Optimising the trade-off between type I and II error rates in the Bayesian context

For any decision-making study, there are two sorts of errors that can be made, declaring a positive result when the truth is negative, and declaring a negative result when the truth is positive. Traditionally, the primary analysis of a study is a two-sided hypothesis test, the type I error rate will be set to 5% and the study is designed to give suitably low type II error – typically 10 or 20% – to detect a given effect size. These values are standard, arbitrary and, other than the choice between 10 and 20%, do not reflect the context of the study, such as the relative costs of making type I and II errors and the prior belief the drug will be placebo-like. Several authors have challenged this paradigm, typically for the scenario where the planned analysis is frequentist. When resource is limited, there will always be a trade-off between the type I and II error rates, and this article explores optimising this trade-off for a study with a planned Bayesian statistical analysis. This work provides a scientific basis for a discussion between stakeholders as to what type I and II error rates may be appropriate and some algebraic results for normally distributed data.     

A PATH TOWARD INTERRACIAL MARRIAGE: Women's First Partners and Husbands across Racial Lines

We examine interracial marriage as a culminating event in a sequence of intimate relationships across the life course. Using data from the 1995 National Survey of Family Growth, we analyze the background characteristics associated with selecting a first sex partner and first husband who differ in race/ethnicity from the respondent as well as the continuity across both outcomes. Our results show that respondents' race/ethnicity, parents' education, and region of birth are significant predictors of both choices. Selecting partners across racial lines for first sex is significantly associated with the selection of a first husband across race; the association between both outcomes is particularly strong for non-Hispanic black women, implying that social integration across race may be a life course phenomenon.     

The development of a new measure for work-family research: Community resource fit

We describe the development and validation of a quantitative measure of community resource fit; i.e., satisfaction with the extent to which community resources meet the needs of working families of school-aged children. The measure has good psychometric properties, and preliminary results suggest that the measure warrants further study. The measure is composed of six moderately intercorrelated subscales assessing resource fit in the areas of work, public transportation, school, school transportation, after-school programs and after-school transportation resources. We found interesting patterns of results linking community resource fit, especially in the areas of work and school resource fit, to a variety of quality-of-life and well-being outcomes among employed parents of school-aged children. These outcomes include work-to-family and family-to-work conflict and enhancement, psychological distress, job–role quality, likelihood of losing or leaving one's job and likelihood of leaving one's line of work.     

Work‐Family Enrichment and Conflict: Additive Effects,Buffering, or Balance?

We used data from the Midlife Development in the United States (MIDUS I) (N = 2,031) to compare three models of how work‐family conflict and enrichment might operate to predict well‐being (mental health, life satisfaction, affect balance, partner relationship quality). We found no support for a relative‐difference model in which the conflict‐enrichment balance predicted outcomes. In the work‐to‐family direction, the additive model fit best: Both work‐to‐family conflict and work‐to‐family enrichment were independently linked to outcomes. In the family‐to‐work direction, the interactive model fit best: Family‐to‐work enrichment buffered the negative outcomes ordinarily linked to family‐to‐work conflict. Enrichment is key because with the additive model, it contributed incremental explanatory power, and with the buffering model, it conditioned conflict‐outcome relationships. Work‐to‐family conflict and family‐to‐work enrichment appeared particularly salient for well‐being.     

And Neither Are We Saved: Asian Americans' Elusive Quest for Racial Justice

Derrick Bell, Civil Rights activist, legal scholar, and a founder of critical race theory, dedicated much of his life and scholarship to the pursuit of racial justice. Twenty‐six years ago, in his work And We Are Not Saved, he recognized that racial progress has been stalled and racial equality would not be a reality in his lifetime. Bell passed away in October 2011, and we are reminded that there is still much work to do. He presented a conundrum that race scholars have said all there is to say about racial problems in the United States; yet, he encouraged scholars to keep moving the work forward. At the time And We Are Not Saved was written, much of the racial scholarship was centered on the Black–White paradigm. In the 26 years since Bell wrote it, there has been a growth of Asian American research. This essay surveys some critical racial analysis of Asian Americans. There have been major contributions to the literature extending racial scholarship beyond the Black–White paradigm. Additionally, intersectional scholarship extends the discussion into other systems of oppression, highlighting how racism can be veiled in different systems. Critical race scholarship is imperative to keep Bell's dream of racial equality alive.     

