Dynamic Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: An Experimental Investigation of Choices Between Accumulator Gambles

This paper presents an experiment that is designed to be more effective than previous studies at reproducing in the laboratory the affective experiences of risk-taking, such as hope, fear, thrill, pain of loss, regret, disappointment or elation. The use of dynamic choice problems involving accumulator gambles, and a particular randomisation device to resolve them, are central to the design. Our results both are inconsistent with orthodox dynamic choice theory and cast doubt on the generality of effects observed in previous designs. We discuss these findings, in terms of the relative impacts on behaviour of affective experience and judgement.     

The Effects of Financial Incentives in Experiments: A Review and Capital-Labor-Production Framework

We review 74 experiments with no, low, or high performance-based financial incentives. The modal result has no effect on mean performance (though variance is usually reduced by higher payment). Higher incentive does improve performance often, typically judgment tasks that are responsive to better effort. Incentives also reduce “presentation” effects (e.g., generosity and risk-seeking). Incentive effects are comparable to effects of other variables, particularly “cognitive capital” and task “production” demands, and interact with those variables, so a narrow-minded focus on incentives alone is misguided. We also note that no replicated study has made rationality violations disappear purely by raising incentives.     

Prolegomena to a Paradigm: Narratives of Surrender

This article seeks to develop a paradigm for understanding the sociological meaning of narratives of surrender. Surrenders are boundary events in time and in space. Coming at the end of conflicts, surrenders are transitional and transformative occasions during which the emotional and symbolic landscapes of power are traced and highlighted. They mark the site of trauma and, depending on the manner in which they are accomplished, can alternately emphasize the degradation of the vanquished or the magnanimity of the victor. Surrenders are analyzed as simultaneously historical events, symbolic events, and political events.     

Comparison of Subsidy Schemes for Reducing Waiting Times in Healthcare Systems

This study analyzes subsidy schemes that are widely used in reducing waiting times for public healthcare service. We assume that public healthcare service has no user fee but an observable delay, while private healthcare service has a fee but no delay. Patients in the public system are given a subsidy s to use private service if their waiting times exceed a pre‐determined threshold t. We call these subsidy schemes (s, t) policies. As two extreme cases, the (s, t) policy is called an unconditional subsidy scheme if t = 0, and a full subsidy scheme if s is equal to the private service fee. There is a fixed budget constraint so that a scheme with larger s has a larger t. We assess policies using two criteria: total patient cost and serviceability (i.e., the probability of meeting a waiting time target for public service). We prove analytically that, if patients are equally sensitive to delay, a scheme with a smaller subsidy outperforms one with a larger subsidy on both criteria. Thus, the unconditional scheme dominates all other policies. Using empirically derived parameter values from the Hong Kong Cataract Surgery Program, we then compare policies numerically when patients differ in delay sensitivity. Total patient cost is now unimodal in subsidy amount: the unconditional scheme still yields the lowest total patient cost, but the full subsidy scheme can outperform some intermediate policies. Serviceability is unimodal too, and the full subsidy scheme can outperform the unconditional scheme in serviceability when the waiting time target is long.     

审计数据处理方法研究综述

对用于面向数据的计算机审计的数据处理方法进行了综述。首先阐述了审计数据处理在面向数据的计算机审计中的重要性,然后分析了目前常用的审计数据处理方法以及其在审计软件中的应用情况。最后,结合信息技术的发展现状,分析了目前正在探索的审计数据处理方法,并指出了审计数据处理方法研究的发展趋势。     

A century of U.S. censuses and the language characteristics of immigrants

Since 1890, every U.S. census but one has asked about the language characteristics of the U.S. population. This almost uninterrupted data series, however, has been shaped by contemporaneous presumptions about the ties between language and ethnicity, the likelihood of proficiency in English among various subgroups, and practical constraints. I describe shifts across censuses in the phrasing of questions about language, the coding of responses, and the subpopulations for which the questions were asked and the results were published. I then describe the data generated by these items and discuss their interpretation. I conclude with a summary of the major insights and limitations of a century's worth of data.     

Dropping out of university: A statistical analysis of the probability of withdrawal for UK university students

From individual level data for an entire cohort of undergraduate students in the 'old' universities in the UK, we use a binomial probit model to estimate the probability that an individual will 'drop out' of university before the completion of their degree course. We examine the cohort of students enrolling full time for a 3- or 4-year degree in the academic year 1989–1990. We find evidence to support both the hypothesis that the completion of courses by students is influenced by the extent of prior academic preparedness and the hypothesis that social integration at university is important. We also find an influence of unemployment in the county of prior residence, especially for poorer male students. Finally, we draw conclusions regarding the public policy of constructing university performance indicators in this area.     

Lessons learnt? Abuse in residential child care in Scotland

This paper draws on work carried out by Sen, Kendrick, Milligan and Hawthorn commissioned as pert of the Historic Abuse Systemic Review by the Scottish Executive in 2007. It considers the evidence‐based regarding abuse in residential child care from 1945 with a specific focus on Scotland. It reviews the context set for residential child care post‐1945 by the Clyde and Curtis reports, outlines how the residential child care sector developed following this, provides an overview of evidence and awareness of abuse in residential child care establishments after the 1948 Children's Act, giving particular consideration to the public inquiries and reviews of residential child care which there have been in Scotland, explores research evidence regarding the safety of convictions of residential child care workers found guilty of child abuse, and provides an overview of the main policy and practice developments which there have subsequently been in Scotland. The paper concludes by considering the progress that has been made in developing safeguards in Scotland and identifying areas where further research and development are required.     

Are bygones bygones?

This article reports an experiment which tests the principle of separability, i.e. that behaviour in a dynamic choice problem is independent of history and of unreachable eventualities. Although this is a well-known principle of orthodox decision theory and central to conventional economic modelling, it has been questioned on grounds suggested by non-expected utility models of choice under risk and by the psychology of affective influences on risk-taking. Our experimental design, which provides between-subjects tests of separability using three treatments in which the history preceding a decision is manipulated, is inspired by these concerns. We expose separability to a clean and harsh test, but find no evidence that it is violated.