Testing time series for interpolability and whiteness

We propose a test to decide if a time series is represented by its linear interpolator better than by its mean value. The same test can be employed to decide if a time series has to be considered white noise. The test is based on a new estimate of the index of linear determinism (Battaglia, 1983, Inverse autocovariances and a measure of linear determinism for a stationary process, J. Time Series Anal. 4, 79-87) and its asymptotic distribution is derived. Comparison with the popular Ljung-Box portmanteau test has been performed based on both asymptotic power and a simulation experiment. The new test     

A dwindling middle class? Italian evidence in the 2000s

In recent years, increasing attention has been paid to household impoverishment in Italy. Most of previous analyses dealing with this issue are based on summary statistics, which may not capture the whole income distribution. This paper employs a non-parametric tool, the “relative distribution”, to describe patterns of changes in the entire Italian household income distribution over the period 2000–2004. This approach also allows for a decomposition of the relative density to isolate changes due to differences in location from changes due to differences in shape, thus enabling deeper analysis of income polarization. During the 2000s there was a significant location effect, and also increased income polarization, which has particularly affected incomes below the median. Analyses by social groups, according to the employment status of the household head, show significant re-distribution effects within groups.     

Interacting multiple try algorithms with different proposal distributions

We introduce a new class of interacting Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms which is designed to increase the efficiency of a modified multiple-try Metropolis (MTM) sampler. The extension with respect to the existing MCMC literature is twofold. First, the sampler proposed extends the basic MTM algorithm by allowing for different proposal distributions in the multiple-try generation step. Second, we exploit the different proposal distributions to naturally introduce an interacting MTM mechanism (IMTM) that expands the class of population Monte Carlo methods and builds connections with the rapidly expanding world of adaptive MCMC. We show the validity of the algorithm and discuss the choice of the selection weights and of the different proposals. The numerical studies show that the interaction mechanism allows the IMTM to efficiently explore the state space leading to higher efficiency than other competing algorithms.     

Adult Attachment,Love Styles,Relationship Experiences and Subjective Well-Being: Cross-Cultural and Gender Comparison between Americans,Portuguese, and Mozambicans

Attachment security, love styles, and romantic relationship experiences are closely associated with subjective well-being (SWB). A few studies have empirically observed significant relations between these variables. However, no studies have included all of these predictors to analyze the unique contribution of each to SWB, and no cross-cultural studies have analyzed these variables simultaneously. This article examined (a) the relations between attachment security, love styles, romantic relationship experiences and subjective well-being, (b) the unique contribution of each to predict SWB, and (c) cross-cultural and gender differences in the predictors of SWB across three samples of 1,574 university students: 497 from North Carolina (US), 544 from Maputo (Mozambique), and 533 from Lisbon (Portugal). We found cross-cultural differences in the three samples. The main predictor of SWB was attachment security in the US and Portuguese samples, while in the Mozambican it was eros love style. Storge love style positively predicted SWB in the US and Portuguese samples, but not in the Mozambican. In contrast, mania love style predicted the SWB of Mozambicans but not that of Americans or Portuguese. We found gender similarities and differences: the association between attachment security and SWB was not gender-specific; the associations between love styles, relationship experiences and SWB were gender-specific.     

Is Football an Indicator of Development at the International Level?

The aim of this paper is to examine whether football can be considered an indicator of development at the international level. An empirical econometric model is designed in order to analyse development in terms of GDP per capita as well as in terms of the Human Development Index. Cross-sectional and time-series information are used. The results suggest that FIFA rankings of national teams can be used to complement our understanding of multidimensional development, in particular, in those countries where the availability of information is not as good as researchers would like.     

Physically active undergraduates: Motivational and emotional profiles

Abstract

Objectives: The aim was to determine the motivational profiles – including variables from the theory of self-determination and emotional intelligence – of active undergraduates, and to examine their relationship with physical activity. Participants: Six hundred and fifteen undergraduates participated in the study. Methods: Trait Meta-Mood Scale, Basic Psychological Needs in Exercise Scale, Behavioral Regulation in Exercise Questionnaire and Habitual Physical Activity Questionnaire were administered. Cluster analysis was used to identify the motivational profiles. Results: Two motivational profiles were found. One of the motivational profiles included the participants with high levels of satisfaction of the basic psychological needs and self-determined motivation; moderately high levels of emotional clarity and repair; and low levels of non-self-determined motivation. Further, this group showed the highest rates of physical practice than its counterpart. Conclusions: The combination of self-determination theory and emotional intelligence should be considered when examining adherence to physical activity.     

Fertility Decline in Former “Asian Tigers”

The fertility opportunity hypothesis suggests that individuals and couples adjust family size in response to their perception that economic opportunity is increasing (or diminishing.) A sense that opportunities are expanding encourages a relatively high, even rising, family size target. On the contrary, the perception that opportunities and resources will fall short of satisfying the aspirations of oneself or family lead to lowering family size targets. The literature suggests that family size target translates into completed family size on the order of 85 to 90 percent. The economic collapse of former Asian tigers in late summer, 1997, offered a chance to test the hypothesis prospectively. In, 1998, an author (Abernethy) predicted that fertility rates in the nine Asian tiger economies would fall during the 1997-1999 interval at a faster rate than had been observed in immediately preceding two-year intervals. This paper reports the results of tests of the hypothesis with respect to the Asian tigers and several other country clusters for which no particular prediction was made. Preliminary findings appear to support the fertility opportunity hypothesis.     

Older women, their children, and grandchildren: a feminist perspective on family relationships

Using gerontological and feminist frameworks, we explored the relationships older women have with their children and grandchildren. In-depth, qualitative interviews were conducted with 34 women, ranging in age from 55 to 88. From our analyses of the women's perceptions of their family relationships, two themes were prevalent: the centrality of children and the peripherality of grandchildren in their everyday lives. The women had varying degrees of involvement with their children and grandchildren, and these relationships contributed to their sense of self and family. Their relationships were not stagnant, but were continually reshaped as both the women and their family members proceeded through the life course.