Commentary on “Measuring Constructed Preferences: Towards a Building Code” by Payne,Bettman and Schkade

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty -     

Analysis of longitudinal data with drop-out: objectives, assumptions and a proposal

Summary. The problem of analysing longitudinal data that are complicated by possibly informative drop-out has received considerable attention in the statistical literature. Most researchers have concentrated on either methodology or application, but we begin this paper by arguing that more attention could be given to study objectives and to the relevant targets for inference. Next we summarize a variety of approaches that have been suggested for dealing with drop-out. A long-standing concern in this subject area is that all methods require untestable assumptions. We discuss circumstances in which we are willing to make such assumptions and we propose a new and computationally efficient modelling and analysis procedure for these situations. We assume a dynamic linear model for the expected increments of a constructed variable, under which subject-specific random effects follow a martingale process in the absence of drop-out. Informal diagnostic procedures to assess the tenability of the assumption are proposed. The paper is completed by simulations and a comparison of our method and several alternatives in the analysis of data from a trial into the treatment of schizophrenia, in which approximately 50% of recruited subjects dropped out before the final scheduled measurement time.     

Respect: A philosophical perspective

This article explicates the concept of respect as philosophers discuss and utilize it. After identifying the main questions about respect which philosophers have raised and addressed, including questions about the nature, importance, objects, grounds, psychological and behavioral elements, and implications of respect, I sketch an account of the most general elements of the attitude of respect and identify different kinds of respect and their connections to and differences from similar attitudes such as esteem and honor. I then discuss the most influential account of respect for persons, that of Immanuel Kant. The final section explores the importance of respect in moral, social and political life and in moral, social, and political theory, and highlights some implications for issues in applied ethics and social and political theory.     

Youth in foster care: developmental assets and attitudes towards adoption and mentoring

The present study explores the relationship between the characteristics of youth in foster care and youth attitudes about mentoring and adoption. Using a positive youth development framework, the study examines the relationship between youth risk and resilience variables (youth risk scores, youth assets and youth perception of control) and youth attitudes about mentoring and adoption. Data were collected from 54 youth, ages 10 to 17 years, through intake interviews and surveys. Participants were 25 male and 29 female adolescents; 33 were Caucasian and 21 were African American. Overall, the youth had positive attitudes about both mentoring and adoption, with Caucasian youth having more positive attitudes than African American youth. A 2 × 2 (Gender × Race) analysis of variance revealed greater feelings of control for male and Caucasian youth. Hierarchical regression analyses revealed that the youths' perceptions of their strengths and assets were related to how positively they viewed mentoring and adoption.     

A Collaborative Approach to Infant Research: Promoting Reproducibility,Best Practices,and Theory‐Building

The ideal of scientific progress is that we accumulate measurements and integrate these into theory, but recent discussion of replicability issues has cast doubt on whether psychological research conforms to this model. Developmental research—especially with infant participants—also has discipline‐specific replicability challenges, including small samples and limited measurement methods. Inspired by collaborative replication efforts in cognitive and social psychology, we describe a proposal for assessing and promoting replicability in infancy research: large‐scale, multi‐laboratory replication efforts aiming for a more precise understanding of key developmental phenomena. The ManyBabies project, our instantiation of this proposal, will not only help us estimate how robust and replicable these phenomena are, but also gain new theoretical insights into how they vary across ages, linguistic communities, and measurement methods. This project has the potential for a variety of positive outcomes, including less‐biased estimates of theoretically important effects, estimates of variability that can be used for later study planning, and a series of best‐practices blueprints for future infancy research.     

Attribution of Human VTEC O157 Infection from Meat Products: A Quantitative Risk Assessment Approach

To address the risk posed to human health by the consumption of VTEC O157 within contaminated pork, lamb, and beef products within Great Britain, a quantitative risk assessment model has been developed. This model aims to simulate the prevalence and amount of VTEC O157 in different meat products at consumption within a single model framework by adapting previously developed models. The model is stochastic in nature, enabling both variability (natural variation between animals, carcasses, products) and uncertainty (lack of knowledge) about the input parameters to be modeled. Based on the model assumptions and data, it is concluded that the prevalence of VTEC O157 in meat products (joints and mince) at consumption is low (i.e., <0.04%). Beef products, particularly beef burgers, present the highest estimated risk with an estimated eight out of 100,000 servings on average resulting in human infection with VTEC O157.     

Airline Safety Improvement Through Experience with Near‐Misses: A Cautionary Tale

In recent years, the U.S. commercial airline industry has achieved unprecedented levels of safety, with the statistical risk associated with U.S. commercial aviation falling to 0.003 fatalities per 100 million passengers. But decades of research on organizational learning show that success often breeds complacency and failure inspires improvement. With accidents as rare events, can the airline industry continue safety advancements? This question is complicated by the complex system in which the industry operates where chance combinations of multiple factors contribute to what are largely probabilistic (rather than deterministic) outcomes. Thus, some apparent successes are realized because of good fortune rather than good processes, and this research intends to bring attention to these events, the near‐misses. The processes that create these near‐misses could pose a threat if multiple contributing factors combine in adverse ways without the intervention of good fortune. Yet, near‐misses (if recognized as such) can, theoretically, offer a mechanism for continuing safety improvements, above and beyond learning gleaned from observable failure. We test whether or not this learning is apparent in the airline industry. Using data from 1990 to 2007, fixed effects Poisson regressions show that airlines learn from accidents (their own and others), and from one category of near‐misses—those where the possible dangers are salient. Unfortunately, airlines do not improve following near‐miss incidents when the focal event has no clear warnings of significant danger. Therefore, while airlines need to and can learn from certain near‐misses, we conclude with recommendations for improving airline learning from all near‐misses.     

One sided acceptance sampling by variables: the case of the laplace distribution

The theory of acceptance sampling by variables is well known when the underlying distribution is normal. When the normality assumption is not true, using the usual normal case method can be quite misleading. In this paper we deal with the Laplace distribution for both the standard deviation known and then unknown. We establish a decision rule for accepting a lot of product containing a defective proportion p. We determine the density function of the decision rule statistic, for small and large sample sizes. We give some practical ways to choose the sample size and the acceptance constant to obtain a desired operating characteristic curve     

Feasibility of a Telephone Follow-Up on Use of Emergency Contraceptive Pills in a College Health Center

Abstract

The authors examined the feasibility and effectiveness of a telephone follow-up procedure on use of emergency contraceptive pills (ECP) at a college health center. They made 264 telephone calls to the 97 women who had received ECPs during one 16-week academic semester and were successful in reaching 65 (67%) of the women, who responded with information about their experiences with ECPs. The women demonstrated a high rate of adherence to the medical regimen and reported very few side effects from ECPs; a majority said that ECPs did not affect their ability to carry out daily activities. On weighing the relative absence of problems following ECP distribution against the time, effort, and cost required to reach just over two thirds of the women, the researchers concluded that an ECP telephone follow-up procedure was neither cost-effective nor particularly useful.