Picking the Winners: Politician vs. Voter Predictions of Two Controversial Ballot Measures

Abstract Both politicians and voters were asked to predict outcomesof two Oregon ballot measures in 1982. As expected, politicians'predictions always were closer to the mark than voters' were.Further, voters showed stronger signs of wishful thinking (the"Looking-Glass effect") in their predictions than did politicians.Using published preelection polls apparently improved politicians'accuracy in 1982, as well as voters' accuracy in a separate1984 survey. No other sources of data improved predictive accuracy.Findings have implications for theories of representative governmentand are consistent with a new theory of public opinion.     

Statistical materials. Part 3: fertility,mortality, and natural increase

In this one-page statistical summary, data are presented for the USSR as a whole on fertility, mortality, and natural increase. The data are for five-year intervals from 1940 to 1980 and for single years from 1980 and are presented in terms of both totals and rates.     

Treatment of the emotionally disturbed,mildly retarded youngster in the foster care system

This paper demonstrates the need for a broad array of clinical services in treating the emotionally disturbed, mildly retarded youngster in the foster care system. A hypothesis suggests that cognitive deficits and borderline pathology are interrelated, and that treatment involves modifications of traditional therapeutic techniques. The definition of clinical is expanded to include seemingly concrete and environmental services, in addition to the office therapy session. Finally, some systemic impediments to effective treatment of the population are explored.This paper was completed as a requirement of the Post-Master's Program in Advanced Clinical Social Work of Hunter College School of Social Work.     

The therapeutic utilization of canines in a child welfare setting

This article describes the therapeutic use of canines in child welfare work. The chronically rejected child, or those who virtually spend their entire youth in care, tend to develop a withdrawn, depressed, and suspicious posture toward their relations with other people. This ultimately results in their failure to respond to conventional treatment modalities. Under these circumstances, the canine intervention may prove to be a valuable adjunct, helping to develop and to expedite the process of the therapeutic alliance.This article is a revised version of one presented to meet the requirements for the Masters in Social Work Degree from Hunter College School of Social Work.     

Basic humanitarian principles applicable to non-nationals

This article examines the general status in international law of certain fundamental human rights to determine the minimum "no derogation" standards, and then surveys a number of formal agreements between stages governing migration matters, while examining some of the standard-setting work undertaken by the International Labor Organization (ILO) and other institutions. Article 13 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, proclaims the right of everyone to leave any country, including his or her own. The anti-discrimination provision is widely drawn and includes national or social origin, birth, or other status. Non-discrimination is frequently the core issue in migration matters; it offers the basis for a principles approach to questions involving non-nationals and their methodological analysis, as well as a standard for the progressive elaboration of institutions and practices. As a general rule, ILO conventions give particular importance to the principle of choice of methods by states for the implementation of standards, as well as to the principle of progressive implementation. Non-discrimination implies equality of opportunity in the work field, inremuneration, job opportunity, trade union rights and benefits, social security, taxation, medical treatment, and accommodation; basic legal guarantees are also matters of concern to migrant workers, including termination of employment, non-renewal of work permits, and expulsion. The generality of human rights is due not because the individual is or is not a member of a partucular group, and claims to such rights are not determinable according to membership, but according to the character of the right in question. The individualized aspect of fundamental human rights requires a case-by-case consideration of claims, and the recognition that to all persons now certain special duties are owed.     

The law,immigration and human rights: changing the Australian immigration control system

This paper examines the structure of the present system of immigration control in Australia in the context of its origin, evolution, and responses to current human rights and anti-discrimination standards. The system has serious shortcomings because it confers broad discredionary powers on immigration officals and provides no comprehensive system of judical review. Since the 1970s the system has been gradually losing its legitimacy and has become a subject of challenges by various groups; its efficiency has been undermined and it breeds social conflict and systematic human rights violations. The 1958 Migration Act contains a level of discretion unknown in other "machinery" legislation, conferring a wide range of discretionay power on 1) the minister, 2) authorized officers, 3) officers, and 4) prescribed authorities. The current review system, in response to political pressure and in the context of administrative law reforms, provides for limited access to judicial review under the Administrative Decisions Act of 1977. The ethnic gains of the 1970s were achieved when Australian society was going through a period of profound liberal changes. The 1980s have brought continuing high unemployment and high inflation rates, a large budget deficit and associated restraints in government expenditure, as well as a substantial cut in the immigrant intake after the Labor Victory of March, 1983. Overall, an entirely new immigration control system should be developed that will aim at providing a better balance between stability, predictability, and fairness of the system on the one hand, and the need for government to maintain its ability to adapt its program to fluctuations in economic and social conditions both within and outside Australia on the other hand.     

