Summarizing the Effect of a Wide Array of Amenity Measures into Simple Components

A significant issue existing within the rural economic development literature revolves around the difficulty with sorting out the controversy of the effects of amenity activities on rural economic growth. This problem is due to the different ways amenity attributes are linked to regional economic performance. Numerous researchers utilize principal component analysis to compress groups of variables that describe attributes of natural-based amenity and quality of life into scalar measures. While principal components are good at reducing a collection of variables into single measures, they often lack interpretability because they define some abstract scores which are often not meaningful or not well interpretable in practice. We apply the simple component analysis suggested by Rousson and Gasser (2004, Applied Statistics 53, 539–555) to summarize the information in groups of variables into a limited number of simple components and improve interpretability at a modest loss of optimality. Simple components allow us to identify and interpret the effect of attributes that most influence regional economic performance so as to gain better insight into policies to preserve and advance those attributes. The same methodology is appropriate for any social science discipline when there is a need to replace a larger number of multiple indicator measurements with a smaller set.     

Exploring the Unknown: Predicting the Responses of Publics not yet Surveyed

This article argues that cultural change is roughly predictable: to a large extent, it is shaped by a few variables included in a model of cultural modernization that is presented here. The beliefs and values of a society's people are also affected by unique world events and country-specific factors that would not fit into a general model, such as a given society's political parties and leaders, so our predictions will not be precisely accurate. Nevertheless, in this article we will stick our necks out and predict the locations on two major cultural dimensions of all the countries likely to be included in the next wave of the World Values Survey, to be carried out in 2005–2006. Using a simple predictive model based on our revised version of modernization theory, we first ‘predict’ and test the positions that 80 societies should have on a two major dimensions of cross-cultural variation in the most recent wave of surveys (carried out in 1999–2001); we find that our predictions are surprisingly accurate: the average prediction for a given country falls within a small radius of the location that is actually observed on the cross-cultural map (specifically: the average prediction and the actual location fall within a circle that occupies less than two percent of the map's area). We then use this same model to predict the survey responses that we expect to find for 120 countries that are most likely to be surveyed in the next wave of surveys, in 2005–2006. Almost half of these countries have not been included in our previous surveys (and a number have never been covered in any survey of which we are aware). These are genuine blind predictions – which we believe is an important challenge for social scientists. Our predictions will not be exactly correct; in some cases, they will not even be in the right ballpark. But we are confident that in the great majority of cases, they will come much closer to the observed results than would random guesses. We are confident that these a priori predictions will be reasonably close to the results obtained from actual fieldwork, because analysis of data from more than 60 societies surveyed in previous waves of the World Values Surveys and European Values Surveys indicates that cross-cultural differences in basic values have a surprisingly consistent relationship with economic development. The values and beliefs of mass publics vary a great deal cross-nationally, but they tend to vary in a roughly predictable way that can be derived from a revised version of modernization theory.     

DETECT

DETECT is an inexpensive, easy to use, general-purpose, Monte Carlo simulation program for IBM and compatible personal computers. It can be used to quickly analyze fault trees or functions of random variables. DETECT provides a wide variety of input distributions to choose from and a dependency (correlation) option. The result of the analysis is a probability distribution over the variable of interest. We look forward to further improvements (e.g., graphics, full-screen editing, ability to inspect intermediate results) that will make DETECT even more useful and attractive.     

Consumer Deception or Unwarranted Product Disparagement? The Case of Lean,Finely Textured Beef

When celebrity chef Jamie Oliver used his television presence to denounce the inclusion of lean, finely textured beef (LFTB) in ground beef products sold to consumers and present in school lunches, a firestorm of protests ensued. Ultimately, processing plants were closed, employees laid off, school lunch programs were changed to exclude LFTB from their menus, and large retailers such as Costco and Walmart refused to sell products containing LFTB. Calls for mandatory labeling were proposed in Congress, the argument being that consumers had a right to know what was in the beef they were purchasing and feeding their families. Dubbed “pink slime” by its critics, LFTB is treated, processed beef renderings that are derived from trimmings that would otherwise be discarded or used for some inferior purpose such as animal food. This article chronicles the events surrounding the LFTB controversy, briefly reviews scientific evidence pertaining to its safety, and reviews public policy initiatives in the wake of public protests.     

The Social and Economic Impact of Sanctions and Time Limits on Recipients of Temporary Assistance to Needy Families

A central feature of the reforms enacted through the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (welfare reform) has been the adoption of strategies to involuntarily remove Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF) recipients from the welfare rolls, including increased use of sanctions and time limits on welfare receipt. Drawing on data from a three year panel study of women who had been receiving welfare in a state which adopted stringent sanctioning and time limit policies, we investigate predictors of recipients' TANF status after implementation of welfare reform, and identify differences in post-reform material resources, hardships and quality of life based on TANF status. Almost half of all welfare case closures during the first time period after reforms were implemented through involuntary strategies. Relatively few baseline characteristics predicted different outcomes once welfare time limits and sanctions were implemented. Those who were timed off welfare had substantially lower incomes in the year following their removal. One third of all respondents, regardless of reason for leaving TANF reported having insufficient food, housing problems and lack of access to needed medical care.     

Paternal Involvement with Children: The Influence of Gender Ideologies

Although prior social science research has established the ability of gender ideologies to influence the domestic division of labor, it has neglected to disentangle their potentially unique influence on paternal involvement with children. Past research examining the influence of gender ideology on parenting behaviors does not acknowledge potential differences that may result from accounting for each parent's gender ideology. Using both waves of the National Survey of Families and Households (N = 1,088), I assess the effect of both mother's and father's gender ideology on two measures of paternal involvement. Whereas egalitarian fathers demonstrate greater involvement than traditional fathers, mother's gender ideology failed to predict paternal involvement. Egalitarian mothers do not appear to negotiate greater father involvement successfully.     

A Range-Based Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Model for Exchange Rates

In this paper we present a parsimonious multivariate model for exchange rate volatilities based on logarithmic high-low ranges of daily exchange rates. The multivariate stochastic volatility model decomposes the log range of each exchange rate into two independent latent factors, which could be interpreted as the underlying currency specific components. Owing to the empirical normality of the logarithmic range measure the model can be estimated conveniently with the standard Kalman filter methodology. Our results show that our model fits the exchange rate data quite well. Exchange rate news seems to be currency specific and allows identification of currency contributions to both exchange rate levels and exchange rate volatilities.     

Stress Hormone Changes and Marital Conflict: Spouses’ Relative Power Makes a Difference

We investigated the impact of relative marital power on 72 newlywed couples’ endocrinological responses to marital conflict. Marital power was determined by comparing spouses’ reports of dependent love for one another. Less powerful spouses displayed elevated adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH) responses to a conflict discussion. Shared power appeared to have a beneficial effect on wives’ but not husbands’ ACTH responses. Spouses’ cortisol levels declined over time, except for wives who were less powerful and for husbands who shared power with their wives. Conflict behaviors did not differ as a function of this marital power index. These data suggest that relative levels of general emotional power in relationships may play an important role in spouses’ physiological responses to marital conflict.