Statistical approaches for conducting network meta-analysis in drug development

We introduce health technology assessment and evidence synthesis briefly, and then concentrate on the statistical approaches used for conducting network meta-analysis (NMA) in the development and approval of new health technologies. NMA is an extension of standard meta-analysis where indirect as well as direct information is combined and can be seen as similar to the analysis of incomplete-block designs. We illustrate it with an example involving three treatments, using fixed-effects and random-effects models, and using frequentist and Bayesian approaches. As most statisticians in the pharmaceutical industry are familiar with SAS? software for analyzing clinical trials, we provide example code for each of the methods we illustrate. One issue that has been overlooked in the literature is the choice of constraints applied to random effects, and we show how this affects the estimates and standard errors and propose a symmetric set of constraints that is equivalent to most current practice. Finally, we discuss the role of statisticians in planning and carrying out NMAs and the strategy for dealing with important issues such as heterogeneity.     

Social work and the shadow father: lessons for engaging fathers in Northern Ireland

The legislative framework of social work practice has consistently highlighted the need to work in partnership with parents, with far‐reaching implications for families. However, the importance of engaging fathers in social work practice is an issue that has received limited attention within academic debate and research. A research study undertaken across six family centres, investigated paternal involvement in family centre social work in Northern Ireland. The study involved 46 semi‐structured interviews with social workers, fathers and mothers. This paper presents the views of 22 social workers on the barriers to paternal involvement in family centre interventions. A range of factors were identified which served to inhibit or promote engagement of fathers. There were substantially more deterrents than promoters, a clear indicator of the problematic nature of paternal involvement. The findings highlight that both attitudes and practices of social workers influence the engagement of fathers. Recommendations drawn from the findings are presented for the development of father – inclusive social work practices and research.     

Will‐making prevalence and patterns in Australia: keeping it in the family

This article provides evidence of the prevalence of wills and the principles underpinning the intended distribution of estates in Australia. Intentions around wealth transfers and the social norms that underpin them occur in the context of predicted extensive intergenerational transfers from the ageing baby boomer generation, policies of self provision and user pays for care in old age, broader views on what constitutes ‘family’, the increased importance of the not‐for‐profit sector in the delivery of services, and the related need for philanthropy. A national telephone survey conducted in 2012 with 2,405 respondents aged 18 and over shows that wills are predominantly used to distribute assets to partners and/or equally to immediate descendants. There is little evidence that will makers are recognising a wider group of relationships, obligations and entitlements outside the traditional nuclear family, or that wills are being replaced by other mechanisms of wealth transfer. Only a minority consider bequests to charities as important. These findings reflect current social norms about entitlements to ‘family’ money, a narrow view of what and who constitutes ‘family‘, limited obligation for testators to recompense individuals or organisations for care and support provided, and limited commitment to charitable organisations and civil society.     

Hybrid-based confidence intervals for the ratio of two treatment means in the over-dispersed Poisson data

In many clinical trials and epidemiological studies, comparing the mean count response of an exposed group to a control group is often of interest. This type of data is often over-dispersed with respect to Poisson variation, and previous studies usually compared groups using confidence intervals (CIs) of the difference between the two means. However, in some situations, especially when the means are small, interval estimation of the mean ratio (MR) is preferable. Moreover, Cox and Lewis [4 D.R. Cox and P.A.W. Lewis, The Statistical Analysis of Series of Events, Methuen, London, 1966.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]] pointed out many other situations where the MR is more relevant than the difference of means. In this paper, we consider CI construction for the ratio of means between two treatments for over-dispersed Poisson data. We develop several CIs for the situation by hybridizing two separate CIs for two individual means. Extensive simulations show that all hybrid-based CIs perform reasonably well in terms of coverage. However, the CIs based on the delta method using the logarithmic transformation perform better than other intervals in the sense that they have slightly shorter interval lengths and show better balance of tail errors. These proposed CIs are illustrated with three real data examples.     

