Culture,climate change and mobility decisions in Pacific Small Island Developing States

The Pacific Small Island Developing States are often considered on the frontline of climate change due to high levels of exposure to climate-related hazards and limited adaptive capacity to respond. In this context, Pacific Islanders may be displaced, or choose to migrate to escape risk and find more secure livelihoods. On the other hand, Pacific political and community leaders stress that mobility can be a threat to sovereignty and culture and should only be considered as a last resort. This paper adopts a cultural ecology framing to gain a greater understanding of these contested local discourses on climate change and human mobility in Kiribati, Tuvalu and Nauru through the use of the Q method. The results reveal a range of shared subjective understandings of climate change and human mobility which show that reasons for, and perceived outcomes of moving are inextricably linked. These subjective understandings highlight that culture, and in particular how Islanders relate to land and religion can influence decision-making, promoting or hindering mobility. The findings therefore support the need for further engagement with communities to recognise and validate their positions on climate change and human mobility to facilitate the planning and implementation of effective policy.

     

MONETARY POLICY SHOCKS,EXPECTATIONS, AND INFORMATION RIGIDITIES

This paper contributes to the literature by assessing expectation effects from monetary policy for G7 economies. We rely on expectation data from Consensus Economics and a panel vector autoregression framework, which accounts for international spillovers and time‐variation. We analyze whether monetary policy has changed the degree of information rigidity after the emergence of the subprime crisis and estimate effects of interest rate changes on expectations, disagreements, and forecast errors. We find strong evidence for information rigidities and identify higher forecast errors by professionals after monetary policy shocks. Our results suggest that the international transmission of monetary policy shocks introduces noisy information and partly increases disagreement among forecasters. (JEL E31, E52)     

Make way for the wealthy? Autonomous vehicles,markets in mobility,and social justice

ABSTRACT

The development of a ‘mobility as a service’ model for accessing urban transport via autonomous vehicles may be expected to have far-reaching implications for the economics of road transport. In particular, it would offer a new opportunity to price access to the roads in accordance with the principles of the free market. Once people are paying for mobility on the roads on a ‘per trip’ basis, it will be possible to offer different levels of access – and service – at different prices. According to hegemonic ideas in the transport planning and economics literature the introduction of such a ‘market in mobility’ would be an economically efficient way of allocating access to the scarce good of space on the roads. In this paper we draw attention to a number of ethical and political challenges to the appropriateness of the use of such a pricing mechanism in the context of urban mobility.     

A Social Cognitive Framework for Career Choice Counseling

This article extends social cognitive career theory by suggesting how several of its major hypotheses can be applied to counseling persons with career choice difficulties. Several theory-derived counseling strategies are described that can be used to assist clients in developing a broad array of career options, analyzing and overcoming barriers to career choice, and counteracting choice-limiting self-efficacy beliefs. Each strategy is illustrated with a case example. Future research needs related to the counseling model are discussed.     

Evolution of recent economic-demographic modeling: A synthesis

This paper develops a flexible framework for modeling population's role in economic growth by assessing and extending a rendering suggested by several Harvard economists. Our framework includes a ``productivity' model explaining output-per-worker growth and a ``translation' model translating that growth into per-capita terms. We specify a core economic model and several ``enriched' demographic variants that include dependency, size, and density. Regressions using a cross-country panel spanning the period 1960-1995 reveal that combined impacts of demographic change have accounted for approximately 20% of per capita output growth impacts, with larger shares in Asia and Europe. An earlier draft of this paper was presented at a conference on ``Population Change, Labor Market Transition and Economic Development in Asia,' Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan, 6–9 December 2002. A pre-publication version of this paper will be presented at a joint conference (by COE/JEPA) entitled ``Towards a new economic paradigm: Declining population growth, labor market transition and economic development under globalization,' held at the Awaji Yumebutai International Conference Center, Kobe, Japan, 17–19 December 2005. We have benefited from comments by Michelle Connolly, Andrew Mason, Pietro Peretto, Warren Sanderson, Alessandro Tarozzi, Jeffrey Williamson, and two anonymous referees. Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.     

