Evidence bearing on the construct validity of "ideal family size"

George Gallup polled "ideal family size" in 1936 and introduced a concept which subsequently appeared in many polls and fertility surveys. Previous research shows that ideal is a poor measure of respondent's personal fertility plans or behavior and that among researchers there is little agreement about what ideal family size does measure, if anything. Construct validity analysis based on historical, trend, and cross-sectional data suggests that the late 1960s saw ideal politicized as preoccupation with the "population problem" grew. Ideal family size is now appropriately regarded as a measure of a societal pronatalist norm and not merely a projected fertility preference.A version of this paper was presented at the meetings of the Society for Applied Anthropology, Merida, Mexico, 5 April 1978. Data on ideal family size from Blake (1974) are used with permission of the editors ofDemography. Other data come from the 1965 and 1970 National Fertility Studies co-directed by N.B. Ryder and C.F. Westoff (under contract No. PH-43-65-1048 with the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development).     

End-to-end process management: implications for theory and practice

The term ‘end-to-end’ process management is now commonplace in the language and practice of operations. Managers are encouraged to migrate from functional process management to end-to-end process management to realise a range of performance improvements. However, these improvements are often elusive; the specific challenges associated with such a migration are under-researched. This paper uses a cross-sector study to identify the challenges of end-to-end process management and to generate practical managerial guidance. Three areas are identified that demand particular managerial attention: the need to move beyond process mapping, the role of IT in process management and maintaining the process infrastructure as a strategic asset. More significantly, the findings highlight the need for greater conceptual clarity regarding the end-to-end concept itself. The existing literature suggests that scope is the primary differentiator of the end-to-end process – the requirement to manage an extended boundary from customer order through to customer fulfilment. However, this research suggests that the end-to-end concept is more complex, comprising of three core constructs with seven dimensions: scope (boundary conditions, sequence/flow and controls); scale (resources and input/output transformation) and complexity (interrelationships and orientation). End-to-end process management involves much more than an extended boundary. It requires a systemic perspective and clarity regarding controls and transforming resources.     

Ranked Items Auctions and Online Advertisement

We study auctions for a set of commonly‐ranked items where each buyer has unit demand. This setting has promising applications in areas such as keyword auctions in the search engine advertising industry, the sale of quality‐ranked raw materials, etc. An auction mechanism suitable for this setting is the simultaneous pooled auction (SPA), where each bidder simultaneously submits a single bid and is allocated an object based on the rank of his bid among all the bids. We study how to improve the seller's expected revenue by enforcing a reserve price in an SPA. We find that the use of an appropriate reserve price may significantly increase the seller's revenue, especially when the number of items for sale is relatively large compared to the number of participating bidders. One inherent problem in the SPA is that some bidders may incur ex post losses; that is, they pay more than what they value the received objects. We propose a tailored VCG mechanism that generates the same expected revenue as the SPA does, while bidders do not incur any ex post loss. We also discuss the potential applications of this research to keyword auctions.     

On the relationship between Spearman's rho and Kendall's tau for pairs of continuous random variables

It has long been known that for many joint distributions exhibiting weak dependence, the sample value of Spearman's rho is about 50% larger than the sample value of Kendall's tau. We explain this behavior by showing that for the population analogs of these statistics, the ratio of rho to tau approaches 3/2$3/2$ as the joint distribution approaches that of two independent random variables. We also find sufficient conditions for determining the direction of the inequality between three times tau and twice rho when the underlying joint distribution is absolutely continuous.     

Motivational Enhancement Counseling Strategies in Delivering a Telephone-Based Brief HIV Prevention Intervention

Motivational enhancement therapy (MET) interventions are being increasingly added to the menu of behavioral interventions for HIV prevention. They present few logistical and psychological barriers for at-risk persons who are ambivalent about transmission risk reduction and appear to offer promise of being transferable to community based organizations and public health programs. We describe the principles of motivational interviewing, a counseling style often used in conjunction with MET, and demonstrate and discuss its application with case examples drawn from a recent pilot trial of a telephone-delivered brief motivational enhancement for HIV risk reduction with men who have sex with men (MSM).     

TEACHING EFFECTIVENESS IN THE DECISION SCIENCES: THE USE OF STUDENT EVALUATIONS

This article presents the results of an AIDS-sponsored investigation of teaching effectiveness in the decision sciences. Two national samples were employed in the study: a sample of 247 business school deans and a sample of 3,292 students from 32 different business schools. Included among the findings are that 87 percent of the deans responding indicate they require some sort of faculty teaching effectiveness evaluation, and that great care must be exercised when interpreting student ratings of an individual instructor's teaching effectiveness.     

AUTOCORRELATED CASH FLOWS AND THE SELECTION OF A PORTFOLIO OF CAPITAL ASSETS *

Capital budgeting models for analyzing real assets typically are based on a set of restrictive assumptions that influence financial managers' decisions and may prevent optimization of the firm's objectives. This research examines the common restrictive assumption that cash flows are intertemporally independent by first developing an economic state and simulation model based on a Markov process for including autocorrelated cash flows in the capital budgeting decision process and then demonstrating why managers should include autocorrelated cash flows in capital budgeting models by empirically testing the impact of assuming intertemporally independent cash flows on capital budgeting decisions. The results indicate that ignoring autocorrelated cash flows seriously limits the ability of capital budgeting models to provide optimal investment decisions. The model also is very attractive for practical application because it can be implemented with a minimum number of estimates and provides the set of input data required by a number of capital budgeting models. A discussion of the implementation of the model is included.     

RETURN ON INVESTMENT AS A CRITERION FOR INVENTORY MODELS

In the past most inventory formulations have utilized cost minimization or profit maximization as an optimizing criterion. When viewed from the standpoint of the owner or investor, maximizing the return on investment (ROI) is an appropriate criterion for many types of inventories. This paper proposes ROI as a criterion for inventory models and derives optimal reorder rules for some common assumptions. An economic order quantity that differs greatly from the traditional formulas is discussed. The paper also enumerates the conditions under which ROI is an appropriate criterion and contrasts it to the traditional cost minimization and profit maximization criteria.     

AN EXPERIMENTAL EVALUATION OF THE RELATIONSHIP OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE ENVIRONMENT TO INFORMATION USED BY DECISION MAKERS*

This paper discusses the relationship between uncertainty in a decision making environment and the desired characteristics of information used for decision making. The work is aimed at providing a better understanding of the variables that affect the design of Management Information Systems. An experiment was conducted using an inventory simulator. The subjects could decide on inventory control variables and the amount and type of information to be used in monitoring system performance. The demand for inventory was an external random variable under the control of the experimenter. The experiment investigated how different demand variances affected the decision information used, the decisions made, and the resulting decision effectiveness (cost.) It was found that decision review frequency was not affected by demand variability. However, age and degree of summary of information used were greatly affected. Subjects exposed to high variability used data with a shorter history and a higher level of detail than those exposed to low variability. It was also found that the number of reports used increased from the low to middle variance group, then decreased at very high variance. Subjects tended to “give-up” on their information system at high variance, and they relied on additional safety stock to prevent frequent stockouts. Finally, the correlation between the information used and decision effectiveness as measured by cost was low. This result was contrary to the subjects' beliefs that more and better information produced “better” decisions. It indicates that although variability may strongly affect preferences for different types of information, the information used may not in turn affect decision performance.