Slope Estimation for Bivariate Longitudinal Outcomes Adjusting for Informative Right Censoring Using Discrete Survival Model: Application to the Renal Transplant Cohort

Patients undergoing renal transplantation are prone to graft failure which causes lost of follow-up measures on their blood urea nitrogen and serum creatinine levels. These two outcomes are measured repeatedly over time to assess renal function following transplantation. Loss of follow-up on these bivariate measures results in informative right censoring, a common problem in longitudinal data that should be adjusted for so that valid estimates are obtained. In this study, we propose a bivariate model that jointly models these two longitudinal correlated outcomes and generates population and individual slopes adjusting for informative right censoring using a discrete survival approach. The proposed approach is applied to the clinical dataset of patients who had undergone renal transplantation. A simulation study validates the effectiveness of the approach.     

Emerging trends in US retailing

This article examines the trends shaping the retail environment as we enter the next century. A modified delphi approach was used to access managerial perceptions of the changing retail landscape. Changes in consumer markets, price and branding strategy, store formats, retail institutions and applications of technology were derived from the analysis. From this, a series of managerial considerations are proposed to focus retail managers on developing new strategies to position themselves effectively in the new global marketplace.     

Estimation from Zero-Failure Data

When performing quantitative (or probabilistic) risk assessments, it is often the case that data for many of the potential events in question are sparse or nonexistent. Some of these events may be well-represented by the binomial probability distribution. In this paper, a model for predicting the binomial failure probability, P , from data that include no failures is examined. A review of the literature indicates that the use of this model is currently limited to risk analysis of energetic initiation in the explosives testing field. The basis for the model is discussed, and the behavior of the model relative to other models developed for the same purpose is investigated. It is found that the qualitative behavior of the model is very similar to that of the other models, and for larger values of n (the number of trials), the predicted P values varied by a factor of about eight among the five models examined. Analysis revealed that the estimator is nearly identical to the median of a Bayesian posterior distribution, derived using a uniform prior. An explanation of the application of the estimator in explosives testing is provided, and comments are offered regarding the use of the estimator versus other possible techniques.     

Strategic learning with scenarios

Since the oil shocks upset the business world in the 1970s, the use of multiple scenario analysis has been increasingly propagated as an approach to deal effectively with the many long-run uncertainties that surround business organisations. Since its introduction, the scenario approach has undergone some considerable changes and it is now claimed fulfils a diverse range of functions. Newly-added functions include the stretching of managers' mental models and the triggering and acceleration of processes of organisational learning. Although these functions currently get most of the attention in academic and management journals in recent years, a satisfying explanation of how scenarios fulfil these functions is still missing in the scenario literature. The scenario methodology seems to tell only part of the story suggesting that construing and using scenarios ‘simply’ consists of sequentially completing several distinct phases. If multiple scenario analysis really is able to fulfil the wide range of functions ascribed to it another, more dynamic process has to be hidden behind the rather static phase model. The scenario literature does not give any insight into this latter process. This article aims to increase the understanding of multiple scenario analysis by unravelling some of the mysteries surrounding it. For this purpose, the role of scenarios in strategic management is studied from a cognitive perspective. It appears that scenarios can deal effectively with several bottlenecks that potentially hinder organisational learning on a strategic level in organisations.     

Factors that influence reading and comprehension of branching instructions in self–administered questionnaires

Summary: In this paper we examine the tendency for branching instructions to be ignored, misread, or otherwise not appropriately followed so that item nonresponse occurs for follow–up questions. The potential influence on branching errors of seven features of question complexity are examined, including high number of question words, high number of answer categories, last categories branch, all categories branch, write–in responses, location at the bottom of a page, and high distance between the answer box and branching instruction. A logistic regression analysis revealed that question complexity had a tendency to increase certain errors, but not others.* A more detailed version of this paper with additional analysis and discussion is available at http://www.sesrc.wsu.edu/dillman/. The opinions expressed here are those of the authors, not necessarily of the institutions where they presently work or the U.S. Census Bureau, which provided financial support for the collection of these data. We would like to thank Aref Dajani and Yves Thibaudeau for their advice on the analysis used in this paper.     

Teacher–Child Relationships from Kindergarten to Sixth Grade: Early Childhood Predictors of Teacher-perceived Conflict and Closeness

This article examined general trends in teacher-reported conflict and closeness among 878 children from kindergarten through sixth grade, and examined early childhood characteristics that predict differences in initial levels and growth of conflict and closeness over time. Results indicated modest stability of teacher-perceived conflict and closeness through sixth grade, with relatively greater stability in perceptions of conflict. Levels of conflict at kindergarten were higher for children who were male, Black, had greater mean hours of childcare, had lower academic achievement scores, and had greater externalizing behavior. Children identified as Black and those with less sensitive mothers were at greater risk for increased conflict with teachers over time. Levels of teacher-reported closeness were lower when children were male, had lower quality home environments, and had lower academic achievement scores. The gap in closeness ratings between males and females increased in the middle elementary school years. Additional analyses were conduced to explore differences in teacher ratings of conflict between Black and White students.     

环境损害责任与全球环境法的兴起

全球环境法是在全球化的背景下随着环境法律移植和创新的深入发展而得以产生和演进的,其中,全球环境损害责任制度堪为缩影和写照。在国内法层面,为了克服污染受害者起诉污染者承担损害赔偿责任的制度性障碍,一些国家采取了放宽因果关系证明要求和转移举证责任等多种因应措施。然而,在国际层面,对于针对美国跨国公司在国外的环境侵权行为的诉讼,美国法院往往以不方便美国法院原则、适用《外国人侵权法》在美国起诉须以被告违反国际法为条件、非居民外国人不具备审慎起诉资格等为由而拒不受理,致使环境受害者在美国的诉讼阻力重重。作为应对,发展中国家采取了一系列举措。其中,最典型的立法对策是,规定一旦案件在国外起诉,国内法院便自动丧失管辖权;在原告所在国起诉的,允许以被告所在国的法律来计算污染损害赔偿额,等等。因而,一国对外国原告提起的环境诉讼的接受和承认外国判决之互惠条件准则的出台,将变得越来越重要。今后跨国环境私人诉讼将不断推动全球环境损害责任制度的发展,而不断革新的全球环境损害责任制度也将成为全球环境法新格局中的重要组成部分。     

Outsourcing to emerging markets: Theoretical perspectives and policy implications

Creating value through outsourcing has emerged as a popular competitive strategy for firms in various industries. In order to survive in the domestic and international marketplaces, firms, especially in developed countries, are seeking opportunities offshore, which is one focus of globalization. Offshore outsourcing has emerged as a popular competitive strategy and emerging markets have become increasingly attractive locations. As firms in developed countries (e.g., the US) continue to face enormous challenges to sustain competitive advantage, outsourcing to emerging markets is becoming an increasingly important source of business renewal and corporate transformation.In spite of the growing strategic significance of sourcing, we have limited knowledge of offshoring and outsourcing to emerging markets. The objectives of this review are fourfold: (1) to provide a better understanding of the concepts of offshoring and outsourcing business models, (2) to discuss relevant theoretical perspectives related to outsourcing, (3) to present a taxonomy of outsourcing strategies drawing on the extant literature, and (4) to discuss public policy implications. Conclusions and direction for future research are provided.