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In this article, we introduce new asymptotic expansions for probability functions of sums of independent and identically distributed random variables. Results are obtained by efficiently employing information provided by lower-order convolutions. In comparison with Edgeworth-type theorems, advantages include improved asymptotic results in the case of symmetric random variables and ease of computation of main error terms and asymptotic crossing points. The first-order estimate can perform quite well against the corresponding renormalized saddlepoint approximation and, pointwise, requires evaluation of only a single convolution integral. While the new expansions are fairly straightforward, the implications are fortuitous and may spur further related work.  相似文献   
74.
In this paper, a novel Bayesian framework is used to derive the posterior density function, predictive density for a single future response, a bivariate future response, and several future responses from the exponentiated Weibull model (EWM). We study three related types of models, the exponentiated exponential, exponentiated Weibull, and beta generalized exponential, which are all utilized to determine the goodness of fit of two real data sets. The statistical analysis indicates that the EWM best fits both data sets. We determine the predictive means, standard deviations, highest predictive density intervals, and the shape characteristics for a single future response. We also consider a new parameterization method to determine the posterior kernel densities for the parameters. The summary results of the parameters are calculated by using the Markov chain Monte Carlo method.  相似文献   
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Spatio-temporal surveillance methods for detecting outbreaks of disease are fairly common in the literature with the scan statistic setting the benchmark. If the shape and size of the outbreaks are known in advance, then the scan approach can be designed to efficiently detect these, however, this is seldom true. Therefore we want to devise plans that are efficient at detecting a number of outbreaks that vary in size and shape. This paper examines plans which use the exponential weighted moving average statistic to build temporal memory into plans and tries to develop robust plans for detecting outbreaks of unknown shapes and sizes.  相似文献   
77.
We use household-level data to explore residential electricity use patterns following installation of solar panels. Solar adoption leads to an increase in total electricity consumption relative to a matched non-adopting control group. Our point estimate translates to a rebound effect of 28.5%, suggesting that nearly a third of the electricity produced by a customer's solar panels is used for increased energy services, rather than reduced grid electricity consumption. We explore several potential drivers of an increase in electricity consumption. These results have important implications for electricity planning and policy, suggesting that rooftop solar stimulates additional demand for electricity.  相似文献   
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Estimates of variance from samples depend strongly on extreme values. Incomplete variance functions may be used to explain the unreliability of variance estimates when the distribution is long-tailed.  相似文献   
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It is commonly required to detect change points in sequences of random variables. In the most difficult setting of this problem, change detection must be performed sequentially with new observations being constantly received over time. Further, the parameters of both the pre- and post- change distributions may be unknown. In Hawkins and Zamba (Technometrics 47(2):164–173, 2005), the sequential generalised likelihood ratio test was introduced for detecting changes in this context, under the assumption that the observations follow a Gaussian distribution. However, we show that the asymptotic approximation used in their test statistic leads to it being conservative even when a large numbers of observations is available. We propose an improved procedure which is more efficient, in the sense of detecting changes faster, in all situations. We also show that similar issues arise in other parametric change detection contexts, which we illustrate by introducing a novel monitoring procedure for sequences of Exponentially distributed random variable, which is an important topic in time-to-failure modelling.  相似文献   
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