全文获取类型
收费全文 | 13378篇 |
免费 | 354篇 |
国内免费 | 1篇 |
专业分类
管理学 | 1605篇 |
民族学 | 74篇 |
人才学 | 3篇 |
人口学 | 1314篇 |
丛书文集 | 57篇 |
理论方法论 | 1122篇 |
综合类 | 128篇 |
社会学 | 6345篇 |
统计学 | 3085篇 |
出版年
2023年 | 89篇 |
2022年 | 82篇 |
2021年 | 97篇 |
2020年 | 249篇 |
2019年 | 310篇 |
2018年 | 452篇 |
2017年 | 561篇 |
2016年 | 405篇 |
2015年 | 297篇 |
2014年 | 394篇 |
2013年 | 2504篇 |
2012年 | 538篇 |
2011年 | 358篇 |
2010年 | 329篇 |
2009年 | 244篇 |
2008年 | 284篇 |
2007年 | 283篇 |
2006年 | 278篇 |
2005年 | 260篇 |
2004年 | 210篇 |
2003年 | 221篇 |
2002年 | 229篇 |
2001年 | 329篇 |
2000年 | 295篇 |
1999年 | 274篇 |
1998年 | 210篇 |
1997年 | 176篇 |
1996年 | 225篇 |
1995年 | 195篇 |
1994年 | 201篇 |
1993年 | 170篇 |
1992年 | 206篇 |
1991年 | 218篇 |
1990年 | 200篇 |
1989年 | 174篇 |
1988年 | 194篇 |
1987年 | 180篇 |
1986年 | 145篇 |
1985年 | 179篇 |
1984年 | 184篇 |
1983年 | 156篇 |
1982年 | 124篇 |
1981年 | 100篇 |
1980年 | 98篇 |
1979年 | 121篇 |
1978年 | 94篇 |
1977年 | 81篇 |
1975年 | 65篇 |
1974年 | 67篇 |
1973年 | 60篇 |
排序方式: 共有10000条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
11.
Random effects regression mixture models are a way to classify longitudinal data (or trajectories) having possibly varying lengths. The mixture structure of the traditional random effects regression mixture model arises through the distribution of the random regression coefficients, which is assumed to be a mixture of multivariate normals. An extension of this standard model is presented that accounts for various levels of heterogeneity among the trajectories, depending on their assumed error structure. A standard likelihood ratio test is presented for testing this error structure assumption. Full details of an expectation-conditional maximization algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation are also presented. This model is used to analyze data from an infant habituation experiment, where it is desirable to assess whether infants comprise different populations in terms of their habituation time. 相似文献
12.
We propose testing procedures for the hypothesis that a given set of discrete observations may be formulated as a particular time series of counts with a specific conditional law. The new test statistics incorporate the empirical probability-generating function computed from the observations. Special emphasis is given to the popular models of integer autoregression and Poisson autoregression. The asymptotic properties of the proposed test statistics are studied under the null hypothesis as well as under alternatives. A Monte Carlo power study on bootstrap versions of the new methods is included as well as real-data examples. 相似文献
13.
Previous research has evaluated public risk perception and response to a natural hazards in various settings; however, most of these studies were conducted either with a single scenario or after a natural disaster struck. To better understand the dynamic relationships among affect, risk perception, and behavioral intentions related to natural disasters, the current study implements a simulation scenario with escalating weather intensity, and includes a natural experiment allowing comparison of public response before and after a severe tornado event with extensive coverage by the national media. The current study also manipulated the display of warning information, and investigated whether the warning system display format influences public response. Results indicate that (1) affect, risk perception, and behavioral intention escalated as weather conditions deteriorated, (2) responses at previous stages predicted responses at subsequent stages of storm progression, and (3) negative affect predicted risk perception. Moreover, risk perception and behavioral intention were heightened after exposure to the media coverage of an actual tornado disaster. However, the display format manipulation did not influence behavioral responses. The current study provides insight regarding public perception of predisaster warnings and the influence of exposure to media coverage of an actual disaster event. 相似文献
14.
