Risk Communication in The Netherlands: The Monitored Introduction of the EC "Post-Seveso" Directive

Implementation of article 8.1 of the EC-"Seveso" Directive (82/501/EC) is now under way in many countries in Europe. In The Netherlands, the implementation of the Directive started with a carefully monitored introduction of active information provision at two sites (Dordrecht and Elst). This introduction was supported by a multidisciplinary research group. This group helped to develop the risk communication program and also played a role in the evaluation of the program. This paper describes these processes and their evaluation. We will focus on the design of the risk communication programs and the effects of the programs on knowledge and attitudes of the local target groups. This effort and its results clearly started an institutional learning process involving governmental bodies at several organizational levels (local, regional, and national), and industrial organizations (individual firms and organizations of industries). Monitoring the design, the implementation, and the effects of active information provision proves an effective means to gain experience with the implementation of the Seveso Directive and could help to facilitate further implementation.     

A Bayesian nonparametric estimator based on left censored data

Summary This paper introduces a Bayesian nonparametric estimator for an unknown distribution function based on left censored observations. Hjort (1990)/Lo (1993) introduced Bayesian nonparametric estimators derived from beta/beta-neutral processes which allow for right censoring. These processes are taken as priors from the class ofneutral to the right processes (Doksum, 1974). The Kaplan-Meier nonparametric product limit estimator can be obtained from these Bayesian nonparametric estimators in the limiting case of a vague prior. The present paper introduces what can be seen as the correspondingleft beta/beta-neutral process prior which allow for left censoring. The Bayesian nonparametyric estimator is obtained as in the corresponding product limit estimator based on left censored data.     

Class,work and family in women's lives

Interviews with white, working professional and working class mothers suggest that these women share values about work, family and on-the-job sociality. Respondents draw from a common value system, and many of the statements voiced by one group are echoed in the other. Work and motherhood are important paths to the development of individual identity for both working class and professional women. Differences in jobs, however, lead to differences in the actualization of values in their lives. Professional women are pulled in two directions and face continuing dilemmas in balancing careers which extract strong commitments from them and the demands of motherhood. Working class women's jobs do not require the same intensity of commitment, and they find it easier to meet their families' demands on their time. But conceptualizing their work as meaningful becomes more difficult than it is for professional women. Sociality is the third area of concern. Women in this study emphasized sociality because it allowed them to complete their work more effectively. It also served expressive functions; some women made friends at work. Some de-emphasized sociality if it interfered with their work identities. The importance of sociality was not necessarily dependent upon respondents' class location.I would like to thank Harold Bershady, Charles Bosk, and Robin Leidner for their comments and encouragement during the research and writing of this project. I would also like to thank M. E. Hughes, several anonymous reviewers, andQualitative Sociology for their helpful comments on earlier version of this article.     

The effect of public policies on recent Swedish fertility behavior

In the literature the recent upsurge in period birth rates is seen as evidence of a pronatalist effect of Sweden's extensive social insurance programs. Yet, these explanations can not account for the downturn in birth rates in the 1970s, the delay in childbearing, and the constancy of cohort birth rates which characterize recent Swedish fertility behavior. To summarize the effect of Sweden's economic and policy environment on the observed fertility patterns, I use a neoclassical economic framework to develop the shadow price of fertility. Although strong simplifying assumptions are imposed, the estimated price series exhibit a negative relationship with period fertility rates and the change in the estimated relative prices of fertility over the life cycle lend modest support for the delayed childbearing.The first draft of this paper was written while I was a National Fellow at the Hoover Institution. The research was supported by grants number HD-19226 and HD-28685 from the National Institute of Child Health and Development. I thank Glen Cain, John Kerman, Tom MaCurdy, Duncan Thomas, Michael Tilkin, and seminar participants at University of Illinois, Hoover Institution, and University of Wisconsin for useful comments.     

