Some Properties and Generalizations of Non-negative Bayesian Time Series Models

We study the most basic Bayesian forecasting model for exponential family time series, the power steady model (PSM) of Smith, in terms of observable properties of one-step forecast distributions and sample paths. The PSM implies a constraint between location and spread of the forecast distribution. Including a scale parameter in the models does not always give an exact solution free of this problem, but it does suggest how to define related models free of the constraint. We define such a class of models which contains the PSM. We concentrate on the case where observations are non-negative. Probability theory and simulation show that under very mild conditions almost all sample paths of these models converge to some constant, making them unsuitable for modelling in many situations. The results apply more generally to non-negative models defined in terms of exponentially weighted moving averages. We use these and related results to motivate, define and apply very simple models based on directly specifying the forecast distributions.     

Interactive technology assessment of paediatric cochlear implantation

Interactive technology assessment is a novel approach to evaluating (health) technology, which philosophically draws from the works of Rawls and Habermas. That is, it seeks to organise a practical setting for discursive ethics in order to find a legitimate basis for policy to be pursued when the technology under scrutiny features a moral controversy. Interactive technology assessment involves a cycle of interviews with all stakeholders, who are explicitly asked to respond (anonymously) to the concerns and issues raised by other participants. This cycle is completed repeatedly, so that a process of vicarious learning develops. This process aims at identifying issues agreed and disagreed upon, on the basis of which widely endorsed policy recommendations can be formulated. This chapter involves an interactive technology assessment of paediatric cochlear implantation. The rationale, the design, and the results are explained, as well as the main ethical aspects of the procedure.

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Zusammenfassung Interactive technology assessment (interaktive Technologiefolgenabschätzung) ist ein neuer Ansatz zur Bewertung von (Medizin-)Technologie, der in philosophischer Hinsicht auf Arbeiten von Rawls und Habermas zurückgreift, das heißt, sie versucht eine praktische Situation für diskursive Ethik zu organisieren, um eine legitime Grundlage für eine Politik zu finden, die zu verfolgen ist, wenn die betreffende Technologie durch eine moralische Kontroverse gekennzeichnet ist. Zur interaktiven Technologiefolgenabschätzung gehört ein Zyklus von Befragungen aller Interessengruppen, die explizit gebeten werden, sich zu den Bedenken und Fragen anderer Teilnehmer (anonym) zu äußern. Dieser Zyklus wird mehrmals wiederholt, sodass sich ein Prozess mittelbaren Lernens entwickelt. Dieser Prozess hat das Ziel, Punkte zu identifizieren, in denen Übereinstimmung herrscht, und Punkte, über die die Teilnehmer sich nicht einigen können. Auf dieser Basis können dann allgemein gebilligte Politikempfehlungen formuliert werden. Dieses Kapitel befasst sich zum Beispiel mit der interaktiven Bewertung der Technologie der Cochlea-Implantation in Kindern. Es erklärt die Begründung, den Entwurf und die Ergebnisse der Prozedur sowie ihre wichtigsten ethischen Aspekte.

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Résumé Lévaluation technologique interactive est une nouvelle approche pour évaluer les technologies (médicales), qui tire son origine des travaux de Rawls et Habermas. Cela signifie quelle tente de dorganiser une configuration pratique pour léthique discursive, afin de trouver une base légitime aux politiques à suivre lorsque la technologie examinée fait lobjet dune controverse morale. Lévaluation technologique interactive implique un cycle de sondages auprès de tous les groupes concernés, auxquels il est explicitement demandé de sexprimer (anonymement) sur les préoccupations et les questions soulevées par dautres participants. Ce cycle est répété à plusieurs reprises, de sorte quun processus dapprentissage indirect se développe. Cette démarche vise à identifier les points suscitant laccord ou le désaccord, sur la base desquels des recommandations politiques approuvées par une large majorité peuvent être formulées. Ce chapitre porte sur lévaluation technologique interactive dans le cas des implants cochléaires en pédiatrie. Il présente le raisonnement, la conception et les résultats de la démarche de même que ses principaux aspects éthiques.

