Lifespan Disparity as an Additional Indicator for Evaluating Mortality Forecasts

Evaluating the predictive ability of mortality forecasts is important yet difficult. Death rates and mean lifespan are basic life table functions typically used to analyze to what extent the forecasts deviate from their realized values. Although these parameters are useful for specifying precisely how mortality has been forecasted, they cannot be used to assess whether the underlying mortality developments are plausible. We therefore propose that in addition to looking at average lifespan, we should examine whether the forecasted variability of the age at death is a plausible continuation of past trends. The validation of mortality forecasts for Italy, Japan, and Denmark demonstrates that their predictive performance can be evaluated more comprehensively by analyzing both the average lifespan and lifespan disparity—that is, by jointly analyzing the mean and the dispersion of mortality. Approaches that account for dynamic age shifts in survival improvements appear to perform better than others that enforce relatively invariant patterns. However, because forecasting approaches are designed to capture trends in average mortality, we argue that studying lifespan disparity may also help to improve the methodology and thus the predictive ability of mortality forecasts.     

The heterogeneity of ethnic employment gaps

This paper investigates the heterogeneity of ethnic employment gaps using a new single-index based approach. Instead of stratifying our sample by age or education, we study ethnic employment gaps along a continuous measure of employability, the employment probability minority workers would have if their characteristics were priced as in the majority group. We apply this method to French males, comparing those whose parents are North African immigrants and those with native parents. We find that both the raw and the unexplained ethnic employment differentials are larger for low-employability workers than for high-employability ones. We show in a theoretical framework that this heterogeneity can be accounted for by homogeneous underlying mechanisms and is not evidence for, say, heterogeneous discrimination. Finally, we discuss our main empirical findings in the light of simple taste-based vs. statistical discrimination models.     

Continued Reductions in Mortality at Advanced Ages

Mortality data for 30 mostly developed countries available in the Kannisto–Thatcher Database on Old‐Age Mortality (KTDB) are drawn on to assess the pace of decline in death rates at ages 80 years and above. As of 2004 this database recorded 37 million persons at these ages, including 130,000 centenarians (more than double the number in 1990). For men, the probability of surviving from age 80 to age 90 has risen from 12 percent in 1950 to 26 percent in 2002; for women, the increase has been from 16 percent to 38 percent. In the lowest‐mortality country, Japan, life expectancy at age 80 in 2006 is estimated to be 6.5 years for men and 11.3 years for women. For selected countries, average annual percent declines in age‐specific death rates over the preceding ten years are calculated for single‐year age groups 80 to 99 and the years 1970 to 2004. The results are presented in Lexis maps showing the patterns of change in old‐age mortality by cohort and period, and separately for men and women. The trends are not favorable in all countries: for example, old‐age mortality in the United States has stagnated since 1980. But countries with exceptionally low mortality, like Japan and France, do not show a deceleration in death rate declines. It is argued that life expectancy at advanced ages may continue to increase at the same pace as in the past.     

Fourier methods for analyzing piecewise constant volatilities

AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis - We develop procedures for testing whether a sequence of independent random variables has constant variance. If this is fulfilled, the modulus of a...     

Subsidiarity and social citizenship: Social assistance schemes in Austria,Belgium, Switzerland and Norway

Previous research has emphasised that conditionality impinges on social citizenship. However, a systematic assessment examining the impact of functional and territorial subsidiarity has been overlooked. Developing seven operational criteria – rights, means testing, conditionality, voice and choice, discretion, benefit's adequacy and supplementary system – we determined levels of subsidiarity and social citizenship in social assistance schemes. Analysing the benefit reform trajectories of Austria, Belgium, Norway and Switzerland, we conclude that social assistance schemes have not improved. Low benefits, means testing and work linkage have strengthened functional subsidiarity, whereas questions of voice and choice are rarely on the agenda. Caseworkers’ discretion and local administration have sustained territorial subsidiarity. Therefore, considering the potential role that benefits could play in the welfare state, low up‐take minimises the redistributive potential and, in general, risk has substantially shifted towards social assistance.     

Why do Europeans Migrate to Berlin? Social‐Structural Differences for Italian,British, French and Polish Nationals in the Period between 1980 and 2002*

One of the main issues in migration research concerns the reasons migrants have for crossing borders. It is assumed in the research that migration is primarily economically driven. In recent studies, however, the importance of social and cultural reasons for migration has become apparent. In this context, the present contribution discusses the reasons for the migration of Europeans from Italy, France, the United Kingdom, and Poland who moved to Germany (Berlin) between 1980 and 2002. In this case, it can be shown empirically that purely economic reasons play a lesser role in migration than is generally assumed, whereas social and cultural motives actually have a much greater influence. Primary data gathered in Berlin early in 2002 form the empirical foundation of the study. Multinomial logistic regressions are used to discuss the function of social‐structural differences (e.g., nationality, age, gender, education, social origin) in the formation of individual reasons for migration.     

Crossing Boundaries: Internal,Regional and International Migration in Cameroon

Internal and international migration increasingly continues to be of global importance for development policies and programmes, but the dearth of data on migration for African countries and the limited focus on the structural conditions that motivate migration from specific localities within the region remain glaring. In this study, we examine the patterns and drivers of migration in Cameroon, focusing on the dynamics of rural–urban migration, migrant circulation, regional economic migrants and refugees, international migration, brain drain and returns from emigration. Consequent upon regional conflicts and instability, we highlight the refugee problem in Cameroon and significant challenges in addressing it. Finally, we underscore the policy and research challenges necessary to harness the potentials of internal and international migration for national development.     

On the equilibrium of voting games with abstention and several levels of approval

We study the core of “(j, k) simple games”, where voters choose one level of approval from among j possible levels, partitioning the society into j coalitions, and each possible partition facing k levels of approval in the output (Freixas and Zwicker in Soc Choice Welf 21:399–431, 2003). We consider the case of (j, 2) simple games, including voting games in which each voter may cast a “yes” or “no” vote, or abstain (j = 3). A necessary and sufficient condition for the non-emptiness of the core of such games is provided, with an important application to weighted symmetric (j, 2) simple games. These results generalize the literature, and provide a characterization of constitutions under which a society would allow a given number of candidates to compete for leadership without running the risk of political instability. We apply these results to well-known voting systems and social choice institutions including the relative majority rule, the two-thirds relative majority rule, the United States Senate, and the United Nations Security Council.