Refined Inference on Long Memory in Realized Volatility

There is an emerging consensus in empirical finance that realized volatility series typically display long range dependence with a memory parameter (d) around 0.4 (Andersen et al., 2001; Martens et al., 2004). The present article provides some illustrative analysis of how long memory may arise from the accumulative process underlying realized volatility. The article also uses results in Lieberman and Phillips (2004, 2005) to refine statistical inference about d by higher order theory. Standard asymptotic theory has an O(n^-1/2) error rate for error rejection probabilities, and the theory used here refines the approximation to an error rate of o(n^-1/2). The new formula is independent of unknown parameters, is simple to calculate and user-friendly. The method is applied to test whether the reported long memory parameter estimates of Andersen et al. (2001) and Martens et al. (2004) differ significantly from the lower boundary (d = 0.5) of nonstationary long memory, and generally confirms earlier findings.     

Improving early phase oncology clinical trial design: The case for finding the optimal biological dose

Historically early phase oncology drug development programmes have been based on the belief that “more is better”. Furthermore, rule-based study designs such as the “3 + 3” design are still often used to identify the MTD. Phillips and Clark argue that newer Bayesian model-assisted designs such as the BOIN design should become the go to designs for statisticians for MTD finding. This short communication goes one stage further and argues that Bayesian model-assisted designs such as the BOIN12 which balances risk-benefit should be included as one of the go to designs for early phase oncology trials, depending on the study objectives. Identifying the optimal biological dose for future research for many modern targeted drugs, immunotherapies, cell therapies and vaccine therapies can save significant time and resources.     

Beyond New Zealand's Dual Health Reforms

The New Zealand health system was substantially reformed in 1993 with the introduction of a purchaser–provider split, competitive contracting and managerialism. The new system failed to deliver the desired gains and, in 1996, the reforms were reformed. While there has been widespread study of the 1993 reforms, there has been little discussion to date of the 1996 changes and the emerging directions for New Zealand health policy and service delivery, which remain unclear. This paper discusses the New Zealand health reforms of the 1990s. It briefly outlines the 1993 reforms and their results. Next, it details the 1996 reforms. Third, it discusses developments since 1996, some of which have emerged out of the 1993 reforms, but which have gathered momentum only since the 1996 changes were announced. In the conclusion, the paper lists some of the directions in which the New Zealand health sector appears to be heading, noting that there is a need for coordination of the sector, and for permanence.     

Reviews

R. H. Hilton, The English Peasantry in the Later Middle Ages (1975), 256 (Clarendon Press, Oxford, £6.50).

Colin Platt, The English Medieval Town (1976), 219 (Seeker and Warburg, £6.00).

James Axtell, The School Upon A Hill. Education and Society In Colonial New England (1974), xxi+298 (Yale University Press, New Haven, £7.50).

Kenneth A. Lockridge, Literacy in Colonial New England. An Enquiry Into The Social Context of Literacy in the Early Modern West (1974), 164 (W. W. Norton and Co., New‐York, $6.95).

Jean‐Claude Perrot, Genèse d'une ville moderns. Caen au XVIII'siècle (1975), 2 vols, 1157 (Mouton: Paris, the Hague, 250 fr.).

Douglas Hay, Peter Linebaugh and E. P. Thompson (eds.), Albion's Fatal Tree (1975), 344+15 illustrations (Allen Lane, £7.50).

E. P. Thompson, Whigs and Hunters (1975), 300+17 illustrations (Allen Lane, £6.50).

Arthur E. Imhof (ed.), Historische Demographie als Sozialgeschichte. Giessen und Umgebung (1975), 2 vols, 626+495 (Historische Kommission für Hessen, Darmstadt und Marburg, DM 48).

Historical Demography as Social History. Giessen and Surrounding District.¹

Alan Forrest, Society and Politics in Revolutionary Bordeaux (1975), xi+300 (Oxford University Press, £8.00).

Richard Hunter and Ida Macalpine, Psychiatry for the Poor (1974), 264 (Dawsons of Pall Mall, £4.50, paperback £1.50).

Vieda Skultans, Madness and Morals. Ideas on Insanity in the Nineteenth Century (197 5), xv+260 (Routledge and Kegan Paul, £5.50).

