

The Relationships Between Sense of Belonging to a Community GLB Youth Group; School,Teacher, and Peer Connectedness; and Depressive Symptoms: Testing of a Path Model

Research indicates belonging to a gay, lesbian, and bisexual (GLB) support group is indirectly associated with fewer depressive symptoms, via higher levels of sense of belonging to the general community. The current study extended this research by testing a path model to determine whether school, teacher, and peer connectedness are influenced by sense of belonging to a community GLB youth group. A sample of 82 Australian GLB adolescents aged 14 to 18 years who currently attend high school completed the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale, the Psychological Subscale of the Sense of Belonging Instrument, and the Social Questionnaire for Secondary Students. Results indicated very good model fit. Higher levels of belonging to a community GLB youth group were associated with higher levels of school, teacher, and peer connectedness, but only peer connectedness was directly associated with depressive symptoms. Higher levels of school and teacher connectedness were associated with higher levels of peer connectedness. Interventions aimed at increasing belonging to a community GLB youth group may have indirect benefits for the mental health of GLB adolescents, via higher levels of school, teacher, and peer connectedness.     

Distribution of Exposure Concentrations and Doses for Constituents of Environmental Tobacco Smoke

The ultimate goal of the research reported in this series of three articles is to derive distributions of doses of selected environmental tobacco smoke (ETS)-related chemicals for nonsmoking workers. This analysis uses data from the 16-City Study collected with personal monitors over the course of one workday in workplaces where smoking occurred. In this article, we describe distributions of ETS chemical concentrations and the characteristics of those distributions (e.g., whether the distribution was log normal for a given constituent) for the workplace exposure. Next, we present population parameters relevant for estimating dose distributions and the methods used for estimating those dose distributions. Finally, we derive distributions of doses of selected ETS-related constituents obtained in the workplace for people in smoking work environments. Estimating dose distributions provided information beyond the usual point estimate of dose and showed that the preponderance of individuals exposed to ETS in the workplace were exposed at the low end of the dose distribution curve. The results of this analysis include estimations of hourly maxima and time-weighted average (TWA) doses of nicotine from workplace exposures to ETS (extrapolated from 1 day to 1 week) and doses derived from modeled lung burdens of ultraviolet-absorbing particulate matter (UVPM) and solanesol resulting from workplace exposures to ETS (extrapolated from 1 day to 1 year).     

Never Waste a Good Crisis: Towards Social Sustainable Development

The report by the Stiglitz Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress highlighted the idea that sustainability in essence is about quality of life. This paper discusses and elaborates this notion. It argues that sustainable development should be seen as a process which does not focus on economic development alone, but which also includes well-balanced ecological and social development. Social aspects of sustainability deserve attention because of their instrumental and intrinsic relevance. A society needs a sense of community and commitment. The presence of social capital is very important for the liveability of a society. It is argued that the amount of social capital may fluctuate over time. This means that in the long term, future societies may be better in a social respect (more trust, more participation, less inequality) than today’s. Ensuring social sustainability is thus not only a matter of ensuring that present social cohesion is preserved, but also ensuring that this cohesion will increase or improve. The paper ends by addressing lines of research on social sustainability. The following research themes are mentioned: (1) Quality of life, social capital and social cohesion in a longitudinal perspective. (2) ‘Sustainability of what, why and for whom?’ Sustainability as an issue of choice: trade-offs. (3) Civil society and governance aspects of sustainability. (4) Public perceptions, values and opinions with regard to sustainability issues and (5) Fairness and inequality in relation to sustainability policy, both nationally and internationally.     

Children taken into care and custody and the ‘troubled families’ agenda in England

Children taken into care and custody are arguably the most vulnerable and problematic groups within the wider debate and responses developing to the ‘troubled families’ agenda in England. They represent what the state most wants to avoid when it intervenes in the life of a family. This paper is based on an analysis of the service involvement and needs of the 196 children taken into care or custody over a 3‐year period (2008–2011) in one city local authority in England. The research was undertaken to inform the response to prevention of entry into care and custody which was the original focus of the most intensive part of the troubled families programme in the city. Interviews with 10 senior professionals from a range of agencies involved in setting up this local programme, explored the way the emerging troubled families agenda was shaping ideas about the understanding of and response to the needs of these children and their families. Key findings of the study illustrate the range and complexity of need as well as the sequence and amount of agency involvement. Professionals were often critical of the thinking behind the troubled families agenda, but were positive and creative about new ways of working with these families.