Analysis and evaluation of moderator effects in regression models: state of art, alternatives and empirical example

The identification and analysis of moderator relationships regularly confronts the empirical research with statistical and methodical challenges. Which misinterpretations and false conclusions result from different methodical procedures for the identification of moderator effects shall be demonstrated by means of the present contribution. Thereby, the moderated regression analysis represents the most popular procedure in this context.     

Cultural-Historical Activity Theory and Cultural Community Psychology: The Potential for Greater Commonality

Greater commonality for Cultural-Community Psychology (CC) and cultural-historical activity theory (CHAT) is advocated. The potential for greater commonality is exemplified by a series of examples of the many researchers who now use concepts from both CC and CHAT, including our own career work in culture studies, community development, delinquency, and education. A centering whorl of science is observable in the density of intersections across fields, and research on common propositions, such as the current intersections of intersubjectivity and joint activity, as studied by CC, CHAT, cognitive science, psychoneurology, and intervention theories. Therein exists the promise of a new center of commonality in psychology.     

Falling Short of Highest Life Expectancy: How Many Americans Might Have Been Alive in the Twentieth Century?

Life expectancy at birth in the United States during the twentieth century was lower than in many other highly developed countries. We investigate how this mortality disadvantage in the last 100 years translates into the number of hypothetical lives lost and their sex and age structure. We estimate the hypothetical US population if it had experienced in each decade since 1900 the mortality level of the country with the then highest life expectancy and compare the results to the actual figures in 2000. By 2000, the number of additional people who could have been alive had the mortality levels in the United States been as low as those in countries with the highest life expectancy was 66 million. This number is distributed equally between males and females. Suboptimal mortality at reproductive ages is crucial for the cumulative effect of potential lives lost, resulting from premature deaths of women who could still become first‐time mothers or bear additional children. Out of the 66 million additional persons who could have been alive in 2000, 45 million are attributable to those indirect deaths. Although the differences in the composition of the population by sex and age under the two mortality regimes are minor, the majority of people who might have been alive—54 million—were of working age or younger.     

Reforming social security for a long-life society: What impact on women?

As the populations of industrialized countries become progressively older, it becomes increasing apparent that traditional social security systems will have to be modified. This has sparked many questions about the future of social security systems. How can social security adapt to chaning family structures and the expected increase in retirees in a way not discriminating between men and women? to what extent will policy interventions impact differently on men and women? What is “fair” in terms of future pension contributions and benefits? This article attempts to address these questions. It reviews the main policy reforms countries have undertaken to address the long-life society challenge, considers the gender impact of such reforms and identifies the key questions policy-makers need to grapple with in ensuring fairness of outcome for men and women.     

Lorenz Dominance and Non-welfaristic Redistribution

Our concern is for income inequalities that may result from non-welfaristic redistribution schemes. We show that for large classes of income functions Lorenz dominance results can be found in the comparison of two egalitarian equivalent mechanisms. Comparisons of different conditionally egalitarian mechanisms only yield poverty dominance results. In general, no egalitarian equivalent mechanism can be Lorenz dominated by a conditionally egalitarian mechanism. Our analysis stresses the need for accurate empirical estimates of the pre-tax income function and of the distributions of responsibility and compensation characteristics. We thank the Editor, Marc Fleurbaey and two anonymous referees, Geert Dhaene and seminar/conference participants at UAP-workshop (Namur, 2003), ‘Welfarist and non-welfarist approaches to public economics’ (Ghent, 2004), SED (Palma, 2004), SSC&W (Osaka, 2004) and IIPF (Milan, 2004) for helpful comments and suggestions. Financial support from the Federal Public Planning Service Science Policy, Interuniversity Attraction Poles Program – Belgian Science Policy [Contract No. P5/21] is gratefully acknowledged.     

Social indicators of racial parity

Using the U.S. Census' Social Indicators III (73 indicators) and the OECD List of Social Indicators (33 indicators), a modified Delphi panel was surveyed in two rounds to rank 106 items and 19 “areas of major social concerns” as to how “essential” or “unnecessary” each indicator was in measuring racial parity in the U.S. A hypothesis about how much consensus was reached overall between the first- and second-round responses and hypotheses about comparative views among Academics, minority Advocates and Government researchers-administrators were tested (See Table I). From the second-round returns, the top 15 indicators (selected by the panel) and the 19 major areas of social concerns were analyzed. Secondary data were gathered and built into a Dissimilarity Index. Comparisons were analyzed statistically in increments of 5 indicators (quintiles), and overall to determine how much parity, or equality, between Afro-Americans and Whites had been obtained between the “early 1980s” and the “early 1990s”.     

Lobbying bei der Rechnungslegungsstandardsetzung. Ein Literaturüberblick

Research into the impact of lobbying on accounting standard setting has a decades-old tradition in international accounting research. Due to the changes brought about by the European Union’s IAS regulation as well as the application of new research methods this research topic has recently gained renewed relevance. The present article surveys the empirical literature on lobbying the accounting standard setter in Anglo-Saxon countries, discusses the transferability of this literature’s results to the new situation in the European Union and offers a perspective on current research topics.     

Long-Run Identification in a Fractionally Integrated System

We propose an extension of structural fractionally integrated vector autoregressive models that avoids certain undesirable effects on the impulse responses that occur if long-run identification restrictions are imposed. We derive the model’s Granger representation and investigate the effects of long-run restrictions. Simulations illustrate that enforcing integer integration orders can have severe consequences for impulse responses. In a system of U.S. real output and aggregate prices, the effects of structural shocks strongly depend on the specification of the integration orders. In the statistically preferred fractional model, shocks that are typically interpreted as demand disturbances have a very brief influence on GDP. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

Flexible Latent‐State Modelling of Old Faithful's Eruption Inter‐Arrival Times in 2009

This paper is concerned with the analysis of a time series comprising the eruption inter‐arrival times of the Old Faithful geyser in 2009. The series is much longer than other well‐documented ones and thus gives a more comprehensive insight into the dynamics of the geyser. Basic hidden Markov models with gamma state‐dependent distributions and several extensions are implemented. In order to better capture the stochastic dynamics exhibited by Old Faithful, the different non‐standard models under consideration seek to increase the flexibility of the basic models in various ways: (i) by allowing non‐geometric distributions for the times spent in the different states; (ii) by increasing the memory of the underlying Markov chain, with or without assuming additional structure implied by mixture transition distribution models; and (iii) by incorporating feedback from the observation process on the latent process. In each case it is shown how the likelihood can be formulated as a matrix product which can be conveniently maximized numerically.