A machine learning analysis of drought and rural population change on the North American Great Plains since the 1970s

Population and Environment - Machine learning techniques have to date not been widely used in population-environment research, but represent a promising tool for identifying relationships between...     

R2 Bounds for Predictive Models: What Univariate Properties Tell us About Multivariate Predictability

ABSTRACT

A long-standing puzzle in macroeconomic forecasting has been that a wide variety of multivariate models have struggled to out-predict univariate models consistently. We seek an explanation for this puzzle in terms of population properties. We derive bounds for the predictive R² of the true, but unknown, multivariate model from univariate ARMA parameters alone. These bounds can be quite tight, implying little forecasting gain even if we knew the true multivariate model. We illustrate using CPI inflation data. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

The Role of Students

This article describes the experience of one school's change in curriculum direction with emphasis on the issues and concerns regarding parallel changes in the field instruction program. The process observed by the Task Force on the Practicum at Fordham in maximizing involvements of and communication with the cooperating agencies is outlined as is t he program projected for engaging the field instructors in considering the implications for them of a generic field instruction course for first year students. The article also contains the paradigm developed by the Task Force to sample the nature of the field assignments and the analysis of the findings from the data.     

Effect of a workplace design and training intervention on individual performance, group effectiveness and collaboration: the role of environmental control

The effects of a workplace design and training intervention and the relationships between perceived satisfaction of office workplace design factors (layout and storage) and work performance measures (individual performance, group collaboration and effectiveness) were studied with 120 office workers using the Workplace Environment Questionnaire. Further, we examined whether environmental control had a direct effect on work performance, and then explored whether environmental control mediated or moderated the relationship between workplace design factors and work performance. Results showed a significant, positive impact of the intervention on environmental satisfaction for workstation layout. Satisfaction with workstation layout had a significant relationship with individual performance, group collaboration and effectiveness; and satisfaction with workstation storage had a significant relationship with individual performance and group collaboration. Environmental control had a direct impact on individual performance and group collaboration; whereas, the mediating and moderating effects of environmental control on the relationship between workplace design factors and outcome variables were not significant.     

Estimation of river and stream temperature trends under haphazard sampling

Long-term temporal trends in water temperature in rivers and streams are typically estimated under the assumption of evenly-spaced space-time measurements. However, sampling times and dates associated with historical water temperature datasets and some sampling designs may be haphazard. As a result, trends in temperature may be confounded with trends in time or space of sampling which, in turn, may yield biased trend estimators and thus unreliable conclusions. We address this concern using multilevel (hierarchical) linear models, where time effects are allowed to vary randomly by day and date effects by year. We evaluate the proposed approach by Monte Carlo simulations with imbalance, sparse data and confounding by trend in time and date of sampling. Simulation results indicate unbiased trend estimators while results from a case study of temperature data from the Illinois River, USA conform to river thermal assumptions. We also propose a new nonparametric bootstrap inference on multilevel models that allows for a relatively flexible and distribution-free quantification of uncertainties. The proposed multilevel modeling approach may be elaborated to accommodate nonlinearities within days and years when sampling times or dates typically span temperature extremes.     

Understanding Management Performance

Current models of the factors underlying management performance make use of a variety of variables at different levels of analysis. A framework is presented in which variables of three different types are linked together. Using data from a sample (n = 437) of British managers this article explores relationships between personality factors (using the big-five factors), work competencies and managerial performance. Results from the analyses reveal a set of underlying competency factors, which show different patterns of correlation with two facets of performance: current proficiency and promotability. In turn, these factors and the facets of performance show relationships with the big-five personality factors. Current proficiency is more closely related to competencies of organization, specialization and analysis – competencies more likely to be displayed by people who are conscientious and introverted. Promotability is linked more closely to competencies concerning action/motivation, flexibility/sensitivity and communication – competencies more likely to be displayed by people who are extroverted with lower conscientiousness and agreeableness.     

The Marital Attitudes Scale: Assessing and Treating Ambivalent Clients

This article explores the complexities of the couple relationship commonly observed in the clinical settings of couple therapists. Whether described as the “push–pull” of the couple dyad, the mixed agenda couple, the couple that is leaning out versus leaning in, or the ambivalent couple, the literature suggests that this dynamic is to be assessed and explored before fully engaging in relational therapy or pursuing separation or divorce. The Marital Attitudes Scale is a 48-item self-report inventory that was normed with a clinical and nonclinical population at 2 clinical training sites. The inventory adheres to a cognitive-behavioral theoretical orientation with 4 subscales and a total score that measure cognitions, emotions, behaviors, schemas, and total scores relative to the ambivalence or the absence of commitment in the couple relationship. The instrument uses the frame of preambivalent, or committed to the relationship; ambivalent, ambivalently committed to the relationship; or postambivalent, no longer committed to the couple relationship. The inventory has evidenced good validity and reliability and is considered to be a useful inventory for assessing the degree of commitment to the relationship when a couple engages in therapy. This article explores the development of the inventory, its cognitive-behavioral theoretical orientation, the literature around the theme of marital dissolution, the concept of relational ambivalence, and the interface between assessment and therapeutic engagement.