The Influence of Weather Conditions on the Relative Incident Rate of Fishing Vessels

There is a long history of studying the relationship between weather and maritime activities. This article analyzes the link between relative incident rate (RIR) and general weather factors within certain gridded areas and time periods. The study area, which encompasses a broad extent of Atlantic Canadian waters, includes fishing incidents recorded by the Canadian Coast Guard from 1997 to 1999. Methodologies used for traffic track generation in a geographical information system and aggregation of all relevant weather data needed for the statistical analyses are presented. Ultimately, a regression tree was built to illustrate the relationship between incident rate and the following six weather factors: wave height; sea surface temperature; air temperature; ice concentration; fog presence; and precipitation. Results from the regression tree reveal that the RIR defined as (incident number per area-day)/(traffic amount per area-day) across grid cells with incidents, increases as the weather conditions deteriorate in a general way, and the concentration of ice has the biggest influence on the magnitude of incident rates for a given level of traffic exposure. The results from this analysis may assist administrators of maritime traffic, especially those associated with fishing activities, through a better understanding of the influence on RIR of certain weather conditions within given areas in specific time periods.     

Commentary on Studying Circular Questioning “In Situ”

In their discursive study of circular questioning in a systemic family therapy session, the authors raise some interesting perspectives on the original Milan therapy team's guidelines for the therapist as the conductor of therapy. By emphasizing circularity from a discourse point of view, they suggest these guidelines can be used to help family members hypothesize about their own perspectives on themselves and the other family members in circular terms, and, drawing upon Cecchin's notion of neutrality, by creating a state of curiosity in their talk and maybe in their minds. Their emphasis on circularity also helps us to become more sensitive to ways in which the natural recursion in language can help us to appreciate the new guiding lines circular questions can suggest with previously spoken elements. If we follow this line of argument, then circular questions can be seen as a critical part of a therapy we can call recursive family therapy in which we use the recursive element of all natural living languages to help our clients to recursively change their language and lives naturally.     

Research note: imputing large group averages for missing data,using rural-urban continuum codes for density driven industry sectors

Understanding the effects and consequences of missing data imputation is vital to the ability to obtain meaningful and reliable statistics and coefficients in the examination of any quantitatively-based phenomena. Over time a series of sophisticated methods have been developed to handle the issue of missing data imputation however, these sophisticated methods may not always be appropriate or attainable. In these specific cases more traditional approaches to missing data imputation must be employed and driven by the research project, theoretical framework, and the data. In this research note we offer a brief account of one such instance, implementing a large-group mean imputation approach to handling missing data. The analysis is drawn from a much larger project and shows the effect of proper group selection in terms of mean imputation using a cross-validation approach based on the imputed data’s relation to known values. Ultimately, the results show that the use of Rural-Urban Continuum codes are superior to currently used group-means in the U.S., thus introducing a new, and more efficient, approach to the handling of missing data using group-mean imputation.     

Unresolved issues in the forensic use of DNA profiling

The enormous amount of genetic diversity in humans allows for a powerful form of individual identification. This “DNA profiling”; is based on the fact that sites within the human genome have variable numbers of tandem repeats (VNTRs) and has been hailed in forensic sciences as the greatest discovery since fingerprinting. The techniques involved are virtually the same as those used in all molecular biology laboratories. A major difference however is that in forensic science DNA samples can be less than ideal in both quality and quantity. Furthermore, in basic molecular biology the origin of the sample is known while in forensic testing it is not. Thus, the challenge is to reconcile a “match”; between a crime scene DNA sample and one from a suspect(s). Presently, a debate exists regarding the use of the unmodified product rule versus a more conservative ceiling principle approach to calculate the probability of a coincidentally matching DNA profiles. The latter was endorsed in a recently published report by the prestigious National Research Council but has not received widespread support from testing laboratories. Further exacerbating the debate over how much weight should be attached to DNA profile evidence is a lack of widely accepted standards for forensic laboratories especially in the areas of proficiency testing, publication of error rates and laboratory personnel certification.     

The Dialectic of Nation Building in Postcolonial Tanzania

The contradiction between capital accumulation in a global economy and political legitimation within the nation‐state has shaped the contentious politics of citizenship and exclusion in postcolonial Africa. A historical analysis of the early postcolonial, state socialist, and neoliberal eras in the African nation‐state of Tanzania reveals that this contradiction generated conflicts within the country's political elite over various public policies, which defined inclusion and exclusion from the community of the nation, and defined the rights of citizens and noncitizens. Political contention over these policies concerned who should be allowed access to citizenship, what rights should be granted to foreigners, and whether all citizens should be granted the same rights regardless of race. Although the institutional expression of the contradiction varied over time, a key divide was between central government administrators who prioritized economic growth in a global economy, and political party leaders and members of parliament (MPs) who were more focused on securing political legitimacy and electoral support within the nation‐state.     

Group Work: Theories and Practices by Siddiqui,H. Y.

This paper describes the use of structured board games as the sole program activity for a small group of maladap- tive Israeli adolescent boys in attendance at a socio-educational community center. The extensive use of groups by non-social work center staff necessitated intensive pre-group planning which included consideration of the setting, the social worker's role, the abilities of otential group members and the classifica- tion and selection orgames. The group met for ten weeks with the social worker actively participating in the games. Positive changes were reported and both emotional growth and behavior change were vistble to the boys and the staff.     

Comparison of Indirect Sources of Efficacy Information in Pretesting Messages for Campaigns to Prevent Drunken Driving

Enabling publics to remove the constraints that prevent health enhancement is the focus of much scholarly research and professional practice. This experiment tested the impact of 2 forms of symbolic modeling and verbal persuasion on self-efficacy beliefs and intentions to prevent a friend from driving drunk. Three efficacy-enhancing public service announcements tested participants' beliefs in their confidence to intervene successfully. As predicted, behavioral and verbal modeling engendered greater perceived self-efficacy and behavioral intentions than did verbal persuasion, with behavioral modeling registering the greatest effects. Implications for designing campaigns of self-directed change to prevent drunken driving among college students are discussed, as well as possible directions for research on self-efficacy and the situational theory of publics.