Bayesian Modeling of Initiating Event Frequencies at Nuclear Power Plants1

Probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) of nuclear power plants proceed by modeling potential accident sequences at the plant of interest. These hypothesized accident sequences begin with initiating events. A very important initiating event phenomenon is the loss of off-site power (LOSP). This is the interruption of the preferred power supply to the essential and nonessential switchgear buses resulting in the use of emergency power supplies. If off-site power is not restored in a reasonable period of time, emergency backup sources of AC and DC power may subsequently fail, resulting in a possible core meltdown. Industry data show 63 LOSP incidents in the operating history of nuclear plants in the United States. Two Bayesian models for the frequency of incidents of LOSP are presented. One model assumes that all nuclear power generating stations share a common incidence rate for LOSP, and a posterior distribution is found for the mean incidence rate for all plants. The second model assumes that the incidence rates for individual plants belong to a superpopulation of incidence rates. Under this model the incidence rate for each plant is unique, but related to the incident rate of all other plants through the superpopulation. These models provide a vehicle for incorporating initiating event uncertainty into PRAs.     

Between Society,politics and the market: The structure and future of Social Scientific research against the background of the process of Internationalization

The present article looks at the challenge posed by the process of internationalization for the social sciences and examines the structural constraints on the development of adequate comparative social‐scientific research. The comparative advantages and disadvantages of universities, consultants and the professionalized research sector respectively are discussed. A model of networking is proposed as one that entails the main potential for development in this direction.     

DEVELOPING A PERSONAL INTEGRATION IN FAMILY THERAPY: PRINCIPLES FOR MODEL CONSTRUCTION AND PRACTICE

This paper sets forth generic guidelines for the clinician to observe in building and practicing a personal integrative method in family therapy. Principles are articulated around five foci: (a) the need for a personal paradigm, (b) the assimilation of aspects of scholastic approaches, (c) the role of the person of the therapist, (d) the adaptation of the model to specific cases, and (e) the pathways toward the development of a personal integrative model. An informed view of integrative practice is emphasized, in which a theoretical base is created, strategies and techniques are related to this paradigm, and the treatment of specific cases is linked to the general model.     

Wage determination in U.S. manufacturing 1958–1976: A collective bargaining approach

This paper presents a cross-section collective bargaining approach to the analysis of inter-industry wage movements of production workers in U.S. manufacturing over the period 1958–1976. A Hicksian model is used to classify the determinants of wage change according to their likely influence on the concession and strike costs of management and unions. Three variables which are classified as management concession and strike costs are consistently significant in empirical testing: change in value productivity, labor intensity, and the profit rate. On the basis of this finding it is suggested that inter-industry wage changes are generally a function of management concession costs. The authors acknowledge the helpful comments of an anonymous referee.     

MONEY SUPPLY VARIABILITY IN A MACRO MODEL OF MONOPOLISTIC COMPETITION

The effects of changes in money supply variability are examined for a macro model of monopolistic competition. Increases in money supply variability raise demand uncertainty causing individual firms to produce more for inventory. In addition, expected profits decrease, inducing a number of firms to leave the economy. Aggregate income then falls in spite of an increase in firm-level production. The result on aggregate income is standard, but the results on inventories and the number of firms in the economy distinguish this monopolistic macro model empirically from conventional macro models when changes in money supply variability occur.     

THE SOCIAL AND COGNITIVE STRUCTURE OF LEGAL DECISION-MAKING

This conceptual article uses an interpretive approach to legal decision-making to explain the operation of crime stereotypes in the courts. A model is proposed to address the social psychological dynamics involved in assessing both conforming and exceptional cases. Evaluated against the backdrop of prevailing stereotypes, conforming cases may be disposed of routinely, while exceptional cases present cognitive dilemmas for court actors. In that stereotypes are internalized as enduring mental structures, the latters' dispositions require a more probing search for an explanation of the crime than is necessary with more typical offenses. Legal decisions in exceptional cases are influenced by the meaning court actors attribute to the offense within the context of the offender's alternative (i.e., noncriminal) social statuses. A series of interrelated propositions based on these arguments is formulated.