The Use of Simulation to Reduce the Domain of “Black Swans” with Application to Hurricane Impacts to Power Systems

Recently, the concept of black swans has gained increased attention in the fields of risk assessment and risk management. Different types of black swans have been suggested, distinguishing between unknown unknowns (nothing in the past can convincingly point to its occurrence), unknown knowns (known to some, but not to relevant analysts), or known knowns where the probability of occurrence is judged as negligible. Traditional risk assessments have been questioned, as their standard probabilistic methods may not be capable of predicting or even identifying these rare and extreme events, thus creating a source of possible black swans. In this article, we show how a simulation model can be used to identify previously unknown potentially extreme events that if not identified and treated could occur as black swans. We show that by manipulating a verified and validated model used to predict the impacts of hazards on a system of interest, we can identify hazard conditions not previously experienced that could lead to impacts much larger than any previous level of impact. This makes these potential black swan events known and allows risk managers to more fully consider them. We demonstrate this method using a model developed to evaluate the effect of hurricanes on energy systems in the United States; we identify hurricanes with potentially extreme impacts, storms well beyond what the historic record suggests is possible in terms of impacts.     

Restoring Meaning to Supervision Through a Peer Consultation Group in Rural Australia

The establishment of a cross-discipline peer consultation group in regional Australia is described. A research project, which explored the impact of the peer consultation on participants, using pre-group and post-group evaluation surveys along with data from an externally facilitated group evaluation session is discussed. Key findings reveal the value of access to varied modes of supervision; the importance of supervision not feeling like being subjected to surveillance; and the contribution that positive experiences of peer consultation have for our participants' well-being. The potential for improved connection and mutual benefits for practice and academia in sponsorship of professional peer consultation by regional universities also emerges from this research. The effectiveness of contemporary workplace counselling supervision arrangements, and of what, precisely, the enjoyment of engaging in case discussions in peer consultation groups is constituted are areas for more exploration.     

“Either Side of Delphy Bridge”: A deep mapping project evoking and engaging the lives of older adults in rural North Cornwall

This article reports on work to date by an arts practice-led research team exploring older adults’ conceptions of, and connectivity with, the physical, social and cultural landscapes in which they locate themselves. The team is based at the Department of Art and Design, University of the West of England (UWE) and has conducted fieldwork, interviews and small-scale interactions in an area of rural North Cornwall with a view to “deep mapping” older adults’ “lived landscapes” using a variety of practical methods derived from creative arts practices, critical reflection on deep mapping, ethnographic approaches, and referencing a range of theoretical positions. The project forms part of a work package within “Grey and Pleasant Land? An interdisciplinary exploration of the connectivity of older people in rural civic society” (abbreviated below as GaPL), funded by the UK Cross-Research Council ‘New Dynamics of Ageing’ Programme. In what follows we will describe and critically discuss the fieldwork undertaken and the various ways in which the performative interactions and the creative multimedia evocations that draw on the team’s interactions with older people might extend the growing dialogue between deep mapping, visual and other innovative ethnographies, and critical gerontology.     

How do people differentiate between jobs: and how do they define a good job?

Employed individuals from a range of jobs (n=18) were interviewed using a repertory grid technique, to explore the criteria they used to distinguish between different jobs. The concepts of 'a good job' and 'a job good for health' were also discussed. Interactions with others and the job itself were the most commonly used criteria and were also the most common features of a 'good job'. Pay and security were mentioned frequently but were less important when comparing jobs and when defining a 'good job'. Physical activity was rarely associated by interviewees with a 'good job' but was frequently associated with a 'job good for health'. A comprehensive definition of a 'good job' needs to take all these factors into account.     

Two Teacher Educators Go to the Source: Teaching an Interdisciplinary Class in an Urban Charter High School

The authors of this article are two teacher educators who worked collaboratively to co-teach an interdisciplinary English and US history class to eleventh-grade students in an urban high school. They wanted to ensure the methods they were teaching preservice teachers were current and effective. The article discusses the foundational beliefs that influenced their teaching, the interdisciplinary curriculum they taught, some of the challenges they encountered, and a brief snapshot of the students' views of the curriculum. The authors discuss that putting their beliefs into practice outweighed the challenges they encountered—a culturally relevant, authentic, interdisciplinary curriculum can be effective in an urban classroom. The experience also assisted them in teaching their English and social studies methods classes.     

The Prevalence of Uncorrected Refractive Errors in Adolescents Incarcerated in a Youth Detention Center

The purpose of this study was to determine the number of residents requiring corrective lenses in a youth detention center for juveniles from 12 to 18 years old over a 2-year period. A greater number of adolescents incarcerated for criminal activity in a detention center had uncorrected refractive errors (34.87 %) as compared to a comparable population in the public school system (22 %). The prevalence of significant refractive errors among incarcerated adolescents in this study is significantly higher than has been reported previously. The current study found a refractive error rate of almost 35 %. This difference can be explained by a number of factors in their social environments and identifies an area for potential intervention to reduce antisocial behavior in this population.     

Bargaining over waiting time in ultimatum game experiments

While preference-based explanations play an increasing role in economics and sociology, the accurate measurement of social preferences deserves more attention. Most laboratory experiments measure social preferences by studying the division of “a cake that nobody had to bake” (Güth and Kliemt, 2003). This article reports results of the first ultimatum game experiment with bargaining over waiting time. The experiment was created to avoid effects of windfall gains. In contrast to donated money, time is not endowed by the experimenter and implies a natural loss to subjects. This allows for a better measurement of the inherent conflict in the ultimatum game. We implemented three anonymity conditions; one baseline condition, one condition with anonymity among subjects and one double-blind condition in which the experimenter did not know the division of waiting time. While we expected to observe less other-regarding behavior in ultimatum game bargaining over time, our experimental results rather confirm previous ultimatum game experiments, in which people bargained over money. The modal offer was half of the waiting time and only one offer was rejected. Interestingly, anonymity did not change the results significantly. In conclusion, our experiment confirms other-regarding behavior in the ultimatum game.     

Bauer on Aid

Book reviewed in this article: Reality and Rhetoric. Studies in the Economics of Development. By P.T. Bauer