The multiregional matrix growth operator and the stable interregional age structure

Current population-forecasting efforts generally adopt minor variants of the cohort-survival projection method. This technique focuses on a population disaggregated into cohorts, a group of people having one or more common characteristics at a point in time and, by subjecting each cohort to class-specific rates of fertility, mortality, and net migration, generates a distribution of survivors and descendants of the original population, at successive intervals of time.Although cohort-survival methods take on a large number of variations, they all are essentially trend-based, dynamic, aspatial models of growth. The temporal element is introduced by a recursive structure which operates over a sequence of unit time intervals. The spatial dimension, when it is included at all, typically is accommodated by replicating the analysis over as many areal units as comprise the study area. Realistically, however, time and space need to be considered jointly in population-forecasting models. The need for interregional models which systematically introduce place-to-place movements and simultaneously consider the spatial as well as the temporal character of interrelated population processes is becoming increasingly apparent.Recently several demographers have taken advantage of the conceptual elegance and computational simplicity of matrix methods of population analysis. Their models, however, assume a "closed" population which is subject only to the processes of fertility and mortality. These, therefore, are not directly applicable to interregional "open" systems in which migration is frequently a much more variable and important contributor to population change than births or deaths. However, a natural extension of the demographer's matrix model allows one to incorporate place-to-place migration and provides an integrated interregional population-forecasting model which easily may be programmed for any of the current generation of digital computers. Such a model is outlined in this paper.     

Comparing mortality estimates based on different administrative records

This study investigates how age and race are reported in interviews and on death certificates and how these demographic assignments affect life expectancy estimates for the total population, for males and females, and for blacks and whites. Differential reporting of demographic characteristics can produce different estimated life expectancies and thus differential assessments of the sex and race gaps in life expectancy. This difference underscores the need to define demographic characteristics carefully and to examine multivariate models and projections cautiously.     

Educational Attainment and Mortality in the United States: Effects of Degrees,Years of Schooling,and Certification

Researchers have extensively documented a strong and consistent education gradient for mortality, with more highly educated individuals living longer than those with less education. This study contributes to our understanding of the education–mortality relationship by determining the effects of years of education and degree attainment on mortality, and by including non-degree certification, an important but understudied dimension of educational attainment. We use data from the mortality-linked restricted-use files of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) sample (N = 9821) and Cox proportional hazards models to estimate mortality risk among U.S. adults. Results indicate that more advanced degrees and additional years of education are associated with reduced mortality risk in separate models, but when included simultaneously, only degrees remain influential. Among individuals who have earned a high school diploma only, additional years of schooling (beyond 12) and vocational school certification (or similar accreditation) are both independently associated with reduced risks of death. Degrees appear to be most important for increasing longevity; the findings also suggest that any educational experience can be beneficial. Future research in health and mortality should consider including educational measures beyond a single variable for educational attainment.     

Wealth,Race, and Mortality*

Objective. We explore, first, whether wealth relates to mortality risk independent of income and education, and second, whether wealth closes the black‐white gap in U.S. adult mortality while controlling for other socioeconomic and sociodemographic factors. Methods. We employ the Cox proportional hazards models on data from the 1992 wave of the Health and Retirement Study linked to deaths through 1998, to analyze pre‐retirement adult mortality in the United States. Results. The findings suggest that broader measures of SES, including wealth, are significant for understanding adult mortality. Further, vastly lower asset holdings among blacks, compared to whites, not only affects their financial well‐being but also their survival prospects. Conclusions. Research and social policies that aim to understand and close health disparities in the United States may be poorly conceived if they ignore the impact of wealth on premature adult mortality.     

Associations Between Adolescents' Antisocial Behavior,Conflict Management Styles,and Romantic Relationship Breakup: An Observational Study

Adolescents' antisocial behavior and negative conflict management styles are each associated with adverse romantic relationship outcomes, yet little research exists on their associations. We investigated whether adolescents' antisocial behavior was associated with conflict management styles, and whether it predicted breakup 3 months later. In total, 91 adolescent couples (M_age = 16.43, SD = 0.99; 41.2% Hispanic/Latinx) participated in videotaped conflict discussions coded for negotiation, coercion, and avoidance. Actor–partner interdependence models suggest adolescents' antisocial behavior is associated with decreased use of negotiation (couple pattern) and increased use of coercion (actor pattern). No significant associations were found for avoidance. Neither antisocial behavior nor conflict management styles predicted breakup. Findings are discussed in light of the unique developmental importance of adolescents' romantic relationships.     

Inventory Positioning/Partitioning for Backorders Optimization for a Class of Multi-Echelon Inventory Problems*

Inventory management has undergone significant philosophical changes in recent decades such as the advent of the zero inventory concept. However, as attractive as the concept of minimal inventories may be, it is often unrealistic in application. Attention to basic features of inventory control systems such as order quantities, base stock levels, and reorder points remain crucial to ensure customer service at minimal cost. A nonlinear optimization model for determining base stock levels in a multi-echelon inventory network is presented. Lagrangian relaxation results in (1) newsboy-style relations that provide the optimal solutions, and (2) instantaneous shadow prices for the budget constraint. Sensitivity analysis of this model will facilitate making decisions concerning the desired investment in inventory for the entire system. This model may be solved on standard nonlinear programming software and is generalizable to problems in both production and distribution settings.