Hilda Mary Woods MBE, DSc, LRAM, FSS (1892-1971): reflections on a Fellow of the Royal Statistical Society

We have previously described the content of a text by Woods and Russell, An Introduction to Medical Statistics, compared it with Principles of Medical Statistics by Hill and set both volumes against the background of vital statistics up until 1937. The two books mark a watershed in the history of medical statistics. Very little has been recorded about the life and career of the first author of the earlier textbook, who was a Fellow of the Royal Statistical Society for at least 25 years, an omission which we can now rectify with this paper. We describe her education, entry into medical statistics, relationship with Major Greenwood and her subsequent career and life in Ceylon, Kenya, Australia, England and South Africa.     

Dementia with cerebrovascular disease

In this case study, we review the symptoms, cognitive testing, brain imaging, and brain pathology of a woman with dementia, for whom the neuropathological findings suggest a prominent contribution of cerebrovascular disease. Vascular dementia is the term commonly used for persons with dementia resulting from strokes, either clinically evident or subclinical "silent" events. "Mixed dementia" is the term used when there is an admixture of pathological findings related to Alzheimer's disease (AD) and cerebrovascular disease, as in this situation. In some cases of mixed dementia, the pathological involvement of AD may be the principal contributory cause of the cognitive symptoms, and in others, the vascular changes may give the greater contribution.     

Adjusting overall survival for treatment switches: commonly used methods and practical application

In parallel group trials, long‐term efficacy endpoints may be affected if some patients switch or cross over to the alternative treatment arm prior to the event. In oncology trials, switch to the experimental treatment can occur in the control arm following disease progression and potentially impact overall survival. It may be a clinically relevant question to estimate the efficacy that would have been observed if no patients had switched, for example, to estimate ‘real‐life’ clinical effectiveness for a health technology assessment. Several commonly used statistical methods are available that try to adjust time‐to‐event data to account for treatment switching, ranging from naive exclusion and censoring approaches to more complex inverse probability of censoring weighting and rank‐preserving structural failure time models. These are described, along with their key assumptions, strengths, and limitations. Best practice guidance is provided for both trial design and analysis when switching is anticipated. Available statistical software is summarized, and examples are provided of the application of these methods in health technology assessments of oncology trials. Key considerations include having a clearly articulated rationale and research question and a well‐designed trial with sufficient good quality data collection to enable robust statistical analysis. No analysis method is universally suitable in all situations, and each makes strong untestable assumptions. There is a need for further research into new or improved techniques. This information should aid statisticians and their colleagues to improve the design and analysis of clinical trials where treatment switch is anticipated. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Inference for a Class of Stochastic Volatility Models Using Option and Spot Prices: Application of a Bivariate Kalman Filter

In this paper Bayesian methods are applied to a stochastic volatility model using both the prices of the asset and the prices of options written on the asset. Posterior densities for all model parameters, latent volatilities and the market price of volatility risk are produced via a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling algorithm. Candidate draws for the unobserved volatilities are obtained in blocks by applying the Kalman filter and simulation smoother to a linearization of a nonlinear state space representation of the model. Crucially, information from both the spot and option prices affects the draws via the specification of a bivariate measurement equation, with implied Black–Scholes volatilities used to proxy observed option prices in the candidate model. Alternative models nested within the Heston (1993) framework are ranked via posterior odds ratios, as well as via fit, predictive and hedging performance. The method is illustrated using Australian News Corporation spot and option price data.     

The relationship between bonding and bridging social capital among Christian denominations across Australia

This article is an intricate empirical examination of the relationship between bridging and bonding with respect to subcultural differences in religious denomination and faith orientation. The respondents were 2,710 Christian church attendees from nineteen denominations across Australia. They were surveyed with a closed‐answer questionnaire covering the topics of faith, demographics, involvement in the congregation, and involvement in the wider community. The results revealed a positive relationship between bonding and bridging social capital, with a high level of bonding associated with a high level of bridging for all denominations and faith identities. There was no evidence that high bonding within the congregation restricted bridging beyond the congregation. The results support the notion that the relationship between bonding and bridging may vary with societal subcultures.