Empowering Rural Sociology: Exploring and Linking Alternative Paradigms in Theory and Methodology1

Abstract Theoretical and methodological approaches to rural social change are explored, especially those that give visibility to the range of heterogeneous experiences and perspectives that often are overlooked or ignored. Theoretical developments in postmodern, narrative, and feminist theory are described as are the methodological approaches they imply. Examples of research on rural social change that attempt to integrate theory and methods in ways that respect the complicated, processual nature of social life are discussed. They provide concrete illustrations of how alternative approaches can be fruitfully applied to some of the issues and problems rural sociologists typically study.     

Coordination,Fragmentation and Definitions of Need: The New Under Fives Initiative and Homeless Families

SUMMARY. This article links together the broad coordination debate within the early years field, and how children's needs are conceptualised and defined. It does this in conjunction with an examination of the government's new Under Fives Initiative and the situation of the homeless families that some of the voluntary projects funded under the Initiative are intended to reach. For homeless families, mothers' more holistic perceptions of their children's needs are revealed as providing a good basis for coordination within and between sectors, as opposed to policy, agency and professional definitions of their needs. The latter are being forged and reformulated in the context of increasing service fragmentation, as well as short term government funding for the voluntary sector. Coherence in definitions of needs could provide a pragmatic response to such changes in service provision and funding.     

Ideology Formation: a Linear Structural Model of the Influences on Feminist Ideology*

Three models of ideology formation are presented as possible explanations for support of feminist attitudes. The simplest is a one-step model positing a direct connection between social structural variables and ideology. The second, using the race relations literature, adds social psychological transformation mechanisms, and the third adds peer support. The models were tested on a sample of women drawn from a small mid-western city. Step-wise regressions were computed with tests for the increment in R². The second model held for married women; the full model only held for single women; but when peers are entered between the social structural and the social psychological groups, the full model holds both for single and married women.     

Evaluation of Methods for Assessing the Oral Bioavailability of Inorganic Mercury in Soil

The risks associated with environmental exposures to inorganic mercury are typically assessed based on toxicity studies conducted with the soluble salt, mercuric chloride (HgCl₂). Evidence indicates, however, that inorganic mercury is present in soil as a variety of compounds and that oral absorption of inorganic mercury decreases with a decrease in the solubility of the mercury compound being studied. Thus, while HgCl₂ is approximately 15–20% bioavailable, the bioavailability of cinnabar (HgS) may be 30- to 60-fold less. The solubility and, hence, bioavailability of inorganic mercury in soil is expected to be substantially less than that of HgCl₂ due to the presence of less soluble compounds and their interactions with soil constituents. Quantification of this difference in bioavailability is important in assessing potential risks associated with exposure to mercury-containing soil. A review of available studies supports the expectation that mercury bioavailability in soils will be reduced. This paper reviews methods for assessing soil metal absorption with consideration of the characteristics of the oral absorption of elemental and inorganic mercury that should be evaluated in designing additional studies. Because of the very slow elimination of mercury in some species, it is recommended that a repeated-dose study be conducted. Such a study would yield an estimate of relative bioavailability based on a comparison of tissue mercury concentrations in animals ingesting soil with those of animals receiving HgCl₂. The dose, age, gender, and species of animal selected are not expected to affect relative bioavailability estimates; however, it is recommended that studies be conducted in two animal species. Rats should be used because they have been used in many studies of mercury absorption and toxicity. A species of large animals such as monkeys, swine, or dogs should also be used to provide confirmation in a species with greater similarities to humans in gastrointestinal physiology and anatomy. Other critical factors in designing these studies, such as selection and characterization of soil samples, are also addressed.