Decades of research identify risk perception as a largely intuitive and affective construct, in contrast to the more deliberative assessments of probability and consequences that form the foundation of risk assessment. However, a review of the literature reveals that many of the risk perception measures employed in survey research with human subjects are either generic in nature, not capturing any particular affective, probabilistic, or consequential dimension of risk; or focused solely on judgments of probability. The goal of this research was to assess a multidimensional measure of risk perception across multiple hazards to identify a measure that will be broadly useful for assessing perceived risk moving forward. Our results support the idea of risk perception being multidimensional, but largely a function of individual affective reactions to the hazard. We also find that our measure of risk perception holds across multiple types of hazards, ranging from those that are behavioral in nature (e.g., health and safety behaviors), to those that are technological (e.g., pollution), or natural (e.g., extreme weather). We suggest that a general, unidimensional measure of risk may accurately capture one's perception of the severity of the consequences, and the discrete emotions that are felt in response to those potential consequences. However, such a measure is not likely to capture the perceived probability of experiencing the outcomes, nor will it be as useful at understanding one's motivation to take mitigation action. 相似文献
15.
Sant’Anna Annibal Parracho de Freitas Siqueira Sadok Menna Barreto Márcia 《Social indicators research》2020,148(3):733-746
Social Indicators Research - This paper analyses the Human Development Index (HDI) time series from 2010 to 2017. An alternative index is studied, which combines the same components of the HDI by... 相似文献
16.
The socio-economic literature has focused much on how overall inequality in income distribution (frequently measured by the Gini coefficient) undermines the “trickle down” effect. In other words, the higher the inequality in the income distribution, the lower is the growth elasticity of poverty. However, with the publication of Piketty’s magnum opus (2014), and a subsequent study by Chancel and Piketty (2017) of evolution of income inequality in India since 1922, the focus has shifted to the income disparity between the richest 1% (or 0.01%) and the bottom 50%. Their central argument is that the rapid growth of income at the top end of millionaires and billionaires is a by-product of growth. The present study extends this argument by linking it to poverty indices in India. Based on the India Human Development Survey 2005–12 – a nationwide panel survey-we examine the links between poverty and income inequality, especially in the upper tail relative to the bottom 50%, state affluence (measured in per capita income) and their interaction or their joint effect. Another feature of our research is that we analyse their effects on the FGT class of poverty indices. The results are similar in as much as direction of association is concerned but the elasticities vary with the poverty index. The growth elasticities are negative and significant for all poverty indices. In all three cases, the disparity between the income share of the top 1% and share of the bottom 50% is associated with greater poverty. These elasticities are much higher than the (absolute) income elasticities except in the case of the poverty gap. The largest increase occurs in the poverty gap squared – a 1% greater income disparity is associated with a 1.24% higher value of this index. Thus the consequences of even a small increase in the income disparity are alarming for the poorest. 相似文献
17.
18.
T. S. Ferguson 《Statistical Papers》1995,36(1):31-40
A class of symmetric bivariate uniform distributions is proposed for use in statistical modeling. The distributions may be
constructed to be absolutely continuous with correlations as close to±1 as desired. Expressions for the correlations, regressions
and copulas are found. An extension to three dimensions is proposed. 相似文献
19.
S. El-Arishy 《Statistical Papers》1995,36(1):145-154
We present a new characterization technique extracted from a well known idea in statistical inference. We use the partial derivative of the logarithm of the survival function in connection with truncated moments to characterize several probability distributions. Our methods introduce a unified technique to obtain several well known results in a unified way. 相似文献
20.
This study tests a hypothesis that Mexican foreign‐born immigrants who came to the United States for economic reasons naturalize less often than Cubans who immigrate for political reasons. It uses information from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, Latino Sample, a national sample of 7,453 respondents from the 1989 Latino National Political Survey (LNPS) and the 1990 Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). Ordinal logistic regression is used to examine the hypothesis. The results indicate that while more Mexicans plan to apply or have applied for naturalization, proportionately more Cubans than Mexicans have naturalized. Cuban political immigrants who came to the United States during the first half of the 1960s naturalize more often than their Mexican counterparts. However, the effect of ethnic identity on naturalization is mediated by a number of other predictors of naturalization such as gender, race, urban residence, socioeconomic status and acculturation. 相似文献