The Role of Scientific Expertise in COVID-19 Policy-making: Evidence from Four European Countries

Public Organization Review - Immense uncertainty and the need for drastic interventions cause politicians to rely heavily on scientific advice for underpinning or legitimating their COVID-19...     

An Empirical Test of the Strategic-Grid Model of Information Systems Planning*

Contingency models of information systems planning predict that no single planning approach will suit all organizations' needs. Little empirical research has been undertaken, however, to evaluate this prediction. Accordingly, we used McFarlan, McKenney, and Pyburn's (1983) strategic-grid model to study the information systems planning problems encountered by 49 governmental agencies. Twenty-seven agencies were required to follow a planning approach best suited to organizations that had a high level of dependence on both their existing and proposed systems. We predicted that agencies not having these characteristics would encounter the most problems with the approach. The remaining 22 agencies could choose their own planning approach. We studied this latter group to determine whether the problems encountered by the first group could be attributed to the mandated approach. Overall, the empirical results obtained were equivocal. Some results indicated that more planning problems were encountered by agencies in which the mandated approach was not appropriate to their position in the strategic grid. Other results were not supportive of this proposition. More work needs to be undertaken, therefore, to evaluate the predictive and explanatory power of contingency models of information systems planning. In addition, our research indicates a need to develop more rigorous theories of information systems planning behaviors, to improve the instruments needed to measure these behaviors, to explore the relationship between information systems planning behaviours and organizational effectiveness, to investigate how organizational learning impacts planning behaviors, and to determine the types of information systems planning problems that diffuse through organizations and those that remain localized.     

Cross-country risk quantification of extreme wildfires in Mediterranean Europe

We estimate the country-level risk of extreme wildfires defined by burned area (BA) for Mediterranean Europe and carry out a cross-country comparison. To this end, we avail of the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) geospatial data from 2006 to 2019 to perform an extreme value analysis. More specifically, we apply a point process characterization of wildfire extremes using maximum likelihood estimation. By modeling covariates, we also evaluate potential trends and correlations with commonly known factors that drive or affect wildfire occurrence, such as the Fire Weather Index as a proxy for meteorological conditions, population density, land cover type, and seasonality. We find that the highest risk of extreme wildfires is in Portugal (PT), followed by Greece (GR), Spain (ES), and Italy (IT) with a 10-year BA return level of 50'338 ha, 33'242 ha, 25'165 ha, and 8'966 ha, respectively. Coupling our results with existing estimates of the monetary impact of large wildfires suggests expected losses of 162–439 million € (PT), 81–219 million € (ES), 41–290 million € (GR), and 18–78 million € (IT) for such 10-year return period events.

SUMMARY

We model the risk of extreme wildfires for Italy, Greece, Portugal, and Spain in form of burned area return levels, compare them, and estimate expected losses.     

An Explanation of the Occupational Structure of Sectors of Industry

Abstract. This study has been carried out by the Research Centre for Education and Labour Market (ROA) as part of a long-range research project commissioned by the Ministry of Education and Sciences. The objective of the project is to develop an education/labour-market information system to help secondary and university students choose the right type of school and/or occupation (ROA 1988). The study reported on here sets out to disclose the factors underlying the development of the occupational pattern. The shares of occupational classes in each economic sector are taken as points of departure. The explanatory variables are technological progress and cyclical and structural sectoral developments. For each occupational class, an estimation is made with the help of a linear model, the estimation method being that of Weighted Least Squares. To permit several variables to be included in the equation, the data have been pooled over sectors and time. In two fifths of all cases, a model with explanatory variables has been chosen; in the remaining instances a sector-dummy model was found to suffice.     

DO SUBSIDIES INCREASE CHARITABLE GIVING IN THE LONG RUN? MATCHING DONATIONS IN A FIELD EXPERIMENT

Subsidizing charitable giving—for example, for victims of natural disasters—is very popular, not only with governments but also with private organizations. Many companies match their employees' charitable contributions, hoping that this will foster the willingness to contribute. However, systematic analyses of the effect of such a matching mechanism are still lacking. This article tests the effect of matching charitable giving in a randomized field experiment in the short and the long run. The donations of a randomly selected group were matched by contributions from an anonymous donor. The results support the hypothesis that a matching mechanism increases contributions to a public good. However, in the periods after the experiment, when matching donations have been stopped, the contribution rate declines for the treatment group. The matching mechanism leads to a negative net effect on the participation rate. The field experiment therefore provides evidence suggesting that the willingness to contribute may be undermined by a matching mechanism in the long run. (JEL: C93, D64, H00)