Missing the wealthy in the HFCS: micro problems with macro implications

Wealth aggregates implied by the Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) usually yield much lower amounts than macroeconomic statistics reported in the National Accounts. An important source of this gap may be the under-representation of the wealthiest households in the HFCS. This article therefore combines a semi-parametric Pareto model estimated from top survey data and observations from rich lists with a non-parametric stratification approach to quantify the impact of the missing wealthy households on component-specific micro-macro gaps. We find that unadjusted micro data substantially underestimates wealth inequality. The largest effects are documented for equity. For other components, the missing wealthy explain less than ten percentage points of the micro-macro gap. We find that differences in oversampling strategies limit the cross-country comparability of unadjusted survey-implied wealth distributions and that our top tail adjustment leads to measures that are internationally better comparable.

     

Effects of Outcome and Probabilistic Ambiguity on Managerial Choices

Information ambiguity is prevalent in organizations and likely influences management decisions. This study examines, given imprecise probabilities and outcomes, how managers make choices when they are provided with single-figure benchmarks. Seventy-nine MBA students completed two experiments. We found that, in a decision framed as a decision under certainty involving an ambiguous outcome, the majority of the subjects were ambiguity prone in the loss condition and switched to ambiguity aversion in the gain condition. However, in the presence of probabilistic ambiguity in a decision under risk, this expected switching pattern was shown only when the difference in riskiness between the two choice options (in the loss condition) was perceived to be relatively small. In a companion study, we used a written protocol approach to identify factors that affect decision makers' investment choices when faced with ambiguous outcomes. Protocols frequently mentioned that the ambiguous outcome option was risky, even in the case which was framed as a decision under certainty in the problem statement. In a decision under risk with ambiguous outcomes, the combination of probabilistic risk and outcome ambiguity was seen as even more risky.     

The Becker-DeGroot-Marschak mechanism and generalized utility theories: Theoretical predictions and empirical observations

Karni and Safra [8] prove that the Becker-DeGroot-Marschak mechanism reveals a decision maker's true certainty equivalent of a lottery if and only if he satisfies the independence axiom. Segal [17] claims that this mechanism may reveal a violation of the reduction of compound lotteries axiom. This paper empirically tests these two interpretations. Our results show that the second interpretation fits better with the collected data. Moreover, we show by means of some nonexpected utility examples that these results are consistent with a wide range of functionals.     

Insurer ambiguity and market failure

A series of studies investigate the decision processes of actuaries, underwriters, and reinsurers in setting premiums for ambiguous and uncertain risks. Survey data on prices reveal that all three types of these insurance decision makers are risk averse and ambiguity averse. In addition, groups appear to be influenced in their premium-setting decisions by specific reference points such as expected loss and the concern with insolvency. This behavior is consistent with a growing analytical and empirical literature in economics and decision processes that investigates the role that uncertainty plays on managerial choices. Improved risk-assessment procedures and government involvement in providing protection against catastrophic losses may induce insurers to reduce premiums and broaden available coverage.This article is part of a larger effort supported by the National Science Foundation on The Role of Insurance, Compensation, Regulation, and Protective Behavior in Decision Making about Risk and Misfortune. We greatly appreciate the many helpful comments and suggestions by our colleagues on the project: Jon Baron, Colin Camerer, Neil Doherty, Jack Hershey, Eric Johnson, and Paul Kleindorfer. Support from NSF Grant #SES8809299 is gratefully acknowledged.     

An experimental evaluation of the descriptive validity of lottery-dependent utility theory

This article compares the performance of the expected utility (EU) and lottery-dependent expected utility (LDEU) models in predicting the actual choices of experimental subjects among risky options. In the process, we present two approaches for calibrating the LDEU model for an individual decision maker. The results indicate that while LDEU exhibits a higher potential for correctly predicting choice, the version of the model calibrated by indifference judgments does not outperform EU. We suggest a functional form for the parametric functions that defines the LDEU model, and discuss ways in which this function can be incorporated into choice-based assessment approaches to improve predictions.This research was supported in part by the Business Associates Fund at the Fuqua School of Business, Duke University.     

Depression,anxiety, and tobacco use: Overlapping impediments to sleep in a national sample of college students

ABSTRACT

Objectives: To examine how tobacco use and depression/anxiety disorders are related to disturbed sleep in college students. Participants: 85,138 undergraduate respondents (66.3% female, 74.5% white, non-Hispanic, ages 18–25) from the Spring 2011 American College Health Association–National College Health Assessment II database. Methods: Multivariate analyses of tobacco use (none, intermediate, daily) and mental health (diagnosed and/or symptomatic depression or anxiety) were used to predict sleep disturbance. Results: Daily tobacco use was associated with more sleep problems than binge drinking, illegal drug use, obesity, gender, and working >20 hours/week. Students with depression or anxiety reported more sleep disturbances than individuals without either disorder, and tobacco use in this population was associated with the most sleep problems. Conclusions: Tobacco use and depression/anxiety disorders are both independently associated with more sleep problems in college students. Students with depression and/or anxiety are more likely to be daily tobacco users, which likely exacerbates their sleep problems.     

Estimation of long-run inefficiency levels: a dynamic frontier approach

Cornwell, Schmidt, and Sickles (1990) and Kumbhakar (1990), among others, developed stochasticfrontier production models which allow firm specific inefficiency levels to change over time. These studies assumed arbitrary restrictions on the short-run dynamics of efficiency levels which have little theoretical justification. Further, the models are inappropriate for estimation of long-run efficiencies. We consider estimation of an alternative frontier model in which firmspecific technical inefficiency levels are autoregressive. This model is particularly useful to examine a potential dynamic link between technical innovations and production inefficiency levels. We apply our methodology to a panel of US airlines.     

An Evaluation of Behavioral Health Compliance and Microbial Risk Factors on Student Populations Within a High-Density Campus

Abstract

Objective: The aim of this Canadian study was to assess student behavioral response to disease transmission risk, while identifying high microbial deposition/transmission sites. Participants: A student survey was conducted during October 2009. Methods: The methods included a survey of students to assess use of health services, vaccination compliance, and hygiene along with a microbial analysis of potential transmission sites targeting specific residence buildings on campus. Results: Results indicated that most students maintained that they were worried about H1N1 and reported making changes in hygienic behavior, with the majority not planning to be vaccinated. The microbial analysis indicated contamination of fomites in co-ed residences to be higher than either male or female student residences. Conclusions: A consideration of physical space along with behavioral factors is required in order to properly assess risk pathways in the establishment of an evidence-based infection control plan for universities and their contiguous communities.