On the strategic project management process in the UK upstream oil and gas sector

This paper reports on an investigation into strategic project management in the UK upstream oil and gas sector. The management process is represented by a set of elements which covers context, content and output and are balanced across financial, internal business, external environment, and learning and innovation perspectives. The paper uncovers elements that appear to explain successful project management and compares these with the elements to which managers pay greatest attention. There appears to be a mismatch between those elements which are associated with success and those receiving significant management attention.     

The Severity of Supply Chain Disruptions: Design Characteristics and Mitigation Capabilities

Supply chain disruptions and the associated operational and financial risks represent the most pressing concern facing firms that compete in today's global marketplace. Extant research has not only confirmed the costly nature of supply chain disruptions but has also contributed relevant insights on such related issues as supply chain risks, vulnerability, resilience, and continuity. In this conceptual note, we focus on a relatively unexplored issue, asking and answering the question of how and why one supply chain disruption would be more severe than another. In doing so, we argue, de facto, that supply chain disruptions are unavoidable and, as a consequence, that all supply chains are inherently risky. Employing a multiple‐method, multiple‐source empirical research design, we derive novel insights, presented as six propositions that relate the severity of supply chain disruptions (i) to the three supply chain design characteristics of density, complexity, and node criticality and (ii) to the two supply chain mitigation capabilities of recovery and warning. These findings not only augment existing knowledge related to supply chain risk, vulnerability, resilience, and business continuity planning but also call into question the wisdom of pursuing such practices as supply base reduction, global sourcing, and sourcing from supply clusters.     

Simulation Modeling and Analysis: A Collateral Application and Exposition of RFID Technology

RFID technology provides in‐depth, real‐time visibility into the status of assets throughout the supply chain. However, the deployment of RFID technology may have collateral value in the high‐quality data generated by these assets. This study explores the potential value of RFID data for tactical and strategic purposes and the redesign of processes within supply chain through the deployment of simulation modeling and analysis. We present a simulation study conducted at a regional hospital for which data related to trauma patient movement was collected with an RFID‐based system. We find that not only does this data serve as the basis for successful simulation modeling, but that RFID technology may address several data‐related challenges previously identified in the simulation literature.     

让你的谈话发挥效力

让我们想象这样一幅场景：一位人类学家来到你的办公室，他用了一整天时间跟在你身边，寸步不离地观察你的一言一行。当你一天工作结束之后，他告诉你，在这一整天当中，他只看到了一件事情——人们在不停地进行沟通。这位人类学家告诉你，在这一天的时间里，他参加了一些正式的会议，看到人们在进行面对面的交流，进行随机的讨论，或者是通过电子邮件进行沟通。“没错，确实如此，”你说道，“可那叉怎样呢？”人类学家告诉你，你在这一天当中所说的话大多数都是重复的。“这很好，”你告诉自己，     

PREDICTING LOTTO NUMBERS: A NATURAL EXPERIMENT ON THE GAMBLER'S FALLACY AND THE HOT‐HAND FALLACY

We investigate the “law of small numbers” using a data set on lotto gambling that allows us to measure players' reactions to draws. While most players pick the same set of numbers week after week, we find that those who do change, react on average as predicted by the law of small numbers as formalized in recent behavioral theory. In particular, players tend to bet less on numbers that have been drawn in the preceding week, as suggested by the “gambler's fallacy”, and bet more on a number if it was frequently drawn in the recent past, consistent with the “hot‐hand fallacy”.     

RISK AVERSION RELATES TO COGNITIVE ABILITY: PREFERENCES OR NOISE?

Recent experimental studies suggest that risk aversion is negatively related to cognitive ability. In this paper we report evidence that this relation may be spurious. We recruit a large subject pool drawn from the general Danish population for our experiment. By presenting subjects with choice tasks that vary the bias induced by random choices, we are able to generate both negative and positive correlations between risk aversion and cognitive ability. Our results suggest that cognitive ability is related to random decision making rather than to risk preferences. (JEL: C81, C91, D12, D81)     

Backward Induction Foundations of the Shapley Value

We present a noncooperative game model of coalitional bargaining, closely based on that of Gul (1989) but solvable by backward induction. In this game, Gul's condition of “value additivity” does not suffice to ensure the existence of a subgame perfect Nash equilibrium that supports the Shapley value, but a related condition—“no positive value‐externalities”—does. Multiple equilibria can arise only in the event of ties, and with a mild restriction on tie‐break rules these equilibria all support the Shapley value.     

Engaging Expert Peers in the Development of Risk Assessments

The participation of external technical experts in the development of risk assessment documents and methodologies has expanded and evolved in recent years. Many government agencies and authoritative organizations have experts peer review important works to evaluate the scientific and technical defensibility and judge the strength of the assumptions and conclusions (OMB, 2004; IPCS, 2005; IARC, 2006; Health Canada, 2007; U.S. EPA, 2006). Expert advice has been solicited in other forms of peer involvement, including peer consultation in, for example, the U.S. EPA's Voluntary Children's Chemical Evaluation Program (VCCEP). This article discusses how the principles and practices of peer review can be extended to other types of peer involvement activities (i.e., peer input and peer consultation) to develop high-quality risk assessment work products. A comprehensive process for incorporating peer input, peer consultation, and peer review into risk assessment science is outlined. Four key principles for peer involvement-independence, inclusion of appropriate experts, transparency, and a robust scientific process-are discussed. Recent examples of peer involvement in the development of Health Canada's Priority Substances and Domestic Substance List (DSL) programs under the Canadian Environmental Protection Act (CEPA) serve to highlight the concepts.     

Comparison of Six Dose-Response Models for Use with Food-Borne Pathogens

Food-related illness in the United States is estimated to affect over six million people per year and cost the economy several billion dollars. These illnesses and costs could be reduced if minimum infectious doses were established and used as the basis of regulations and monitoring. However, standard methodologies for dose-response assessment are not yet formulated for microbial risk assessment. The objective of this study was to compare dose-response models for food-borne pathogens and determine which models were most appropriate for a range of pathogens. The statistical models proposed in the literature and chosen for comparison purposes were log-normal, log-logistic, exponential, -Poisson and Weibull-Gamma. These were fit to four data sets also taken from published literature, Shigella flexneri, Shigella dysenteriae,Campylobacter jejuni, and Salmonella typhosa, using the method of maximum likelihood. The Weibull-gamma, the only model with three parameters, was also the only model capable of fitting all the data sets examined using the maximum likelihood estimation for comparisons. Infectious doses were also calculated using each model. Within any given data set, the infectious dose estimated to affect one percent of the population ranged from one order of magnitude to as much as nine orders of magnitude, illustrating the differences in extrapolation of the dose response models. More data are needed to compare models and examine extrapolation from high to low doses for food-borne pathogens.