The Cost of High Unemployment

In response to R. A. B. Leaper's challenge in the last issue of this journal we present a report which we have just prepared for the BBC North-East. We believe that a better understanding of the costs of high unemployment to the country is needed to inform decisions on how much we can afford to pay to tackle the problem. In the final section of the paper we show how this evidence can be of value in costing policy options.
The last detailed costings of unemployment were published in 1982 for the financial year 1981/82. In February 1982 it appears that a political decision was taken not to publish the latest Treasury estimate updating their 1981 calculations. Since then numerous parliamentary questions on the subject have received very limited answers disputing the validity of the whole exercise.     

Why is Six Sigma so successful?

There can be little doubt that Motorola, General Electric, Black and Decker, Allied Signal (now Honeywell), ABB and Bombardier, have achieved impressive business performance in recent years. Their annual reports document this success. Furthermore, in several cases, the Annual Report clearly attributes this success to having followed a Six Sigma strategy. Not surprisingly, many other companies wish to learn what Six Sigma can do for them, and their first question is 'What exactly is Six Sigma?'. Unfortunately it is rather difficult, if not impossible, to define Six Sigma in one or two sentences. This paper identifies the essential elements of Six Sigma. Some are obvious, such as the extensive use of statistical techniques by employees known as Blackbelts. However, other more subtle, but very important, features of Six Sigma are concealed within the business culture of these successful companies. It is clear to those who have participated in this success, that any company embarking on Six Sigma will not succeed if it focuses on statistics whilst failing to develop a supporting culture.     

Social work in mental health services: A survey of the field

Abstract

A survey of social workers employed in mental health services was conducted in Victoria in mid-1997. Approximately 300 social workers were identified as working in the sector. About half were employed in adult clinical services, 23% in psychiatric disability services, 12.4% in Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services, and the rest in a range of other services. More than 90% worked in a community based service or team. The number of entry-level (SW I) positions in clinical services was found to have declined over the last ten years from 61 to 14, resulting in a lack of opportunities for social workers to gain experience in base grade positions, and difficulty in recruiting to SW II positions. Major issues of concern reported by social workers included: the lack of accommodation and other community resources for consumers; diminished opportunities for professional development, supervision, and discipline-specific training; lack of professional recognition; increasing workloads; and organisational emphasis on throughput rather than quality.     

A Tale of Two Counties: Natives’ Opinions Toward Immigration in North Carolina1

This article compares native residents’ opinions and perceptions regarding immigration using a representative survey from a pair of matched North Carolina counties – one that experienced recent growth of its foreign-born population and one that did not. Drawing from several theoretical perspectives, including group threat, contact theory, and symbolic politics, we formulate and empirically evaluate several hypotheses. Results provide limited evidence that competition and threat influence formation of opinions about immigration, with modest support for claims that parents with school-aged children harbor more negative views of immigration than their childless counterparts. Except for residents in precarious economic situations, these negative opinions appear unrelated to the immigrant composition of the community. Claims that the media promotes negative views of immigration receive limited support, but this relationship is unrelated to the volume of local immigration. Finally, sustained contacts with foreign-born residents outside work environments are associated with positive views of immigration, but superficial contacts appear to be conducive to anti-immigration sentiments. Political orientation, educational attainment, and indicators of respondents’ tolerance for diversity explain most of the difference between the two counties in overall support for immigration.     

Non-Gaussian Ornstein–Uhlenbeck-based models and some of their uses in financial economics

Non-Gaussian processes of Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (OU) type offer the possibility of capturing important distributional deviations from Gaussianity and for flexible modelling of dependence structures. This paper develops this potential, drawing on and extending powerful results from probability theory for applications in statistical analysis. Their power is illustrated by a sustained application of OU processes within the context of finance and econometrics. We construct continuous time stochastic volatility models for financial assets where the volatility processes are superpositions of positive OU processes, and we study these models in relation to financial data and theory.     

A general method of constructing E(s2)-optimal supersaturated designs

There has been much recent interest in supersaturated designs and their application in factor screening experiments. Supersaturated designs have mainly been constructed by using the E ( s ²)-optimality criterion originally proposed by Booth and Cox in 1962. However, until now E ( s ²)-optimal designs have only been established with certainty for n experimental runs when the number of factors m is a multiple of n-1 , and in adjacent cases where m = q ( n -1) + r (| r | 2, q an integer). A method of constructing E ( s ²)-optimal designs is presented which allows a reasonably complete solution to be found for various numbers of runs n including n ,=8 12, 16, 20, 24, 32, 40, 48, 64.     

DEMAND/WITHDRAW INTERACTION PATTERNS BETWEEN DIFFERENT TYPES OF BATTERERS AND THEIR SPOUSES

The investigation of subtypes of violent men could provide invaluable information to researchers and clinicians. In earlier studies, investigators examined whether subtypes of male batterers could be identified based on physiological markers in combination with observational and self-report perspectives. In a sample of batterers and their wives, they found a physiological marker that discriminated between two groups of violent men on several interesting dimensions. To highlight the importance of studying batterer typologies, the present study examined differences in marital interaction patterns across the two groups of batterers. Analyses revealed clinically relevant patterns of interaction in the two groups, and effect sizes indicating the possibility of differences between the two types of batterers. Implications for future research as well as therapy are discussed.     

The peculiar shrinkage properties of partial least squares regression

Partial least squares regression has been widely adopted within some areas as a useful alternative to ordinary least squares regression in the manner of other shrinkage methods such as principal components regression and ridge regression. In this paper we examine the nature of this shrinkage and demonstrate that partial least squares regression exhibits some undesirable properties.     

Crime,antisocial personality and pathological gambling

To investigate the hypothesized causal relationship between pathological gambling and gambling-related illegal behaviors, 77 patients seeking behavioral treatment for excessive gambling and 32 members of Gamblers Anonymous were administered a structured interview schedule. Data on the incidence, nature and extent of both gambling and non-gambling related illegal behaviors was obtained and DSM-III (A.P.A., 1980) criteria for Antisocial personality were used as the measure of sociopathy.Of the sample, 54.1% admitted to a gambling related offense and 21.1% were charged. Results showed that 14.6% met DSM-III criteria for Antisocial Personality, Four subgroups were subsequently identified; gamblers who committed no offense (36.7%), gambling only offenses (40.4%), non-gambling only offenses (9.2%) or both gambling and non-gambling offenses (13.7%). Significantly more subjects from the gambling plus non-gambling related offenses subgroup were classified as antisocial personalities.Of pathological gamblers who committed offenses, two thirds reportedly did so as a direct consequence of gambling induced problems. Subjects reporting gambling-only related offenses showed a significant increase in antisocial features after adolescence suggesting that antisocial features emerge as a secondary phenomenon to pathological gambling behavior patterns.Acknowledgments: This study was made possible by a grant from the Criminology Research Council, Australian Institute of Criminology.