Semiparametric Regression with Kernel Error Model

Abstract.  We propose and study a class of regression models, in which the mean function is specified parametrically as in the existing regression methods, but the residual distribution is modelled non-parametrically by a kernel estimator, without imposing any assumption on its distribution. This specification is different from the existing semiparametric regression models. The asymptotic properties of such likelihood and the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) under this semiparametric model are studied. We show that under some regularity conditions, the MLE under this model is consistent (when compared with the possibly pseudo-consistency of the parameter estimation under the existing parametric regression model), is asymptotically normal with rate and efficient. The non-parametric pseudo-likelihood ratio has the Wilks property as the true likelihood ratio does. Simulated examples are presented to evaluate the accuracy of the proposed semiparametric MLE method.     

Understanding 2016: China,Brexit and Trump in the history of uneven and combined development

This article uses the theory of uneven and combined development (U&CD) to produce a novel explanation of ‘Brexit and Trump’ – the two shock political events of 2016. The argument proceeds in three steps. First, we identify the global conjuncture of historical unevenness in which the votes occurred: how the neoliberal transformation of the advanced capitalist countries was synchronized with the radically different process of primitive accumulation in China. Second, we apply the theory of U&CD to this peculiar ‘simultaneity of the non‐simultaneous’: the ‘big country’ effects of China's industrialization, we find, were thrice multiplied by its combination with the advanced sectors of the world economy, which accelerated China's take‐off, brought forward its export phase, and widened its export profile at a moment of maximum openness in international trade. Finally, this produced the pattern of development that led to the events of 2016: the resultant trade shocks intensified the internal inequalities of British and American societies in ways that match the geography of the Leave and Trump votes. The analysis has a wider intellectual implication too, for the phenomena of historical unevenness and combination are intrinsic to the history of the global political economy; and the theory of U&CD therefore has a unique contribution to make to the field of International Political Economy.     

RISK PREFERENCES AND EXPECTED UTILITY: EVIDENCE FROM LABOR SUPPLY DATA

This paper adds to the growing body of evidence that observed risk preferences are not consistent with expected‐utility theory. Using the link between labor supply decisions and utility as outlined by Chetty (“A Bound on Risk Aversion Using Labor Supply Elasticities.” The American Economic Review, 96(5), 2006, 1821–34), I compute the curvature of utility over wealth for 3,900 individuals in the 1996 Panel Study of Income Dynamics. I then compare this estimate to a measure of relative risk aversion based on the respondents' answers to hypothetical gambling questions and find virtually zero correlation. Finally, I investigate how the two measures and their correlations change by demographic groups and risky behavior. (JEL C81, D80, J22)     

Backcalculation of flexible linear models of the human immunodeficiency virus infection curve

The authors present a regression approach to the backcalculation of flexible linear models of the HIV infection curve. They note that "because expected AIDS incidence can be expressed as a linear function of unknown parameters, regression methods may be used to obtain parameter and covariance estimates for a variety of interesting quantities, such as the expected number of people infected in previous time intervals and the projected AIDS incidence in future time intervals. We exploit these ideas to show that estimates based on maximum likelihood are, for practical purposes, equivalent to approximate estimates based on quasi-likelihood and on Poisson regression. These algorithms are readily implemented on a personal computer." These concepts are illustrated by projecting AIDS incidence in the United States up to 1993.     

Coming In: Queer Narratives of Sexual Self-Discovery

Many models of queer sexuality continue to depict a linear narrative of sexual development, beginning in repression/concealment and eventuating in coming out. The present study sought to challenge this by engaging in a hermeneutically informed thematic analysis of interviews with eight queer people living in Western Australia. Four themes were identified: “searching for identity,” “society, stigma, and self,” “sexual self-discovery,” and “coming in.” Interviewees discussed internalized homophobia and its impact on their life; experiences and implications of finding a community and achieving a sense of belonging; the concept of sexual self-discovery being a lifelong process; and sexuality as fluid, dynamic, and situational rather than static. The article concludes by suggesting that the idea of “coming in”—arriving at a place of acceptance of one’s sexuality, regardless of its fluidity or how it is viewed by society—offers considerable analytic leverage for understanding the journeys of sexual self-discovery of queer-identified people.