An axiomatic derivation of subjective probability,utility, and evaluation functions

Subjective expected utility maximization is derived from four axioms, using an argument based on the separating hyperplane theorem. It is also shown that the first three of these axioms imply a more general maximization formula, involving an evaluation function, which can still serve as a basis for decision analysis.     

The nature of the connection between life course and satisfaction with community services

Research on satisfaction with community services has used both age and life cycle stage as predictors of satisfaction. As both age and life cycle stage are indicators of life course, their relative advantages in service satisfaction research need to be assessed. The authors correlated both age and life cycle stage with twenty service satisfaction items and with item non-response (a measure of the salience of a service). Results were: (1) associations with service satisfaction were linear, (2) some associations with salience were markedly curvilinear, and (3) as predictors of service satisfaction, age and life cycle performed similarly. The choice between age and life cycle as predictors of service satisfaction appears to involve conceptual as well as empirical issues.     

Venture management—success or failure?

The considerable amount of published literature on venture management is reviewed in an attempt to see how successful this technique is in promoting new products. It was found that earlier articles were optimistic but later articles were more realistic with several describing failed projects.

An attempt is made to relate this with the published literature on the failure of traditional Research and Development but little published evidence is available. The role of New Towns in innovation is briefly mentioned. Finally the reasons for failure are identified and guidelines are established as a means of making venture groups more successful.     

The Use of Multiplicity in a Household Survey of Disabilities

The multiplicity technique has been proposed (Sirken, 1970) as a means of improving estimates of the number of rare “events” in a population. This paper describes one use of this technique, namely estimation of the number of persons with certain types of disability living in private dwellings in Canberra. The results are taken from three household surveys conducted in Canberra during 1978–79 in which a multiplicity rule linking parents, siblings and children of residents of sample households who were also living in private dwellings in Canberra was used. While no direct evidence on the level of non-sampling error is available here, it appears that net response errors at least are not substantial using this multiplicity rule and that a reasonable gain in sampling efficiency results from the use of multiplicity.     

Minimax subset selection for the multinomial distribution

Let (X₁,…,X_k) be a multinomial vector with unknown cell probabilities (p₁,?,p_k). A subset of the cells is to be selected in a way so that the cell associated with the smallest cell probability is included in the selected subset with a preassigned probability, P¹. Suppose the loss is measured by the size of the selected subset, S. Using linear programming techniques, selection rules can be constructed which are minimax with respect to S in the class of rules which satisfy the P¹-condition. In some situations, the rule constructed by this method is the rule proposed by Nagel (1970). Similar techniques also work for selection in terms of the largest cell probability.     

江苏产研院:架两世界桥梁,迎产学研挑战

从表面上看,大学和产业似乎自然而然是结合对象:大学创造技术,产业运用技术来制造产品,两者应是终身伴侣.大学和产业之间确实有着许多成功的合作伙伴关系.然而,就像一些婚姻一样,双方平稳相处是很有挑战性的.