This Harlem life: black families and everyday life in the 1920s and 1930s

This article uses Probation Department files to reconstruct the lives of five ordinary residents of Harlem. It highlights what that black metropolis offered those outside the political and cultural elite, who have dominated historical scholarship, showing how ordinary blacks negotiated the challenges of life in northern neighborhoods, and drew on institutions and organizations, to establish and sustain new lives. We offer the kind of individualized perspective on everyday life that other scholars have provided for high culture, but which does not exist for other realms of existence in Harlem, even in early twentieth century sociological studies of black life. Where scholars seeking to distinguish the neighborhood from a slum have pointed to the prevailing pride and self-confidence of its residents, this article directs attention to more immediate, concrete supports that sustained and enriched life in Harlem. Relationships with spouses, children, siblings and cousins sustained individuals faced with the social reality of living in overcrowded, deteriorating, disease infested housing, subject to the racism of white police, politicians and employers; so too did friendships made in nightclubs, speakeasies, dances and movie theatres, and membership of churches, fraternal organizations, social clubs, and sports clubs and teams.     

Determinants of Interoutsourcing: An Analytical Approach

Interoutsourcing is a round‐way process in which the vendor is its customer's customer and the customer is its vendor's vendor. While interoutsourcing is emerging as a prominent outsourcing strategy in many industries, there are no rigorous analytical studies focusing on this mechanism. In this article, we analytically demonstrate the efficacy of interoutsourcing by comparing it with normal outsourcing. Our results show that, compared with normal outsourcing, interoutsourcing acts as a self‐enforcer of vendor firms' behaviors toward increasing outsourcing service value. However, in situations where there is a mismatch of outsourcing activities, a high degree of incentive that is based on outsourcing service value, and a high cost of capital, interoutsourcing is not preferred to normal outsourcing. We discuss these results in detail and provide managerial implications for firms involved in interoutsourcing decisions.     

Reversible jump methods for generalised linear models and generalised linear mixed models

A reversible jump algorithm for Bayesian model determination among generalised linear models, under relatively diffuse prior distributions for the model parameters, is proposed. Orthogonal projections of the current linear predictor are used so that knowledge from the current model parameters is used to make effective proposals. This idea is generalised to moves of a reversible jump algorithm for model determination among generalised linear mixed models. Therefore, this algorithm exploits the full flexibility available in the reversible jump method. The algorithm is demonstrated via two examples and compared to existing methods.     

Exploring the Experiences of Lesbian,Gay, Bisexual,and Questioning Adolescents in Foster Care

This article is based on the findings from a subset of gender identity and sexual orientation questions from The Casey Field Office Mental Health Study (CFOMH). It aims to contribute the experiences of youth in the care of Casey Family Programs to the increasing body of research on lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, or questioning (LGBTQ) youth in foster care, as well as inform future studies in this area. The CFOMH study interviewed 188 adolescents ages 14 to 17 who were receiving foster care services from Casey Family Programs in 2006. The experiences in care of youth who identified as LGBQ (n = 10) are presented in narrative form, along with data from all youth in care (N = 188) regarding their perceptions of the foster care environment for LGBTQ youth. These findings are intended to underscore the need to conduct a larger, more in-depth study of the experiences of LGBTQ youth in foster care and the environment that foster care provides for them.     

Public Attitudes toward Partisan and Neutral Symbols in Post-Agreement Northern Ireland

Using original data from the Northern Ireland Life and Times survey, this article assesses public attitudes toward key issues of symbolism intimately connected with the Northern Ireland conflict and peace process. It uses public attitudes toward the symbolic expressions of Northern Ireland's politico-religious blocs as indicators of the extent of intercommunity tolerance in the delicate post-Belfast Agreement period. Survey questions on attitudes toward flags, including the idea of a new flag for Northern Ireland; loyalist and republican murals; and memorials to the dead of the conflict, including the idea of a memorial for all of the victims of the conflict, reveal that partisan attitudes toward communal symbols of identity and commemoration persist, despite macro-level political changes heralded by the 1998 peace accord. It is argued that the consociational design of the Belfast Agreement facilitates the perpetuation of the single-identity politics of Irish nationalism and Ulster unionism. In this context, public attachment to partisan symbols remains strong.