Overconfidence in absolute and relative performance: The regression hypothesis and Bayesian updating

Studies have found that people are overconfident in estimation involving difficult tasks but underconfident in easy tasks. Conversely, they are overconfident in placing themselves in easy tasks but underconfident in hard tasks. These findings can be explained by a regression hypothesis that implies random errors in estimation as well as by rational Bayesian updating (that implies no random error). We test these hypotheses in five experiments. We find overconfidence in estimation involving hard tasks but underconfidence in easy tasks. However, for placement (involving both easy and hard tasks) we find no overconfidence, regression effects due to low and high anchor points, and extreme underconfidence when people choose between multiple alternatives. On the other hand, when given precise information about absolute performance, people’s re-assessments of relative performance are consistent with the Bayesian model. Since placement judgments are important in many competitive settings, our results emphasize the need for more research to identify their determinants.     

Reducing Palilalia by Presenting Tact Corrections to Young Children with Autism

Palilalia, the delayed repetition of words or phrases, occurs frequently among individuals with autism and developmental disabilities. The current study used a combined multiple baseline and reversal design to investigate the effectiveness of presenting tacts as corrections for palilalia. During baseline, five preschoolers with autism emitted high rates of palilalia and low rates of mands and tacts during play and instructional activities. During treatment, when experimenters presented opportunities to echoically tact actions and objects following the emission of palilalia, its frequency decreased to low and stable levels and mands and tacts increased. Functional relationships between the tact corrections and emissions of palilalia, mands, and tacts were established during reversals to baseline and treatment conditions. Similar trends in responding were found for frequency of palilalia, mands, and tacts in non-treatment settings.     

Total System Performance Assessment for Waste Disposal Using a Logic Tree Approach

The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) has sponsored the development of a model to assess the long-term, overall performance of the candidate spent fuel and high-level radioactive waste (HLW) disposal facility at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The model simulates the processes that lead to HLW container corrosion, HLW mobilization from the spent fuel, and transport by groundwater, and contaminated groundwater usage by future hypothetical individuals leading to radiation doses to those individuals. The model must incorporate a multitude of complex, coupled processes across a variety of technical disciplines. Furthermore, because of the very long time frames involved in the modeling effort (10⁴ years), the relative lack of directly applicable data, and many uncertainties and variabilities in those data, a probabilistic approach to model development was necessary. The developers of the model chose a logic tree approach to represent uncertainties in both conceptual models and model parameter values. The developers felt the logic tree approach was the most appropriate. This paper discusses the value and use of logic trees applied to assessing the uncertainties in HLW disposal, the components of the model, and a few of the results of that model. The paper concludes with a comparison of logic trees and Monte Carlo approaches.     

Risk Assessment Based on Financial Data: Market Response to Airline Accidents

The risk of catastrophic failures, for example in the aviation and aerospace industries, can be approached from different angles (e.g., statistics when they exist, or a detailed probabilistic analysis of the system). Each new accident carries information that has already been included in the experience base or constitutes new evidence that can be used to update a previous assessment of the risk. In this paper, we take a different approach and consider the risk and the updating from the investor's point of view. Based on the market response to past airplane accidents, we examine which ones have created a surprise response and which ones are considered part of the risk of the airline business as previously assessed. To do so, we quantify the magnitude and the timing of the observed market response to catastrophic accidents, and we compare it to an estimate of the response that would be expected based on the true actual cost of the accident including direct and indirect costs (full-cost information response). First, we develop a method based on stock market data to measure the actual market response to an accident and we construct an estimate of the full-cost information response to such an event. We then compare the two figures for the immediate and the long-term response of the market for the affected firm, as well as for the whole industry group to which the firm belongs. As an illustration, we analyze a sample of ten fatal accidents experienced by major US domestic airlines during the last seven years. In four cases, we observed an abnormal market response. In these instances, it seems that the shareholders may have updated their estimates of the probability of a future accident in the affected airlines or more generally of the firm's future business prospects. This market reaction is not always easy to explain much less to anticipate, a fact which management should bear in mind when planning a firm's response to such an event.     

A Critical Review of Research in Marketing

An historical review of research in three major sub-fields within marketing: market structure and segmentation, market networks and interfirm relationships, and market orientation and the implementation of the marketing concept, suggests that there remain a number of key issues in terms of significance and interpretation. It is noteworthy that these issues, which have important strategic and managerial implications have not, in general, been reflected in the content of key marketing textbooks. A number of more general issues can be derived which are relevant not only to future research in the marketing arena but also the wider context of strategy research.     