The prevalence of problem and pathological gambling: A critical analysis

Prevalence of pathological gambling refers to the percentage of cases of pathological gambling occurring in the community at a given time. Prevalence studies conducted in different principalities throughout the world are reviewed, and it is found that none of them conforms to this definition of prevalence. The major error in all but the most recent surveys conducted is identified as the use of questions which ask whether gambling-related problems have ever occurred rather than whether they are currently occurring. This error will lead to an over-estimation of the prevalence of pathological gambling in society. The second major error identified in nearly all studies involves the accuracy of the screens being used to assess whether or not an individual is a pathological gambler. Concerns about the efficiency of the South Oaks Gambling Screen have not yet been satisfactorily resolved. None-the-less, the widespread use of the South Oaks Gambling Screen has made a valuable contribution to international comparisons of prevalence studies. Future work that explores the emerging relationship between levels of personal expenditure on gambling, types of gambling product and gambling-related problems are recommended.     

Productivity indices and survival rate estimates from MAPS,a continent-wide programme of constant-effort mist-netting in North America

The Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) programme is a cooperative effort to provide annual regional indices of adult population size and post-fledging productivity and estimates of adult survival rates from data pooled from a network of constant-effort mist-netting stations across North America. This paper provides an overview of the field and analytical methods currently employed by MAPS, a discussion of the assumptions underlying the use of these techniques, and a discussion of the validity of some of these assumptions based on data gathered during the first 5 years (1989-1993) of the programme, during which time it grew from 17 to 227 stations. Ageand species-specific differences in dispersal characteristics are important factors affecting the usefulness of the indices of adult population size and productivity derived from MAPS data. The presence of transients, heterogeneous capture probabilities among stations, and the large sample sizes required by models to deal effectively with these two considerations are important factors affecting the accuracy and precision of survival rate estimates derived from MAPS data. Important results from the first 5 years of MAPS are: (1) indices of adult population size derived from MAPS mist-netting data correlated well with analogous indices derived from point-count data collected at MAPS stations; (2) annual changes in productivity indices generated by MAPS were similar to analogous changes documented by direct nest monitoring and were generally as expected when compared to annual changes in weather during the breeding season; and (3) a model using between-year recaptures in Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) mark-recapture analyses to estimate the proportion of residents among unmarked birds was found, for most tropical-wintering species sampled, to provide a better fit with the available data and more realistic and precise estimates of annual survival rates of resident birds than did standard CJS mark-recapture analyses. A detailed review of the statistical characteristics of MAPS data and a thorough evaluation of the field and analytical methods used in the MAPS programme are currently under way.     

Human Interindividual Variability in Parameters Related to Health Risks

This paper reviews existing data on the variability in parameters relevant for health risk analyses. We cover both exposure-related parameters and parameters related to individual susceptibility to toxicity. The toxicity/susceptibility data base under construction is part of a longer term research effort to lay the groundwork for quantitative distributional analyses of non-cancer toxic risks. These data are broken down into a variety of parameter types that encompass different portions of the pathway from external exposure to the production of biological responses. The discrete steps in this pathway, as we now conceive them, are:Contact Rate (Breathing rates per body weight; fish consumption per body weight)Uptake or Absorption as a Fraction of Intake or Contact RateGeneral Systemic Availability Net of First Pass Elimination and Dilution via Distribution Volume (e.g., initial blood concentration per mg/kg of uptake)Systemic Elimination (half life or clearance)Active Site Concentration per Systemic Blood or Plasma ConcentrationPhysiological Parameter Change per Active Site Concentration (expressed as the dose required to make a given percentage change in different people, or the dose required to achieve some proportion of an individual's maximum response to the drug or toxicant)Functional Reserve Capacity–Change in Baseline Physiological Parameter Needed to Produce a Biological Response or Pass a Criterion of Abnormal FunctionComparison of the amounts of variability observed for the different parameter types suggests that appreciable variability is associated with the final step in the process–differences among people in functional reserve capacity. This has the implication that relevant information for estimating effective toxic susceptibility distributions may be gleaned by direct studies of the population distributions of key physiological parameters in people that are not exposed to the environmental and occupational toxicants that are thought to perturb those parameters. This is illustrated with some recent observations of the population distributions of Low Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol from the second and third National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys.     

College student bereavement experience in a Christian university

As part of the National College Grief Study, college student bereavement experience was examined specifically in a Christian university climate. Sex, year in school, and closeness to the deceased were measured in terms of academic and mental health outcomes and resources utilized. Females reported more mental health problems when close to the deceased, and seniors were less likely than first year students to utilize personal support resources of family and religion. During close losses, students experienced more mental health problems and negative social outcomes, but they did not access more resources. Recommendations for university personnel and suggestions for further research are given.