The effects of different choices of order for autoregressive approximation on the Gaussian likelihood estimates for ARMA models

This paper investigates, by means of Monte Carlo simulation, the effects of different choices of order for autoregressive approximation on the fully efficient parameter estimates for autoregressive moving average models. Four order selection criteria, AIC, BIC, HQ and PKK, were compared and different model structures with varying sample sizes were used to contrast the performance of the criteria. Some asymptotic results which provide a useful guide for assessing the performance of these criteria are presented. The results of this comparison show that there are marked differences in the accuracy implied using these alternative criteria in small sample situations and that it is preferable to apply BIC criterion, which leads to greater precision of Gaussian likelihood estimates, in such cases. Implications of the findings of this study for the estimation of time series models are highlighted.     

Maternal Emotional Styles and Child Social Adjustment: Assessment, Correlates, Outcomes and Goodness of Fit in Early Childhood

The goals of the present research were to develop a modified version of an existing self‐assessment questionnaire designed to measure parents’ emotional style and to examine how the aspects of child regulation may moderate the relation between the emotional styles and social outcomes in childhood. Participants in Study 1 were 140 mothers and children (73 males, 67 females, M_age=56.0 months). The mothers completed the Maternal Emotional Styles Questionnaire (MESQ) to assess maternal emotional styles, and the Child Behavior Vignettes to assess parental goals across two scenarios. Participants in Study 2 were 50 mothers who were interviewed regarding their emotional styles using the Meta‐emotion Interview, and who also completed the MESQ. In Study 3, 100 mothers and children (41 males, 59 females, M=58.0 months) participated. The mothers completed the MESQ and the Child Behavior Questionnaire to assess the children's emotion and behavior regulation. Teachers completed the Child Behavior Scale to measure the indices of preschool adjustment. Results from Studies 1 and 2 indicated a two‐factor scale for the MESQ, with good psychometric properties (including stability, convergent validity, and construct validity). Results from Study 3 indicated different patterns of associations between maternal emotional styles, and child adjustment for well‐regulated versus dysregulated children.     

The Economics of the Counter-Reformation: Incumbent-Firm Reaction to Market Entry

The Catholic Church reacted to the Protestant Reformation by taking on the defensive posture of an incumbent-firm monopoly fighting to survive in the face of new competition. Contemporary firms typically respond to rival entry by rewriting their corporate charter. So did the medieval Catholic Church. But the Council of Trent failed as a reorganization plan because to keep economic rents flowing as before, it left intact the distribution of powers and property rights among the governing body of pope and cardinals—thus demonstrating that entrenched economic interests are powerful inducements to behavior, even in spiritual institutions.     

THE COLLEGE SPORTS REFORM MOVEMENT: Reframing the "Edutainment" Industry

Evidence abounds that college sports are rife with corruption. Over a century of reform efforts have failed to bring about lasting structural and cultural changes. Drawing on interview, participant observation, and archival data, the present study examines the diagnostic and prognostic framing of the contemporary college sports reform movement. The faculty-driven wing of the social movement has identified several problems with intercollegiate athletics including (1) commercialization; (2) university involvement in the entertainment industry; (3) damage to the integrity of higher education; (4) exploitation of athletes; and (5) harm to nonathletes. Reform proposals and strategies of The Drake Group and the Coalition on Intercollegiate Athletics are summarized and compared.     

Post-crisis communication and renewal: Expanding the parameters of post-crisis discourse

Crisis communication is growing as a field of study due in part to the frequency and high profile nature of recent crises such as 9/11, Anthrax and bioterrorism in the mail supply, the Tsunami in the Southeast Asia, and Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. In each of these crises, the role of communication has been highlighted. Communication is particularly challenging during crises because an immediate response is necessary, because of the looming threat, and because these situations are inherently uncertain. Much of the present literature suggests that managing image during a crisis is critical to an effective response [Benoit, W. L. (1995). Accounts, excuses and apologies. Albany, NY: State University of New York Press; Coombs, W. T. (1999). Ongoing crisis communication: Planning, managing, and responding. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage; Hearit, K. M. (1995). “Mistakes were made”: Organizations, apologia and crises of social legitimacy. Communication Studies, 46, 1–17]. Although image is important and embedded within the threat, uncertainty, and chaos of crisis so too is the opportunity for growth and renewal. In this case, depending upon the crisis, either issues of image restoration or renewal may emerge as more of a central theme in the post-crisis discourse. This paper argues that renewal, along with image restoration, is an important genre of post-crisis discourse. As a result, efforts to understand post-crisis communication should be expanded to include both image restoration and the discourse of renewal.     

Modeling Growth and Reduction of Microorganisms in Foods as Functions of Temperature and Time

Food safety objectives (FSOs) are established in order to minimize the risk of foodborne illnesses to consumers, but these have not yet been incorporated into regulatory policy. An FSO states the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a microbiological hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides an acceptable level of protection to the public and leads to a performance criterion for industry. However, in order to be implemented as a regulation, this criterion has to be achievable by the affected industry. In order to determine an FSO, the steps to produce and store that food need to be known, especially where they have an impact on contamination, growth, and destruction. This article uses existing models for growth of Listeria monocytogenes in conjunction with calculations of FSOs to approximate the outcome of more than one introduction of the foodborne organism throughout the food-processing path from the farm to the consumer. Most models for the growth and reduction of foodborne illnesses are logarithmic in nature, which fits the nature of the growth of microorganisms, spanning many orders of magnitude. However, these logarithmic models are normally limited to a single introduction step and a single reduction step. The model presented as part of this research addresses more than one introduction of food contamination, each of which can be separated by a substantial amount of time. The advantage of treating the problem this way is the accommodation of multiple introductions of foodborne pathogens over a range of time durations and conditions.     

早期酋长制群体的聚落形态比较研究——以内蒙古东部、安第斯山北部和美洲中部三个地区为例

对内蒙古东部、安第斯山北部和美洲中部三个地区的早期酋长制群体的聚落形态进 行的比较研究表明,尽管这三个地区的发展过程大致相当,但在这三个地区中,大体类似的转变 却以不同的方式发生,从而导致了三个各具特色的等级社会的出现。最初的、大规模的、以等级 制度原则组织起来的酋长制群体出现后,其发展轨道的早期阶段明显地为后来的、较大的、更复 杂的政治实体即国家的出现创造了条件。通过地域性聚落分析,可以发现这三个地区在不同规模 层次上的人口和社会组织的异同,其中在赤峰和奥哈卡(Oaxaca)地区都存在的小型群体却不见 于马格达雷那高地(AltoMagdalena)的现象,需要进行更深入的研究,才能进一步揭示出在马 格达雷那高地是什么样的社会交流把这些家庭联合成更大的社会团体。     

A Preliminary Investigation of Factors Associated With Job Loss Grief

This study investigated relationships among factors hypothesized as related to job loss grief. A summary grief score correlated positively with time since job loss and number of dependents, and negatively with length of notice. Perceived reemployment prospects and income loss related positively to some grief index subscales, as did the condition of living on one's own. Job duration correlated negatively with some grief responses. Implications for counseling and avenues for future research are discussed.