Recent European fertility patterns: Fitting curves to ‘distorted’ distributions

Recent patterns of fertility in Europe show marked differences between countries. Recent United Kingdom and Irish fertility curves show ‘distortions’ in terms of a ‘bulge’ in early age fertility, distinct from the smoother curves of other European countries. These patterns may not be adequately described by mathematical functions used by previous studies to model fertility curves. A mixture model with two component distributions may be more appropriate. The suitability of the simple and mixture Hadwiger functions is examined in relation to the fertility curves of a number of European countries. While the simple Hadwiger model fits recent period age-specific fertility distributions for some countries, others which display a ‘bulge’ in early age fertility require a mixture Hadwiger model. Some of the parameters of the Hadwiger models appear to be related to familiar demographic indices. The simple and mixture Hadwiger models appear useful in describing and comparing fertility patterns across European countries.     

Rapid Estimations of Maternal Mortality in Countries with Defective Data: An Application to Bamako (1974–85) and Other Developing Countries

Although Gray has argued that the index of social distance (ν) reflects ‘preference factors free of opportunity factors’, that it ‘controls the effects of size’, both its statistical derivation and performance under hypothetical extremes suggest that it is akin to a class of social-mobility-ratio statistics, which principally measure group size and only faintly reflect other factors. An alternative log-linear assimilation model is presented and tested. Multivariate methods neatly decompose the problem to take into account overall secular change, sexual imbalances, country-of-birth preferences or prejudices, as well as sex-specific patterns. Thus, in the Australian case, where Gray concluded that shifting nuptial country-of-birth preferences were primarily a function of changing opportunities, a log-linear analysis shows that, on the contrary, a dramatic rise in marital assimilation occurred in spite of only modest changes in opportunities.     

The trend of intelligence in certain districts of England

An estimate of the change in intelligence in ten English education authorities during the past 10 years has been made by comparing the scores of complete year groups of 11-year-old children in 1947 with scores made by similar groups in the same test on an earlier occasion. The first test was taken by 31,728 children and the second by 28,505 children, boys and girls in approximately equal numbers.

For boys and girls together there was a fall of 0.0034 point of intelligence quotient per year, which was far from significant. In seven districts where we had separate scores for boys and girls on both occasions there was a significant fall in intelligence quotient of 0.0921 point per year amongst boys and a significant rise of 0.0921 point per year amongst girls.

The adventitious influences which might invalidate a comparison of the two sets of scores have been considered; they probably tend to depress the score at the second test.

A study of sex differences in attainment tests at 11 years and in intelligence tests at 13 years and later suggests that the scores of the boys in 1947 are underestimates of their ability, and that a truer measure of the trend of intelligence amongst the population is represented by the change in the girls' scores.

By assuming a certain parallelism between the present survey and that of the Scottish children, the rise in intelligence quotient of the latter is estimated at 0.0543 point per year.

A significant increase in the dispersion of intelligence test score of both boys and girls during the past 10 years has been recorded.     

Effects of population policy and economic reform on the trend in fertility in Guangdong province,China, 1975–2005

An analysis of data mainly from China's 1990 and 2000 censuses and 2005 mini-census shows how fertility decline between 1975 and 2005 in the province of Guangdong has been influenced by both fertility policy and economic and social development. Guangdong's development since 1975 has been very rapid and has attracted huge numbers of migrants from other provinces. The analysis of the province's fertility trend from 1975 shows clearly the influence of fertility policy on the trend. The analysis also shows that economic development has brought about large changes in population composition by urban/rural residence, education, occupation, and migration status, which, together with large fertility differentials by these characteristics, have contributed substantially to Guangdong's fertility decline, in large part through changes in proportions currently married.     

The impact of mortality development on the number of centenarians in England and wales

The world is ageing both at an individual and a population level, and population ageing is truly a global phenomenon. Life expectancies at birth have increased at the global level from 47 years in the mid-20th century to around 70 years today, and are expected to rise to 76 years by the mid-21st century. The proportion of the world’s population aged 60 years and over has increased from 8 % in the mid-20th century to 12 %, and by 2050 it is expected to reach 21 %. The emergence of large numbers of centenarians has accompanied this development. This paper outlines this emergence historically and the likely growth in the number of centenarians in the 21st century, in particular in England and Wales, analysing mortality trends since 1840 and the rise in the number of centenarians in the 20th and 21st centuries. The number of centenarians in England and Wales increased from around 160 in 1922 to almost 12,500 by 2012, but if mortality at all ages had remained constant from 1912 to 2012, then by 2012 the number of centenarians would only have been around 720. By 2100, the number of centenarians is expected to reach around 1.4 million, but if future mortality at all ages were to remain constant, then by 2100 the number of centenarians would be around 78,000. However, if predicted mortality for those aged 55 years and over was to decrease by an additional 5 % every 5 years until 2100, then the number of centenarians in England and Wales would reach around 1.8 million by the end of the century.     

The Second Approximation to an International Standard for Life Satisfaction

An earlier study, based on data from Western countries, concluded that an international standard for life satisfaction could be stated as 75 ± 2.5 percentage of the measurement scale maximum score. This study presents a similar analysis based on data from countries representing all major geographic regions. It is reported that these data yield a more inclusive standard of 70 ± 5 percentage of scale maximum. While the major correlates of life satisfaction are found to be individualism and national wealth, the life satisfaction levels of some countries are distinctly anomalous in this regard. It is concluded that the narrow range of population data suggest that life satisfaction is held under homeostatic control. The anomalous levels of life satisfaction reported by some countries indicate caution in the interpretation of life satisfaction data as implying some desirable population state.     

Tribal affiliation and fertility: A note

This not extends T. L. F. Devis's recent investigation of the relationship between tribal affiliation and fertility in Sierra Leone. Controls are introduced for age structure and economic variables. The findings suggest that tribal affiliation does not have much independent influence on fertility after these factors are allowed for.