Mark-resighting analysis of a California gull population

California gulls ( Larus californicus ) of known age and sex were censused on their breeding colony in 1979, 1980 and 1984 through 1993. Ages of 235 males and 196 females ranged from 4 to 27 years. Age classes used in the analysis were limited to 17, 4 through 19, and 20 or more as a final age category because data on gulls over 20 were sparse. Survival declined with age in a way that was parsimoniously modelled with a quadratic function. Other factors, sex and time, did not explain any variation in survival. Resighting depended on age, sex and time. Younger adults skipped breeding more frequently than did older adults, and females skipped breeding more frequently than did males. There was also good evidence for time dependence in resighting probability, but its inclusion in the model occurred at the expense of interpretability and precision. In a data set such as this, resighting probability may assume more importance than a mere 'nuisance parameter'. In this study, resighting history measured attendance at the breeding ground. In turn, attendance rates may be a manifestation of reproductive strategy, which can also have consequences for survival. In this situation, there may be heterogeneity in both survival and resighting probability that is unexplained by the model. While such complexity may well be a nuisance to deal with, it can also point to important biological questions.     

Urban development strategy in an era of global competition: The case of south China

The economic structure of south China, including Hong Kong, has undergone rapid changes in the last 20 years. The transformation is more rapid in the wake of the opening up of China's economic system. This paper argues from the vantage point of the New International Division of Labour (NIDL) and investigates the impact of economic development and urban development strategies on the region. It reviews the process of economic development and the flows of resources, capital and labour forces in China as a whole, with special reference to Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta region. Increasing economic integration has led to interaction in the planning domain, such as in infrastructural development. Selected development strategies have also been employed and these will be discussed in detail. The paper concludes that future development between Hong Kong and south China will be a symbiotic one and that the implementation of a sustainable urban development strategy is vital to the continued growth of the region.     

Diversity in the School Problems of Economically Disadvantaged Adolescents: Dual Pathways of Reading and Externalizing Problems

This study of economically disadvantaged 13-year-olds examined the relations between serious reading difficulties and clinical levels of externalizing behaviors in school. The variable-centered results showed that family variables, adolescent verbal ability, and negative emotion patterns differed in uniquely predicting reading achievement and externalizing behaviors. The person-centered analyses established robust groups of adolescents showing problems in a single domain, both domains, or neither domain, and that family and adolescent variables distinguished the adolescent groups in predictable ways. Longitudinal results available for a subsample showed that high problem levels for the groups were stable across elementary school and associated with first-grade characteristics. The results provide evidence for relatively independent pathways of reading and externalizing difficulties for young disadvantaged adolescents.     

Sex, ‘the’ family,and the Religious New Right

A blend of critical analysis and positive alternatives to the Religious New Right's treatment of sexual and family issues is developed. The single issue approach of the New Right is analyzed. Authoritarian and reproductive-sexual issues are discussed in light of attempts to legislate religious beliefs. Key topics include: equal rights for women, family violence, abortion rights, homosexual rights, sex education in the schools, The Family Protection Act, The Teenage Chastity Bill, The Consenting Adults Bill, and positive alternatives to the repressive New Right. The traditional family is defined as a minority group attempting to control sexual-intimate expression. Competing conceptualizations of privacy and the right of individuals to make their own sexual choices are presented.     

Variations in Household Telephone Access: Implications for Telephone Surveys

The growing proportion of households that have telephones and the increasing cost of face-to-face interviewing have led to greater interest in the use of telephone surveys in Australia over recent years. However about 20 per cent of private households do not have a telephone service, which could give rise to significant biases in population estimates derived from telephone surveys if no adjustment is made to take account of the differences between those with and without telephone access. This paper examines these differences and suggests ways in which their possible effects might be overcome.     

The relation between unemployment and interest rate:

In bierens (1987) a granger casual relation was found between unemployment and the interest rate for the netherlands. In the present paper we will investigate whether there exists a similar granger casual relation between unemployment and interest rate for a number of other countries. It appears that, with our ARMAX modeling approach, this relationship is not confined to the netherlands, but also holds for the USA, Canada, Japan, Germany, the UK and France. For these countries the interest rate is the main explanatory variable, together with industrial production (the latter with one exception), whereas for most countries the wage rate is of minor or no importance as a determinant of unemployment. A number of economic theories can explain these phenomena of which the revenue maximization theory of baumol (1959) augmented with a flexible labor effort rate seems quite realistic