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291.
A method for combining forecasts may or may not account for dependence and differing precision among forecasts. In this article we test a variety of such methods in the context of combining forecasts of GNP from four major econometric models. The methods include one in which forecasting errors are jointly normally distributed and several variants of this model as well as some simpler procedures and a Bayesian approach with a prior distribution based on exchangeability of forecasters. The results indicate that a simple average, the normal model with an independence assumption, and the Bayesian model perform better than the other approaches that are studied here. 相似文献
292.
In this essay, we argue that, following their perception of practices in the natural sciences the social sciences have reified methodology, making it the chief imperative of social investigation and using it to ground their knowledge claims. We find this to be the case even in the work of social scientists who try to overcome or reject the dominant positivist paradigm. We argue that this obsession with method has led the social sciences to abandon thinking-beyond-the-given in favor of small, specialized studies whose justification is no longer substantive but methodology driven. After a review of the history of the role of method in traditional philosophies of science, the essay turns to the work of recent critics of social science who have become increasingly dissatisfied with modeling the social sciences after the natural ones. We distinguish between a hermeneutic and phenomenological critique of positivism, both of which, we argue, end up reproducing the scientism they reject. We identify this problem in our careful readings of some of the most influential critics of Popperian scientific philosophy. In the final section, we distinguish between contemporary social science, situated in what we term the epistemological paradigm, and our own critical science, stemming from an alternate, ontohistorical tradition in the history of ideas. Here, we begin to lay out what a critical, nonmethodology-driven, reflective and historical science might look like. 相似文献
293.
In a series of major papers culminating in A Theory of Justice, John Rawls constructs an alternative to utilitarianism by developing a social contract theory of moral and political philosophy. Unfortunately, Rawls formulates the two basic principles upon which the theory rests in such a way as to restrict (unduly) the contract theory's applicability (see Section I). In this paper we present a more general discussion of the theory of justice that avoids the problems of Rawls' formulation and yet retains the important idea of justice as fairness and the contractarian approach (Section II). Later it is argued that this more general theory constitutes a bridge between the pure utilitarian theories and the social contract doctrines (Sections V and VI). The theory's advantages are demonstrated by applying it to a problem discussed by Rawls, intergenerational equity, and comparing the two solutions (Section III). Further comparisons are made and inferences drawn in the concluding three sections.Without implicating them, we would like to thank James M. Buchanan and David Lyons for comments on an earlier draft of this paper.
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294.
Margaret Soenser Breen Warren J. Blumenfeld Susanna Baer Robert Alan Brookey Lynda Hall Vicky Kirby Diane Helene Miller Robert Shail Natalie Wilson 《International Journal of Sexuality and Gender Studies》2001,6(1-2):7-23
In this interview, the coeditors, along with other contributors, ask Judith Butler a variety of questions regarding queer theory, gender identities, scientific and legal discourse, bodily abjection, race and class positioning, and political organizing. This range of subject matter suggests not only the breadth of Butler's work, but also its applicability to any number of people, whose relation to theory ranges from highly politicized to politically indifferent. The interview demonstrates the responsiveness of Butler's work to cultural translation and political action. 相似文献
295.
Burton L. Carlson Robert A. Goguen Phillip S. Jarvis Juliette N. Lester 《The Career development quarterly》2000,48(4):313-322
This article describes how career development programs became the focus of an international partnership between the United States and Canada. Beginning in 1976 in the United States, the National Occupational Information Coordinating Committee (NOICC) and its State Occupational Information Coordinating Committees (SOICCs) developed training and materials that promote the use of occupational and labor market information. Similarly, in the early 1970s, Canada began to explore the feasibility of creating a computer‐based career information delivery system. What follows is the story of an unusual and significant international collaboration. It concludes with identification of lessons learned. 相似文献
296.
297.
This paper studies the implementation of the coupling from the past (CFTP) method of Propp and Wilson (1996) in the set-up of two and three component mixtures with known components and unknown weights. We show that monotonicity structures can be exhibited in both cases, but that CFTP can still be costly for three component mixtures. We conclude with a simulation experiment exhibiting an almost perfect sampling scheme where we only consider a subset of the exhaustive set of starting values. 相似文献
298.
Trish Williams Jennifer Connolly Robert Cribbie 《Journal of research on adolescence》2008,18(1):145-172
The objectives of this research were to explore patterns of heterosexual activity in early adolescence and to examine the differential pathways to light and heavy heterosexuality. We utilized the National Longitudinal Survey of Canadian Children and Youth (NLSCY) in which heterosexual behaviors, as well as puberty, parenting processes, peer self‐concept, and problem behaviors were examined. The heterosexual activities of the majority of 12‐ and 13‐year‐old adolescents were largely confined to light activities of hugging, holding hands, and kissing. Heavy activities such as petting and sexual intercourse were reported less often. Using predictor variables from Cycle 1 of the NLSCY when participants were 10‐ and 11‐year‐olds, SEM analyses indicated that puberty and higher peer self‐concept shared significant direct pathways to both light and heavy heterosexuality. Heavy sexual activity, however, was uniquely associated with the risk factors of adolescent problem behaviors. Positive and hostile parenting styles were indirectly associated with light sexual activity through peer self‐concept. Positive and hostile parenting styles were also indirectly associated with heavy sexual activity through both peer‐oriented self‐concept and problem behaviors. Results support differential patterns and predictors of light and heavy sexuality in early adolescence. 相似文献
299.
Robert M. Bohm 《Sociological inquiry》1990,60(3):285-297
This study attempts to identify stimuli that produce changes in death penalty opinions and to determine whether public commitment to a death penalty opinion has an effect on that opinion. Consistent with previously reported findings, the results of this study suggest that public commitment has a substantial inhibitory effect on opinion change. Reasons for both changing and maintaining death penalty opinions are provided, and the implications of the research are discussed. 相似文献
300.
This article reports on a web-based vignette experiment investigating how likely subjects would be to participate in surveys varying in topic sensitivity and risk of disclosure. A total of 3,672 participants each responded to a series of eight vignettes, along with a variety of background questions, concerns about confidentiality, trust in various institutions, and the like.Vignettes were randomly assigned to respondents, such that each respondent was exposed to four levels of disclosure risk for each level of topic sensitivity (high versus low). Half the sample was assigned to receive a confidentiality statement for all eight vignettes, while the other half received no mention of confidentiality in the vignettes. The order of presentation of vignettes was randomized for each respondent.Respondents were also asked for their subjective perceptions of risk, harm, and social as well as personal benefits for one of the eight vignettes. Adding these questions permits us to examine how objective risk information presented by the researcher relates to the subjective perception of risk by the participant, and to assess the importance of both for their willingness to participate in the surveys described.Under conditions resembling those of real surveys, objective risk information does not affect willingness to participate. On the other hand, topic sensitivity does have such effects, as do general attitudes toward privacy and survey organizations as well as subjective perceptions of risk, harm, and benefits. We discuss the limitations and implications of these findings. 相似文献