Fertility in urban areas of Mexico: Implications for the theory of the demographic transition

Recent investigations indicate that fertility is not universally associated with urbanization and economic development in the manner predicted by the theory of the demographic transition. It is possible, however, that these investigations only partially test the theory, for the degree of industrialization in urbanareas is rarely taken into account. Two hypotheses are tested based upon Mexican census and vital registration data for 1940-60: (a) urban fertility is inversely related to the proportion of the urban population employed in the secondary sector of the economy and (b) changes in urban fertility are inversely related to changes in the proportion of the urban population employed in the secondary sector of the economy.At each census date from 1940 to 1960, the association between urban fertility (age-standardized child-woman ratio adjusted for infant mortality) and the percent in the secondary sector is low and positive. In 1960, however, the association is negative (suggesting a possible change in the direction of the association), but city growth rates and the proportion of females married are more closely related to fertility than percent in the secondary sector. Hypothesis a, then, receives little support from the data.Much the same is true of hypothesis b. The association between changes in urban fertility and changes in the percent in the secondary sector is positive. Moreover, city growth rates and changes in the proportion literate explain more of the variation in fertility change than does the percent in the secondary sector.In addition, over-all fertility has risen since 1940, and this rise is pronounced in large urban areas. It is suggested that among certain segments of Mexican society, the response to economic development has been an increase rather than a reduction in fertility. It is further suggested that if city growth is indicative of rural-urban migration, the presence of large numbers of rural migrants in urbanareas may help to explain the decreasing size of the urban-rural fertility differential in Mexico.If this interpretation is correct, the theory of the demographic transition is in need of further modification, specification, and verification.     

Sibling resemblances in nonverbal skill and style

This study explored the hypothesis that siblings display a tendency for family resemblance in nonverbal decoding skills. Thirty-seven sibling pairs between the ages of 9 and 15 were administered the videotaped Nonverbal Discrepancy Test. This audiovisual test assesses (1) decoding accuracy—the extent to which subjects are able to identify affects (positivity and dominance) from face, body, and tone of voice cues; (2) discrepancy accuracy—the extent to which subjects recognize the degree of discrepancy between audio and video cues; and (3) video primacy—the extent to which subjects are more influenced by video (face or body) than by audio cues. Brother-brother pairs showed family resemblances in all three nonverbal indices, whereas brother-sister pairs displayed family similarity only in discrepancy accuracy. Overall, sibling pairs showed a tendency for family resemblance in nonverbal decoding. The processes that might lead siblings to develop similar patterns of nonverbal skills were discussed.     

Application of life table techniques to measurement of contraceptive effectiveness

Two problems are associated with the analysis of use-effectiveness of contraception. First, couples belonging to a sample of contraceptors typically vary in their monthly chances of contraceptive failure. Second, one does not observe for many, and perhaps a majority of the couples, how long they can remain protected with the contraceptive, because either they are stopping contraception to plan a pregnancy or else observation of them is being interrrupted by lost contact, by discontinuation of contraception for other reasons, or by the end of the study. It is argued that because of these two problems-namely, sample heterogeneity and incomplete histories-the Pearl pregnancy rate, which has been traditionally used to measure contraceptive effectiveness, is inadequate.A life table method is described that permits one to combine incomplete histories with complete ones for purposes of estimating the proportions of the sample that might have remained protected for specified periods if all members had remained under observation for these periods. The versatility of the techniques is illustrated in relation toa retrospective survey. A detailed account of procedure is given. Finally, it is shown that only under specialized conditions that are rarely met in practice is it possible to estimate the results of the new technique from knowledge of Pearl pregnancy rates alone.     

The economics of child care and public policy

Child care denotes any arrangement used by a working parent for care of a child, including self-care. This article is concerned with the factors that influence the demand for market modes of child care by two parent families with working mothers. A unique aspect of the study is that it is able to assess the impact of a child care subsidy program. An implication of the analysis is that the demand for market care is price elastic and is therefore susceptible to considerable change through programs of increased subsidization.     

Testing additivity in two-way classifications with no replications:the locally best invariant test

Row x column interaction is frequently assumed to be negligible in two-way classifications having one observation per cell. Absence of interaction allows the researcher to estimate experimental error and to proceed with making inferences about row and column effects. If additivity is suspect, it is conventional to test it against a structured alternative. If the structured alternative missspecifies the existing nonadditivity, then the power of the test is low, even if the magnitude of the existing nonadditivity is large. The locally best invariant (LBI) test of additivity is less subject to model misspecification because a particular structural alternative need not be hypothesized. This paper illustrates the LBI test of additivity and compares its power to that of the Johnson-Graybill likelihood ratio (LR) test. The LBI test performs as well as the LR test under a Johnson-Graybill alternative and performs better than the LR test under more general alternatives.     

THE INFLUENCE OF RELATIONSHIP ENHANCEMENT TRAINING ON DIFFERENTIATION OF SELF

The effectiveness of the Relationship Enhancement (RE) program (Guerney, 1987a) in increasing functional and basic levels of differentiation of self (Bowen, 1987a) was examined. Participants were 20 married couples who received training in relationship enhancement skills over six 2 1/2-hour sessions. Measures of differentiation of self, quality of relationship, and anxiety were obtained before and after training and at follow-up. The data show that significant increases in the functional and basic levels of differentiation of self occurred, a significant increase in the quality of relationship occurred, and significant negative correlations were found between differentiation of self and anxiety.     

Social aspects of economic readjustment in Hungary: A consideration of the role of social-economic indicators

Social Accounting Matrices have been used as a means of analysing national economic structure but it is argued in this paper that their usefulness could be enhanced if they were designed to include compatible sets of socio-economic indicators which might reflect physical stocks and flows rather than strictly monetary flows. This paper considers ways in which this might be accomplished, giving particular consideration to optional approaches based on economic, social and quality of life indicators. Three approaches to providing supplementary information to the conventional Social Accounting Matrix model are considered. These include the incorporation of indicators of characteristics of households, the disaggregation of data to a geographical base and use of indicators of social attitudes and expectations. Although work continues on the first two of these suggestions, certain results concerning the third are presented. A consideration is given to the use of available secondary data to meet the needs identified. It is shown, however, that such information fails to meet the objectives of the study for various reasons. It is concluded that the necessary data can only be collected by surveys. Preliminary results of a survey carried out in Hungary beginning in May 1991 by Gallup/Hungary are presented. This information reflects attitudes of the population toward changes which are taking place and would seem to provide a means of estimating perceptions of changes in expected quality of life that result from the current efforts toward economic readjustment in Hungary.