     

Food Safety in the Domestic Environment: An Interdisciplinary Investigation of Microbial Hazards During Food Preparation

It has been established that, to a considerable extent, the domestic hygiene practices adopted by consumers can result in a greater or lesser microbial load in prepared meals. In the research presented here, an interdisciplinary study is reported in which interviews, observations of consumers preparing a recipe, and microbial contamination of the finished meals were compared. The results suggest that, while most consumers are knowledgeable about the importance of cross-contamination and heating in preventing the occurrence of foodborne illness, this knowledge is not necessarily translated into behavior. The adoption of habitual cooking practices may also be important. Potentially risky behaviors were, indeed, observed in the domestic food preparation environment. Eighteen of the participants made errors in food preparation that could potentially result in cross-contamination, and seven participants allowed raw meat juices to come in contact with the final meal. Using a tracer microorganism the log reduction as a result of consumer preparation was estimated at an average of log 4.1 cfu/salad. When combining these findings, it was found that cross-contamination errors were a good predictor for log reduction. Procedural food safety knowledge (i.e., knowledge proffered after general open questions) was a better predictor of efficacious bacterial reduction than declarative food safety knowledge (i.e., knowledge proffered after formal questioning). This suggests that motivation to prepare safe food was a better indicator of actual behavior than knowledge about food safety per se.     

The Mother and the Process of Truth

Beginning with associations on its own origins, this essay reflects on the precocity of “proto-gay” children, those born in the shadow of Stonewall, whose sexuality already imagined a different future. It postulates that there are multiple points of origin for reconstructing what we conventionally call the preoedipal “past.”     

Pathways to Retirement and Mortality Risk in The Netherlands

The success of policies aimed at keeping older workers in employment until the statutory retirement age in part depends on the health of these workers. For this reason we examine to what extent pathways to statutory retirement other than employment are associated with adverse health conditions as measured by increased mortality risk during retirement. To do so, we estimate a mortality risk model using Dutch administrative data. We find, conditional on labor market status at the age of 58 and compared to individuals who are employed until the statutory retirement age of 65, no increased mortality risk among individuals who, between the ages of 58 and 65, have been in early retirement or unemployment and an increased mortality risk among individuals who have drawn disability insurance benefits. Our results suggest that older workers other than those who qualify for disability insurance benefits, may, on average, have no significant health conditions that could adversely impact the effectiveness of reforms that create stronger financial incentives for continued employment until age 65.     

Creating culturally sustainable agri-environmental schemes

Evidence is emerging from across Europe that contemporary agri-environmental schemes are having only limited, if any, influence on farmers’ long-term attitudes towards the environment. In this theoretical paper we argue that these approaches are not ‘culturally sustainable’, i.e. the actions are not becoming embedded within farming cultures as part of conventional ‘good farming’ practice. We propose (following Bourdieu) that, in order to culturally embed the environmental values, beliefs and knowledges that underlie such schemes, policy-makers need to devise approaches that allow the creation of cultural and social capital within farming communities - rather than simply compensating for economic capital lost. We outline the theoretical basis of our position and discuss how the contemporary agri-environmental approach of paying for specified environmental management services restricts the ability of such schemes to generate cultural and, thereby, social capital. Finally, we outline two possible ways of accounting for cultural capital in scheme creation: either through the development of measures of cultural capital that enable its incorporation into contemporary economic models or through a major revision to the way we construct and apply agri-environmental schemes.     

Regional listening forums: an examination of the methodologies used by the child welfare league of America and lambda legal to highlight the experiences of LGBTQ youth in care

In 2002, the Child Welfare League of America (CWLA) and the Lambda Legal Defense and Education Fund began Fostering Transitions: CWLA/Lambda Joint Initiative to Support LGBTQ Youth and Adults Involved with the Child Welfare System. To document the needs of lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and questioning (LGBTQ) youth, as well as identify strategies for systems improvement, initiative staff associated with the joint initiative conducted a series of Regional Listening Forums in 13 cities in the United States. More than 500 participants attended the forums, representing 22 states from every region in the country. Participants included former and current youth in care as well as the adults who work most closely with them. This article focuses on the methodologies on which the forums were developed and conducted. I realized that being gay is not my problem. It's their problem. I see it as a social disease. I try not to get involved in negative communities. But I do try to teach them. I'd rather teach them than ignore them. Otherwise, the ignorance will continue and nothing will ever be done about it.