Team resilience: A scoping review of conceptual and empirical work

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this scoping review was to examine the literature on team resilience to gain insight into current thinking regarding its definition and conceptualisation, and to identify how researchers have operationalised and measured this concept. We conducted a systematic scoping review using the 5-phase approach proposed by Arksey and O’Malley. A total of seven databases were searched, followed by a citation search of eligible papers via Google Scholar. Of the 275 articles identified via the search process, 27 papers were deemed eligible for review. Several key findings regarding the literature on team resilience were observed: (i) definitions varied in terms of content (e.g. input or process), breadth (e.g. unidimensional versus multidimensional), and quality (e.g. essential and necessary attributes of key components); (ii) there was a predominance of single-level conceptualisations of team resilience; and (iii) there has been a reliance on cross-sectional research designs in empirical studies, which is incongruent with the dynamic nature of this concept. Key recommendations from this scoping review focus on definitional, theoretical, and methodological issues.     

Finding Known Journal Articles: Comparing a Citation Linker to an A-to-Z List

OpenURL links provide access to full-text articles from citation databases; however, end users who have found citations outside of library databases must find the full text of their journal articles another way. Many OpenURL link resolvers offer a citation finder service which allows the end user to search for specific known items at the article level. This paper studies the usability of the “citation linker” search from Ex Libris' SFX®. Twenty-one volunteers tested finding known journal articles using both a standard A-to-Z list and SFX' citation linker search. The researchers compare results from the two search interfaces, document the problems found, recommend which interface makes the best default search interface, and suggest improvements to the citation linker interface.     

Same-Sex Married Tax Filers After <Emphasis Type="Italic">Windsor</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Obergefell</Emphasis>

This article provides new estimates of the number and characteristics of same-sex married couples after U.S. Supreme Court rulings in 2013 and 2015 established rights to same-sex marriage. The U.S. Department of the Treasury and the Internal Revenue Service subsequently ruled that same-sex spouses would be treated as married for federal tax purposes. Because almost all married taxpayers file joint tax returns, administrative tax records provide new information on the demographic characteristics of married same-sex couples. This study provides estimates of the population of same-sex tax filers drawn from returns filed in 2013, 2014, and 2015, using methods developed by the U.S. Census Bureau to address measurement error in gender classification. We estimate that approximately 0.48 % of all joint filers in 2015 were same-sex couples, or approximately 250,450 couples.     

A Dyadic Analysis of Attachment Insecurities and Romantic Disengagement among Couples Seeking Relationship Therapy

This study sought to assess the role of attachment insecurities on romantic disengagement among couples seeking relationship therapy. Dyadic associations were examined between attachment insecurities and romantic disengagement, accounting for depression, relationship satisfaction, and commitment, using a sample of 171 couples. Partners completed the Experiences in Close Relationships Scale and the Romantic Disengagement Scale. Path analysis revealed that attachment-related avoidance, but not anxiety, was associated with romantic disengagement. Men's attachment-related anxiety was related to greater disengagement in their partner. The combination of men's attachment-related avoidance and women's attachment-related anxiety was also significantly associated with women's romantic disengagement. Although attachment insecurities were associated with romantic disengagement, contextual and intrapersonal factors also contributed to our understanding of disengagement. Findings are discussed in light of clinical interventions for couple therapy.     

Relationship Separation and Help-seeking: Reporting on an Agency Study

Relationship separation affects many Australians with around 20,000 divorces involving children formalised per year. For profit, government and nongovernment organisations all offer services for separated couples and families. Despite promotion of specialist services such as mediation and child-centred services, which seek to assist families to navigate what is a complex interaction between public and legislative structures, there is little known about the potentially broader array of supports and information people use following separation. Better understanding of help-seeking behaviours for separating couples enables more effective targeted policy and service delivery. Individuals with children accessing a nongovernment-funded program for support during separation (n?=?134) were asked to complete a survey that was designed to track their help-seeking behaviour. We found that help-seeking for legal services was more common than seeking help for self-care, but that both were important for many people in the sample. Friendship networks, and medical and health professionals were the most common sources of information and support. We argue that social work has a role in promoting and supporting parents who are separating to access a broader range of informal support networks and professional services.