Secular declines in the association between obesity and mortality in the United States

Recent research suggests that rising obesity will restrain future gains in US life expectancy and that obesity is an important contributor to the current shortfall in us longevity compared to other high-income countries. Estimates of the contribution of obesity to current and future national-level mortality patterns are sensitive to estimates of the magnitude of the association between obesity and mortality at the individual level. We assessed secular trends in the obesity/mortality association among cohorts of middle-aged adults between 1948 and 2006 using three long-running US data sources: the Framingham Heart Study, the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, and the National Health Interview Survey. We find substantial declines over time in the magnitude of the association between obesity and overall mortality and, in certain instances, cardiovascular-specific mortality. We conclude that estimates of the contribution of obesity to current national-level mortality patterns should take into account recent reductions in the magnitude of the obesity and mortality association.     

Culturally specific treatment for partner-abusive Latino men: a qualitative study to identify and implement program components

Research based on a demographic survey and qualitative interviews of Latino intimate partner violence perpetrators in Southern California forms the basis of a Spanish-language treatment program designed to be culturally appropriate for Latino immigrant men, and piloted for 4 years with their input. Culturally-specific topics emphasized by participants and integrated into the program are: effective parenting skills for men; gender roles; discussion of discrimination towards immigrants and women; immigration and changing gender roles; marital sexual abuse; and spirituality as related to violence prevention. Attention is given to alcohol abuse and childhood trauma. Results suggest the desirability of an empathic and culturally-sensitive approach, without diminishing responsibility. This program was designed to help clinicians refine their skills and effectiveness in working with this rapidly expanding population.     

Some applications of nonlinear and non-Gaussian state–space modelling by means of hidden Markov models

Nonlinear and non-Gaussian state–space models (SSMs) are fitted to different types of time series. The applications include homogeneous and seasonal time series, in particular earthquake counts, polio counts, rainfall occurrence data, glacial varve data and daily returns on a share. The considered SSMs comprise Poisson, Bernoulli, gamma and Student-t distributions at the observation level. Parameter estimations for the SSMs are carried out using a likelihood approximation that is obtained after discretization of the state space. The approximation can be made arbitrarily accurate, and the approximated likelihood is precisely that of a finite-state hidden Markov model (HMM). The proposed method enables us to apply standard HMM techniques. It is easy to implement and can be extended to all kinds of SSMs in a straightforward manner.     

Robust nonparametric tests for the two-sample location problem

We construct and investigate robust nonparametric tests for the two-sample location problem. A test based on a suitable scaling of the median of the set of differences between the two samples, which is the Hodges-Lehmann shift estimator corresponding to the Wilcoxon two-sample rank test, leads to higher robustness against outliers than the Wilcoxon test itself, while preserving its efficiency under a broad range of distributions. The good performance of the constructed test is investigated under different distributions and outlier configurations and compared to alternatives like the two-sample t-, the Wilcoxon and the median test, as well as to tests based on the difference of the sample medians or the one-sample Hodges-Lehmann estimators.     

Inference in hybrid Bayesian networks using dynamic discretization

We consider approximate inference in hybrid Bayesian Networks (BNs) and present a new iterative algorithm that efficiently combines dynamic discretization with robust propagation algorithms on junction trees. Our approach offers a significant extension to Bayesian Network theory and practice by offering a flexible way of modeling continuous nodes in BNs conditioned on complex configurations of evidence and intermixed with discrete nodes as both parents and children of continuous nodes. Our algorithm is implemented in a commercial Bayesian Network software package, AgenaRisk, which allows model construction and testing to be carried out easily. The results from the empirical trials clearly show how our software can deal effectively with different type of hybrid models containing elements of expert judgment as well as statistical inference. In particular, we show how the rapid convergence of the algorithm towards zones of high probability density, make robust inference analysis possible even in situations where, due to the lack of information in both prior and data, robust sampling becomes unfeasible.     

Comparison of multiple imputation and two-phase logistic regression to analyse two-phase case–control studies with rich phase 1: a simulation study

Two-phase case–control studies cope with the problem of confounding by obtaining required additional information for a subset (phase 2) of all individuals (phase 1). Nowadays, studies with rich phase 1 data are available where only few unmeasured confounders need to be obtained in phase 2. The extended conditional maximum likelihood (ECML) approach in two-phase logistic regression is a novel method to analyse such data. Alternatively, two-phase case–control studies can be analysed by multiple imputation (MI), where phase 2 information for individuals included in phase 1 is treated as missing. We conducted a simulation of two-phase studies, where we compared the performance of ECML and MI in typical scenarios with rich phase 1. Regarding exposure effect, MI was less biased and more precise than ECML. Furthermore, ECML was sensitive against misspecification of the participation model. We therefore recommend MI to analyse two-phase case–control studies in situations with rich phase 1 data.     

The place of “think family” approaches in child and family social work: Messages from a process evaluation of an English pathfinder service

Findings are reported from a process study of an English multi-disciplinary team working with families with long standing and complex problems. The approaches and methods of the team are described and placed in the context of UK policy developments and of UK and USA research on professional practice with families facing multiple difficulties. Basic data are provided on all families referred in the first year and analysed with respect to the first 100 completed cases. A broadly ethnographic research approach is used for the observational study of the team interactions and decision-making on individual cases. For a one-third sub-sample of 33 cases, process and interim outcome data are analysed from information systematically extracted from case records. These are complemented by qualitative data from interviews with managers and caseworkers and by observation of ‘team around the family’ and professionals' meetings. The researchers conclude that the service succeeds in engaging a majority of the referred families who have been hard to reach or hard to change in the past and whose children are either ‘on the edge of care’ or likely to be significantly harmed without the provision of an intensive service. The researchers concluded that improvements were made in the life chances of children in 75% of the families. Aspects of the service identified as associated with more positive outcomes are: the allocation of two key workers (one for the child/ren and one for the parent/s); the centrality of relationship-based practice and flexibility of the approach rather than strict adherence to any particular practice model; the fact that the service is firmly embedded within the statutory children's services department, allowing for continuity of relationships with team around the family members when the intensive service ends; and flexibility about case duration and intensity.     

The Influence of Gaming Expenditure on Crime Rates in South Australia: A Local Area Empirical Investigation

Although there has been much speculation about the possible links between gambling and crime rates, relevant quantitative evidence has been practically non-existent in Australia to date. This paper reports the results of research that utilised a model designed to investigate the potential relationship between electronic gaming machine expenditures and property (income-generating) crime rates reported to police in local areas in South Australia in 2002–2003. The research found that the higher the expenditures on gaming machines in a particular local area per adult, the higher the income-generating crime rate in that area. No such relationship was found between gaming machine expenditure and non-income-generating crime rates. However, further research is required before any policy-relevant conclusions can be drawn.