Thomas S. Szasz, The Age of Madness, The History of Involuntary Mental Hospitalization Presented in Selected Texts (1973), xxi+372 (Routledge and Kegan Paul, £5.95).

Harald Runblom and Hans Norman (eds.), From Sweden to America: a History of the Migration (1976), 391 (University of Minnesota Press, Minneapolis, and University of Uppsala).

Charlotte Erickson (ed.), Emigration from Europe 1815–1914: Select Documents (1976), 320 (A. and C. Black, £6.50).

T. J. Nossiter, Influence, Opinion and Political Idioms in Reformed England: Case Studies from the North‐East, 1832–1874 (1975), xii+255 (Harvester, £7.50).

Robert J. Bezucha, The Lyon Uprising of 1834: Social and Political Conflict in the Early July Monarchy (1974), xviii+271 (Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, £6.25).

Lawrence Schofer, The Formation of a Modern Labour Force. Upper Silesia, 1865–1914 (1975), xvi+213 (University of California Press, Berkeley, Los Angeles and London, £7.80).

Léon Poliakov, The History of Anti‐Semitism. Volume III. From Voltaire to Wagner (1975), x+582 (Routledge and Kegan Paul, no price given).

Reinhard Rürup, Emanzipation und Antisemitismus. Studien zur ‘Judenfrage’ der bürgerlichen Gesellschaft (1975), 208 (Vandenhoeck and Rupprecht, Göttingen, paperback DM 28).

Uriel Tal, Christians and Jews in Germany. Religion, Politics and Ideology in the Second Reich, 1870–1914 (1975), 359 (Cornell University Press, Ithaca and London, £10.70).

Richard S. Levy, The Downfall of the Anti‐Semitic Political Parties in Imperial Germany (1975), 335 (Yale University Press, New Haven and London, no price given).

Andrew G. Whiteside, The Socialism of Fools. Georg Ritter von Schönerer and Austrian Pan‐Germanism (1975), x+404 (University of California Press, Berkeley, Los Angeles and London, £15.75).

Paul Thompson, The Edwardians: the remaking of British society (1975), xi+382 (Weidenfeld and Nicolson, £10.00).

Marc Fried, The World of the Urban Working Class (1975), x+410 (Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, £6.50).

Philip Gabriel Eidelberg, The Great Rumanian Peasant Revolt of 1907 (1974), xii+260 (E. J. Brill, Leiden, 64 guilders).

Peter H. Mcrkl, Political Violence under the Swastika: 581 Early Nazis (1975), xiv+735 (Princeton University Press, Princeton, $17.50, paper $6.30).     

Data availability in accounting research: Some evidence

The data availability policy of the American Accounting Association is examined to address two research questions: (1) Are data dependent results in The Accounting Review readily available for further inquiry and dissemination of accounting knowledge? (2) What are the potential factors that may account for the availability or the lack of data? Several potential factors including job rank, number of revisions before acceptance, source of data, and funding source are suggested to account for the lack of data availability. The results indicate that, in general, authors are not willing to make their data available to others. We conclude by suggesting some options that may ameliorate the situation.     

Assessing outcomes in an English authority (The Royal Borough of Kensington and Chelsea)

The local authority has used the Looking After Children materials to develop needs-led and outcome-oriented services at both individual and strategic planning levels. A specific study used data from the Assessment and Action Records to identify priority needs and desired outcomes for young people leaving care.     

The Role of Social Goals in Bullies' and Victims' Social Information Processing in Response to Ambiguous and Overtly Hostile Provocation

Understanding what social goals are associated with bullying and victimization behaviours, even after allowing for biases in interpretation of and affective responses to social events, is critical for understanding the socio‐behavioural profile of bullies and victims. In the present study, 181 nine‐ to ten‐year‐olds' affective responses, attribution of intent, and social goals were assessed in the context of a series of ambiguous and overtly hostile provocation vignettes. Results showed that even after allowing for other social information processing biases, social goals were meaningfully associated with bullying and victimization scores. Bullying was inversely associated with relationship‐building goals, and positively associated with goals to be assertive over the provocateur when provocation was overtly hostile. Being victimized was associated with having submissive goals even when provocation was ambiguous and after accounting for attribution of hostile intent. Findings are discussed in light of theoretical and practical implications.