The effect of omitted covariates in marginal and partially conditional recurrent event analyses

There have been many advances in statistical methodology for the analysis of recurrent event data in recent years. Multiplicative semiparametric rate-based models are widely used in clinical trials, as are more general partially conditional rate-based models involving event-based stratification. The partially conditional model provides protection against extra-Poisson variation as well as event-dependent censoring, but conditioning on outcomes post-randomization can induce confounding and compromise causal inference. The purpose of this article is to examine the consequences of model misspecification in semiparametric marginal and partially conditional rate-based analysis through omission of prognostic variables. We do so using estimating function theory and empirical studies.

     

Loss of urban forest canopy and the effects on neighborhood soundscapes

Urban Ecosystems - The urban landscape constitutes a key aspect of human - nature interactions, as more than 60% of the world’s population resides in cities and their suburbs. This study...     

Family Welfare Effort,Total Fertility,and In Vitro Fertilization: Explaining the Israeli Anomaly

The theory of family welfare effort is a leading macro‐sociological explanation of variation in human fertility. It holds that states which provide universally available, inexpensive, high‐quality day care, generous parental leave, and flexible work schedules lower the opportunity cost of motherhood. They thus enable women, especially those in lower socioeconomic strata, to have the number of babies they want. A considerable body of research supports this theory. However, it is based almost exclusively on analyses of Western European and North American countries. This paper examines the Israeli case because Israel's total fertility rate is anomalously high given its family welfare effort. Based on a review of the relevant literature and a reanalysis of data from various published sources, it explains the country's unusually high total fertility rate as the product of (1) religious and nationalistic sentiment that is heightened by the Jewish population's perception of a demographic threat in the form of a burgeoning Palestinian population and (2) the state's resulting support for pro‐natal policies, including the world's most extensive in vitro fertilization (IVF) system. The paper also suggests that Israel's IVF policy may not be in harmony with the interests of many women insofar as even women with an extremely low likelihood of becoming pregnant are encouraged to undergo the often lengthy, emotionally and physically painful, and risky process of IVF.     

Risk and punishment: The recent history and uncertain future of actuarial,algorithmic, and “evidence‐based” penal techniques

In recent decades, risk prediction has proliferated in the penal realm. Risk instruments currently guide an array of correctional decisions—such as participation in diversion programs, the provision of correctional services, and probation and parole supervision levels—and are being increasingly utilized or considered in pretrial detention and criminal sentencing. This article reviews empirical and theoretical accounts of the proliferation and effects of risk in the penal realm and also reflects on ongoing debates about the promises and perils of risk. Risk techniques have impacted the practices, discourses, and logics of punishment. Yet they have not triggered the abandonment of rehabilitative approaches (or retributive ones), nor have they replaced human judgment with a rationalized utopia or iron cage. This article also offers several interventions that complicate and further our understandings of risk. First, it highlights the complex entanglements between, on the one hand, actuarial and algorithmic risk instruments and, on the other, subjective, moral, and affective methods of evaluation. Second, it calls for increased attention to the performative effects of risk technologies: to the ways in which assessments not only report on but also create and alter the social world. The article concludes by reflecting on emerging topics and directions for future research.     

Rural Appalachian High School Students’ College‐Going and STEMM Perceptions

The authors examined perceptions of key social cognitive career theory (Lent, Brown, & Hackett, 1994) variables related to college‐going and science, technology, engineering, math, and medical (STEMM) careers in 10th and 11th graders (N = 892) attending 3 rural Appalachian high schools. The authors examined differences in perceptions related to gender, prospective 1st‐generation college student status, and the presence or absence of aspirations to pursue a STEMM career. Young women and young men scored similarly on all but 1 dependent variable, college‐going self‐efficacy (young women scored higher). Students who had STEMM career aspirations had higher scores on every measure than those who did not. Results suggest examining a 3rd prospective 1st‐generation college student status group—students who are unsure of their parents’ education level—as a distinct group in future research. By examining the college‐going and STEMM attitudes of rural Appalachian high school students, this study advances the literature and informs practitioners on reducing educational and vocational inequalities in this region.     

A port in a storm: Spontaneous volunteering and grassroots movements in Amsterdam. A resilient approach to the (European) refugee crisis

This article seeks to expand knowledge about spontaneous volunteering in Amsterdam during the European refugee crisis in the winter of 2015–16. As formal institutions, which relied on a top–down command and control approach, were unable to handle the relatively large number of refugees who arrived in a short period of time, grassroots social movements based on bottom–up participation emerged. Grassroots volunteers were not only politically engaged, protesting against the strict refugee reception policy, but they also became involved in the crisis response, showing a great deal of flexibility. Although the social movements struggled with their organizational structures, they were able to adapt their missions and structures to changing circumstances. To achieve a resilience‐based response to future refugee influxes, this article advocates for formal response organizations to dismantle their static, top–down approach, and for social movements to find a balance between participation and professionalism. If institutionalized refugee response organizations adapt to the dynamics of local conditions, they could create the conditions for resilient solutions in the crisis context.     

Determinants of business success: an examination of Asian-owned businesses in the USA

Using confidential microdata from the US Census Bureau, we investigate the performance of Asian-owned businesses. Using regression estimates and a special non-linear decomposition technique, we explore the role that class resources, such as financial capital and human capital, play in contributing to the relative success of Asian businesses. We find that Asian-owned businesses are more successful than white-owned businesses for two main reasons—Asian owners have high levels of human capital and their businesses have substantial start-up capital. Using detailed information on both the owner and the firm, we estimate the explanatory power of several additional factors.