Nice and Nasty Theory of Mind in Preschool Children: Nature and Nurture

Experimental research suggests the differentiation of ‘nice’ and ‘nasty’ theory of mind (ToM). Over 5000 parents from the Twins Early Development Study reported on nice (e.g., being considerate) and nasty (e.g., blaming others) behaviours following their twins’ second, third, and fourth birthdays. Factor analyses yielded four factors and it was proposed that these related to prosocial behaviour necessitating ToM (Nice ToM), antisocial behaviour necessitating ToM (Nasty ToM), and prosocial and antisocial behaviour not necessitating ToM (Nice and Nasty). Interscale correlations, gender differences, and their relationship with language were consistent with this distinction. Both ToM scales showed moderate heritability and significant environmental influences (shared and nonshared). Bivariate analyses indicated somewhat distinct aetiological influences on Nice ToM versus Nasty ToM. However, further research is needed to confirm whether this distinction reflects interactions between ToM and temperament, or two underlying genetic and cognitively distinct ToM abilities.     

Criminal Behavior and Rapid Community Growth: Examining the Evidence1

Abstract Sociologists have disagreed sharply over whether rapid, resource-related community growth leads to disproportionate increases in criminal activities. Enough studies have now accumulated, however, to permit a more comprehensive assessment. The existing studies fall into three categories. The first two, which employ county-level data and victimization surveys, have encountered inconclusive and mixed results. By contrast, the 23 before-and-after comparisons in specific communities have been highly consistent: All but 2 of the 23 report greater increases in criminal activity than in population (p <.0001 by the sign test). The mean ratio of increased crime to increased population is over 4.4 to 1; regression analyses lead to more conservative ratios ranging as low as 3.2 to 1 and as high as 3.6 to 1. Despite considerable variations in approaches, methods, and study communities, sufficiently consistent findings show that simple regression equations explain 85–98 percent of the variance. The weight of the accumulated evidence indicates that increases in criminal behaviors are significantly more than proportional to increases in populations in rapid-growth communities. Data from other studies would argue against a generic “social pathology” hypothesis; instead, the accumulated findings may best be explained by narrowly focusing on changes in community social structure that accompany rapid growth and result in impairment of informal social controls, particularly the declines in a community's density of acquaintanceship.     

Brief Family Therapies

A modified version of Guerin's (1976) classification was used to categorise the principal models of brief family therapy according to theoretical and technical dimensions. While all models stemmed from common origins, either psychodynamic or systems theory, they differed in three particular areas: the premises regarding the origin of symptoms, the aims of therapy, and the major strategies employed. Nevertheless, all models were in agreement on several aspects, including the principles underlying brief family therapy techniques, the focus on the family's current level of functioning, the importance of clearly defining the problem (but not necessarily in terms of traditional psychiatric diagnoses), and other family variables. A survey of the literature indicated that there was a paucity of scientifically acceptable investigations of brief family therapy, and thus, a lack of valid evidence that any model provided an effective approach to therapy.     

A Cognitive Approach to Career Services: Translating Concepts Into Practice

This article provides counselors with concept-based materials that clients can use to understand and structure the career problem-solving and decision-making process. Clients can use this knowledge to solve immediate career problems, transfer the knowledge to future career problems, or generalize the knowledge to other types of personal, social, and family problems.     

Ethics in Social Research—A Review Essay*

Ethical Issues in Social Science Research, edited by Tom L. Beauchamp, Ruth R. Faden, R. Jay Wallace, Jr., and LeRoy Walters. Baltimore and London: The Johns Hopkins Press, 1982. 436 pp.
Social Research Ethics, An Examination of the Merits of Covert Participant Observation, edited by Martin Bulmer. New York: Holmes & Meier, 1982. 284 pp.