The guests who stayed--the debate on 'foreigners policy' in the German Federal Republic

The recruitment of "guest workers" between 1956 and 1973 by West German employers has given rise to new ethnic minorities. The Federal Republic of Germany (GFR) claims that it is not a country of immigration--a controversy that reflects the basic dilemma over policies towards foreign residents, who now comprise about 7% of the total population. The shift from temporary labor migration to long-term settlement has been accompanied by structural changes in the foreign resident population. The logic of the migratory process is inescapable: virtually all migrations, whether organized or spontaneous, start with movements of young adult workers. When recruitment stated in the late 1950s state migration policies were concerned only with short-term fulfillment of capital's labor requirements. The state established a system of institutionalized discrimination, through which temporary guest workers could be recruited, controlled, and sent away, as the interests of capital dictated. This policy was impracticable because many firms found that rotation led to problems of labor fluctuation and high training costs. The trend toward restrictive policies on migration continued in the early 1980s; rising unemployment and urban problems led to widespread hostility towards foreigners. 3 key issues need resolving quickly: 1) the granting of security of residence status, so that migrant families have a clear basis for planning their own future, 2) the extending of political rights to foreign residents, and 3) the issue of citizenship. Like other West European countries, the GFR has become a multiethnic society through the postwar labor migrations. The early reform of legal structures to give migrants more rights is a precondition for social peace, and for achieving the benefits which multiculturalism can offer to all members of society.     

Gender,academic careers,and the social psychology of aging

Because of cultural, historical and other social structural factors, men and women with the same chronological age have had quite different career trajectories. This paper examines how the different career-paths of men and women academics create differences in their images of aging, self and work. In-depth interviews (N=47) were conducted with a sample of male and female professors, currently between fifty and sixty years of age. Male respondents nearly uniformly followed continuous, linear careers while the women's careers were, with equal uniformity, discontinuous. Data suggest that this difference in career routes fashions different gender timeclocks, i.e., different experiences of aging.     

The utilitarian criterion,finite sensibility,and the weak majority preference principle

This study is a further analysis of the approach taken by Yew-Kwang Ng to derive the utilitarian criterion. Specific for the model is that individual preferences are finitely sensible. In this framweork an analysis of the consequences on social preferences when different kinds of value premises are imposed is made. It is found that the utilitarian criterion is the unique consequence only for very special choices of the value premise. In addition, uniqueness requires the underlying preferences be cardinal. It is also found that finite sensibility induces approximate cardinalization of preferences.I am grateful to Y.-K. Ng, two anonymous referees and an editor of this journal for helpful and constructive comments on earlier versions of this paper. The research was financially supported by the Swedish Council for Research in the Humanities and Social Sciences     

The encoding and decoding of liking from behavioral cues in both auditory and visual channels

Fifty high school students met in same-sex dyads for the first time over a cup of coffee in an experimental room designed as a comfortable living room. They then responded to a questionnaire designed to measure liking and perceived similarity. The interactions were video-taped. Two different panels of 6 judges later either viewed (video only) or heard (audio-only) the videotape and raed the subjects behavior on a number of scales. The judges also judged the degree of liking felt by the subjects by estimating subjects responses to the questionnaire. In addition gaze behaviour during the interaction was measured. Factor analysis demonstrated that 60% of the variance in The Liking Scale was attributed to 14 items relating to liking and perceived similarity. A separate factor to assess perceived similarity could not be found. Twenty-nine percent of the variance in the liking reported by subjects was predicted by an interrelated pattern of expressing behaviour including approproate looking, mutual gaze, self-disclosure, synchrony in movement and gesture, expressiveness of the face and liveliness of the voice. Video judges liking correlated 0.33 with subjects liking and 48% of the variance in their judgements was explained by the valid cues of looking and expressiveness of the face. Audio judges liking, although it correlated at 0.34 with video judges liking, did not correlate at all with subjects' liking because of an over-reliance on the important content cues. It is suggested that major problems leading to decoding inaccuracy may be over-reliance on content cues and over-confidence in the possibility of decoding accuracy. The evidence suggests that differences between subjects in encoding may be considerable.