Economic Satisfaction vs. Moral Conservatism in the 1988 Presidential Election

Abstract

Residents from “Middletown” who were going to vote in the 1988 presidential election were interviewed concerning their various economic and moral positions. The results showed that satisfaction with the economic situation in the fall of 1988 was much more important than moral conservatism in Bush's election win. An extended analysis on how economic satisfaction could influence vote was presented.     

Bayesian Point Estimation Using the Predictive Distribution

There is considerable question about how a Bayesian might provide a point estimate for a parameter when no loss function is specified. The mean, median, and mode of the posterior distribution have all been suggested. This article considers a natural Bayesian estimator based on the predictive distribution of future observations. It is shown that for the set of parameters that admit an unbiased estimate, this predictive estimate coincides with the posterior mean of the parameter. It is argued that this result provides some justification for use of the posterior mean as a Bayesian point estimate when there is no loss structure.     

Social Environmental Variation, Plasticity Genes, and Aggression: Evidence for the Differential Susceptibility Hypothesis

Although G×E studies are typically based on the assumption that some individuals possess genetic variants that enhance their vulnerability to environmental adversity, the differential susceptibility perspective posits that these individuals are simply more susceptible to environmental influence than others. An important implication of this model is that those persons most vulnerable to adverse social environments are the same ones who reap the most benefit from environmental support. The present study tested several implications of this proposition. Using longitudinal data from a sample of several hundred African Americans, we found that relatively common variants of the dopamine receptor gene and the serotonin transporter gene interact with social environmental conditions to predict aggression in a manner consonant with differential susceptibility. When the social environment was adverse, individuals with these genetic variants manifested more aggression than other genotypes, whereas when the environment was supportive they demonstrated less aggression than other genotypes. Further, we found that these genetic variants interact with environmental conditions to foster various cognitive schemas and emotions in a manner consistent with differential susceptibility and that a latent construct formed by these schemas and emotions mediated the effect of gene by environment interaction on aggression.     

The Influence of Weather Conditions on the Relative Incident Rate of Fishing Vessels

There is a long history of studying the relationship between weather and maritime activities. This article analyzes the link between relative incident rate (RIR) and general weather factors within certain gridded areas and time periods. The study area, which encompasses a broad extent of Atlantic Canadian waters, includes fishing incidents recorded by the Canadian Coast Guard from 1997 to 1999. Methodologies used for traffic track generation in a geographical information system and aggregation of all relevant weather data needed for the statistical analyses are presented. Ultimately, a regression tree was built to illustrate the relationship between incident rate and the following six weather factors: wave height; sea surface temperature; air temperature; ice concentration; fog presence; and precipitation. Results from the regression tree reveal that the RIR defined as (incident number per area-day)/(traffic amount per area-day) across grid cells with incidents, increases as the weather conditions deteriorate in a general way, and the concentration of ice has the biggest influence on the magnitude of incident rates for a given level of traffic exposure. The results from this analysis may assist administrators of maritime traffic, especially those associated with fishing activities, through a better understanding of the influence on RIR of certain weather conditions within given areas in specific time periods.     

Commentary on Studying Circular Questioning “In Situ”

In their discursive study of circular questioning in a systemic family therapy session, the authors raise some interesting perspectives on the original Milan therapy team's guidelines for the therapist as the conductor of therapy. By emphasizing circularity from a discourse point of view, they suggest these guidelines can be used to help family members hypothesize about their own perspectives on themselves and the other family members in circular terms, and, drawing upon Cecchin's notion of neutrality, by creating a state of curiosity in their talk and maybe in their minds. Their emphasis on circularity also helps us to become more sensitive to ways in which the natural recursion in language can help us to appreciate the new guiding lines circular questions can suggest with previously spoken elements. If we follow this line of argument, then circular questions can be seen as a critical part of a therapy we can call recursive family therapy in which we use the recursive element of all natural living languages to help our clients to recursively change their language and lives naturally.     

Research note: imputing large group averages for missing data,using rural-urban continuum codes for density driven industry sectors

Understanding the effects and consequences of missing data imputation is vital to the ability to obtain meaningful and reliable statistics and coefficients in the examination of any quantitatively-based phenomena. Over time a series of sophisticated methods have been developed to handle the issue of missing data imputation however, these sophisticated methods may not always be appropriate or attainable. In these specific cases more traditional approaches to missing data imputation must be employed and driven by the research project, theoretical framework, and the data. In this research note we offer a brief account of one such instance, implementing a large-group mean imputation approach to handling missing data. The analysis is drawn from a much larger project and shows the effect of proper group selection in terms of mean imputation using a cross-validation approach based on the imputed data’s relation to known values. Ultimately, the results show that the use of Rural-Urban Continuum codes are superior to currently used group-means in the U.S., thus introducing a new, and more efficient, approach to the handling of missing data using group-mean imputation.     

Unresolved issues in the forensic use of DNA profiling

The enormous amount of genetic diversity in humans allows for a powerful form of individual identification. This “DNA profiling”; is based on the fact that sites within the human genome have variable numbers of tandem repeats (VNTRs) and has been hailed in forensic sciences as the greatest discovery since fingerprinting. The techniques involved are virtually the same as those used in all molecular biology laboratories. A major difference however is that in forensic science DNA samples can be less than ideal in both quality and quantity. Furthermore, in basic molecular biology the origin of the sample is known while in forensic testing it is not. Thus, the challenge is to reconcile a “match”; between a crime scene DNA sample and one from a suspect(s). Presently, a debate exists regarding the use of the unmodified product rule versus a more conservative ceiling principle approach to calculate the probability of a coincidentally matching DNA profiles. The latter was endorsed in a recently published report by the prestigious National Research Council but has not received widespread support from testing laboratories. Further exacerbating the debate over how much weight should be attached to DNA profile evidence is a lack of widely accepted standards for forensic laboratories especially in the areas of proficiency testing, publication of error rates and laboratory personnel certification.