Efficiency of Betting Markets and Rationality of Players: Evidence from the French 6/49 Lotto

We analyse the existence of preferred numbers on the French Lotto market and prove that this market is not strongly efficient in the sense of Thaler & Ziemba (1988). The preference for low numbers is investigated by means of stochastic dominance tests. The specific features of the French Lotto game allow us to build a simple estimate of the probability distribution of numbers actually played. The results are compared with the (highly time-consuming) maximum likelihood estimator used by Farrell et al. (2000). It is shown that the two methods give very close results. Our conclusions stress the perspectives of this study in various domains.     

Mother–Infant Person‐ and Object‐Directed Interactions in Latino Immigrant Families: A Comparative Approach

Cultural variation in durations, relations, and contingencies of mother–infant person‐and object‐directed behaviors were examined for 121 nonmigrant Latino mother–infant dyads in South America, Latina immigrants from South America and their infants living in the United States, and European American mother–infant dyads. Nonmigrant Latina mothers and infants engaged in person‐directed behaviors longer than Latino immigrant or European American mothers and infants. Mother and infant person‐directed behaviors were positively related; mother and infant object‐related behaviors were related for some cultural groups but not others. Nearly all mother and infant behaviors were mutually contingent. Mothers were more responsive to infants' behaviors than infants were to mothers. Some cultural differences in responsiveness emerged. Immigrant status has a differentiated role in mother–infant interactions.     

Regulating Under Uncertainty: Newsboy for Exposure Limits

Setting action levels or limits for health protection is complicated by uncertainty in the dose-response relation across a range of hazards and exposures. To address this issue, we consider the classic newsboy problem. The principles used to manage uncertainty for that case are applied to two stylized exposure examples, one for high dose and high dose rate radiation and the other for ammonia. Both incorporate expert judgment on uncertainty quantification in the dose-response relationship. The mathematical technique of probabilistic inversion also plays a key role. We propose a coupled approach, whereby scientists quantify the dose-response uncertainty using techniques such as structured expert judgment with performance weights and probabilistic inversion, and stakeholders quantify associated loss rates.     

Crises and Natural Disasters: a Review of Two Schools of Study Drawing on Australian Wildfire Experience

The connection between “schools” of study focusing on crises and on natural disasters is explored. After considering the rise of separate schools, the article notes significant attempts to integrate them and suggests that, while natural disasters and other big crises have much in common, there are still some important differences that need to be taken into account in designing relevant management systems. Drawing particularly on Australian wildfire experience, the article then looks more briefly at the question of political leadership in disaster situations, and at serious problems that often occur in the reporting of those situations.

Stable sets and standards of behaviour

In this paper we present a constructive, behavioural and axiomatic approach to the notion of a stable set as a model of the standard of behaviour of a social organisation. The socially stable set we introduce is a generalisation of the von Neumann-Morgenstern stable set. In contrast with the original version, our stability concept is always solvable. The standard of behaviour, reflecting the established conceptual order of a society or organisation, emerges from a dominance relation on alternative conceptions that are relevant with regard to a certain issue. This common social choice phenomenon, that permeates our societies and organisations, we have tried to clarify. Two axiomatic characterisations as well as a construction algorithm for socially stable sets are presented. These characterisations are based on behavioural postulates regarding the individual or collective strategic behaviour of effective sets. Relations between socially stable sets and other notions of stability are discussed. Received: 4 May 1998/13 March 2000     

Introduction to the Special Issue on Theory Development in Operations Management

Rigorous development of theory in operations management has been lacking. Although many theories have been proposed, they are often not developed in a format and depth that can be falsified, refined, or supported. This special issue includes three papers that illustrate rigorous development of theory for future testing using mathematical, simulation, or managerial approaches.     

Ping‐pong poms: emotional reflexivity in contemporary return migration from Australia to the United Kingdom

About 20,000 people from the United Kingdom emigrate to Australia each year. Of these, a significant number return to the United Kingdom, and some return again to Australia. Studies of such patterns of migration and return (and return again) were quite common a few decades ago, but are now rare. This paper makes use of a contemporary data source – an Internet‐mediated discussion forum – to explore the experiences of modern ‘ping‐pong poms’. A picture emerges of these migrants as exercising emotional reflexivity in dealing with the pull of family left behind, ‘homesickness’, the lack of a sense of belonging and their often‐disappointed dreams of a ‘better life’. By understanding the importance of emotions in people's decisions about return migration, policy can better attend to the realities of more mobile lives.     

The 1991–2004 Evolution in Life Expectancy by Educational Level in Belgium Based on Linked Census and Population Register Data

The aim of this study is to determine trends in life expectancy by educational level in Belgium and to present elements of interpretation for the observed evolution. The analysis is based on census data providing information on educational level linked to register data on mortality for the periods 1991–1994 and 2001–2004. Using exhaustive individual linked data allows to avoid selection bias and numerator–denominator bias. The trends reveal a general increase in life expectancy together with a widening social gap. Summary indices of inequality based on life expectancies show, however, a more complex pattern and point to the importance to include the shifts in population composition by educational level in an overall assessment of the evolution of inequality by educational level.