Taste uncertainty and status quo effects in consumer choice

We use reference-dependent expected utility theory to develop a model of status quo effects in consumer choice. We hypothesise that, when making their decisions, individuals are uncertain about the utility that will be yielded by their consumption experiences in different ‘taste states’ of the world. If individuals have asymmetric attitudes to gains and losses of utility, the model entails acyclic reference-dependent preferences over consumption bundles. The model explains why status quo effects may vary substantially from one decision context to another and why some such effects may decay as individuals gain market experience.     

Provision of a Wildfire Risk Map: Informing Residents in the Wildland Urban Interface

Wildfires in the wildland urban interface (WUI) are an increasing concern throughout the western United States and elsewhere. WUI communities continue to grow and thus increase the wildfire risk to human lives and property. Information such as a wildfire risk map can inform WUI residents of potential risks and may help to efficiently sort mitigation efforts. This study uses the survey-based contingent valuation (CV) method to examine annual household willingness to pay (WTP) for the provision of a wildfire risk map. Data were collected through a mail survey of the East Mountain WUI area in the State of New Mexico (USA). The integrated empirical approach includes a system of equations that involves joint estimation of WTP values, along with measures of a respondent's risk perception and risk mitigation behavior. The median estimated WTP is around U.S. $12 for the annual wildfire risk map, which covers at least the costs of producing and distributing available risk information. Further, providing a wildfire risk map can help address policy goals emphasizing information gathering and sharing among stakeholders to mitigate the effects of wildfires.     

A Time‐Dependent Risk Assessment for Broken Compact Fluorescent Lamps

Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) ambient air quality guidelines are meant to limit long‐term exposures of toxins to safe levels. Unfortunately, there is little guidance for what constitutes a safe level from a one‐time (or very infrequent) short exposure(s). In the case of mercury, a review of the derivation of the EPA ambient air quality standard shows that it implicitly assumes a tissue burden model. The time dependence of the tissue burden is commonly described in terms of a half‐life, a modeling assumption that presumes that the decline in the tissue burden after a single exposure can be approximately described as an exponential decay. In this article, we use a simple exponential tissue burden model to derive a time‐dependent no observable adverse effect level (NOAEL) for mercury concentrations in air. The model predicts that tissue body burden will asymptotically approach the EPA air quality level for long exposure times, and reach workplace standard levels for exposures of a few hours. The model was used along with data on mercury levels from experimental work done by the Maine Department of Environmental Protection to evaluate the risks from a broken compact fluorescent lamp in a residential setting. Mercury levels approached the NOAEL only when the debris was left in an almost sealed room. Normal common‐sense cleaning measures: removal of debris to an outside area, and ventilation of the room for several minutes, reduced exposures to less than 1% of the NOAEL.     

儿童福利机构中的类家庭养育

创设类家庭养育模式 类家庭养育与传统机构养育的不同 类家庭养育模式在很多方面的优势对幼童的健康成长是至关重要的。从结构角度来看，家庭由相对较小的团体构成，尤其是相对少的儿童。如果孩子不止一个，那么不同年龄、性别、或者有特殊需要的儿童都住在一起。     

The Migration of Westerners to Thailand: An Unusual Flow From Developed to Developing World

Thousands of Westerners migrate to Thailand; some go to expatriate jobs and some are self‐funded retirees but many are former tourists who live precariously for years on small local salaries with insecure visa status. The present study examined demographics, reasons for migration, well‐being, perceived assimilation and experiences of Westerners living in or who had lived in Thailand for at least one year. Westerners were studied in‐country and 1003 current and former migrants completed an online survey. Common migration motives were a preference for Thai lifestyle and culture, low living costs, a warm climate, and readily‐available, attractive sexual partners. Most Westerners in‐country reported feeling well‐assimilated; half had Thai partners, and most planned to stay for life. Their major reported problems were the difficult Thai language, visa policies, and official corruption. Common reasons for leaving Thailand were financial or disillusionment, occasioned in some cases by perceived poor assimilation. The move apparently works out well for many but assimilation often may be illusory and there are signs of a local backlash against the influx of Westerners.     

Disagreement in Australian partners’ reports of financial difficulty

We use unique data in which both partners report about household finances to demonstrate that there is often disagreement about whether the household has experienced financial difficulty in the past year. Four alternative explanations for this disagreement are tested using the data. The results indicate that disagreement may be related to the severity of the underlying material hardship rather than to gender differences or individual (as opposed to household) views of financial difficulty. We find limited evidence that for some couples information asymmetries contribute to explaining disagreement about financial difficulty. This implies that standard surveys which collect information about the household’s financial position from a representative individual may fail to completely characterize the nature of material hardship.      

Why do people believe weird things?

From claims that NASA faked the moon landings to creationist rejections of evolution, many people hold views that fl y in the face of evidence. By refusing to be swayed by hard facts, such people are clearly irrational—or are they? Robert Matthews argues that the frustration of scientists over the persistence of "irrational" beliefs highlights their own misconceptions about the process of inference.     

Simple linear regression with multiple level shifts

The authors study the properties of the ordinary least squares trend estimator in a simple linear regression model with multiple known level shift times. The error component in the model is taken to be a general short‐memory stationary time series. The authors establish the consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimator. They also present a climatological application in which the multiple level shifts are prominent features.     

The "Papy-boom": A historical opportunity for French public hospitals

Abstract   The French public hospital system represents a major element in overall social security expenditure and ongoing reforms are having a significant impact on its financial equilibrium and the internal management of its activities. Nonetheless, the system has been unable to achieve the productivity objectives imposed on it. Significantly, staffing costs account for three quarters of its expenditure, yet most employees are civil servants who cannot be laid off easily. The only possibility for meaningful change in the size of its workforce may lie in the demographic revolution now affecting the French population, which will see half the present staff of public hospitals reaching retirement age within the next decade.