Bayesian,classical and hybrid methods of inference when one parameter value is special

This paper considers the problem of making statistical inferences about a parameter when a narrow interval centred at a given value of the parameter is considered special, which is interpreted as meaning that there is a substantial degree of prior belief that the true value of the parameter lies in this interval. A clear justification of the practical importance of this problem is provided. The main difficulty with the standard Bayesian solution to this problem is discussed and, as a result, a pseudo-Bayesian solution is put forward based on determining lower limits for the posterior probability of the parameter lying in the special interval by means of a sensitivity analysis. Since it is not assumed that prior beliefs necessarily need to be expressed in terms of prior probabilities, nor that post-data probabilities must be Bayesian posterior probabilities, hybrid methods of inference are also proposed that are based on specific ways of measuring and interpreting the classical concept of significance. The various methods that are outlined are compared and contrasted at both a foundational level, and from a practical viewpoint by applying them to real data from meta-analyses that appeared in a well-known medical article.     

A Multicompartment SIS Stochastic Model with Zonal Ventilation for the Spread of Nosocomial Infections: Detection,Outbreak Management,and Infection Control

In this work, we study the environmental and operational factors that influence airborne transmission of nosocomial infections. We link a deterministic zonal ventilation model for the airborne distribution of infectious material in a hospital ward, with a Markovian multicompartment SIS model for the infection of individuals within this ward, in order to conduct a parametric study on ventilation rates and their effect on the epidemic dynamics. Our stochastic model includes arrival and discharge of patients, as well as the detection of the outbreak by screening events or due to symptoms being shown by infective patients. For each ventilation setting, we measure the infectious potential of a nosocomial outbreak in the hospital ward by means of a summary statistic: the number of infections occurred within the hospital ward until end or declaration of the outbreak. We analytically compute the distribution of this summary statistic, and carry out local and global sensitivity analysis in order to identify the particular characteristics of each ventilation regime with the largest impact on the epidemic spread. Our results show that ward ventilation can have a significant impact on the infection spread, especially under slow detection scenarios or in overoccupied wards, and that decreasing the infection risk for the whole hospital ward might increase the risk in specific areas of the health‐care facility. Moreover, the location of the initial infective individual and the protocol in place for outbreak declaration both form an interplay with ventilation of the ward.     

Does Weighting Capture What’s Important? Revisiting Subjective Importance Weighting with a Quality of Life Measure

The present study evaluated subjective importance weighting using data collected with the Injection Drug User Quality of Life Scale (IDUQOL). Weighted and unweighted IDUQOL scores from 241 adults were correlated with convergent, discriminant, and criterion measures. Regression analysis was used to examine the contribution of importance ratings to scores on a global measure of life satisfaction and the corrected weighted IDUQOL total scores. Overall, the results showed that weighted scores did not perform better than unweighted scores in measuring quality of life. However, the mean satisfaction ratings for important domains correlated significantly higher with convergent measures than did the mean satisfaction ratings for unimportant domains. This finding suggests further attention needs to be paid to the meaning and measurement of subjective importance and how it may be incorporated more effectively into measures of quality of life.     

Roles,race and subjective well-being: A longitudinal analysis of elderly men

The basic contention of this paper is that research on subjective well-being would benefit from an integration of theory and research from other studies of subjective states, such as mental and physical health. Toward that end, we present results of an analysis of the impact of race and social roles on subjective well-being in a nationally representative sample of elderly men. The findings demonstrate that particular role configurations have an effect on happiness and that these effects are different for blacks and whites. Theoretical implications of these findings for subjective well-being research and role accumulation theory are discussed.     

Social Capital Inequality and Subjective Wellbeing of Older Chinese

Using longitudinal data from the China Family Panel Studies, this study provides insights on comparative wellbeing outcomes for older people who are institutionally segregated into clusters that produce uneven social capital. We present the first study that examines how institutionalized social capital inequality, measured by the social capital gap generated by hukou (household registration) status in China, affects the wellbeing of older people. Our results show that high levels of social capital inequality are associated with lower subjective wellbeing, measured by life satisfaction. This general conclusion is robust to a number of sensitivity checks including alternative ways of measuring subjective wellbeing and inequality. We also find that the negative relationship between social capital inequality and subjective wellbeing is strongest for people with a non-urban hukou living in urban areas. Our findings highlight the need for policies aimed at narrowing the social capital gap and the dismantling of institutional structures that hinder upward social capital mobility.

     

Decoding the Miss Daisy Syndrome: an examination of subjective responses to mobility change

The subjective responses associated with personal life space and mobility status were explored. Thirty individuals participated in focus groups based on self-rated disability status, current places visited, and availability. Qualitative analyses revealed that most participants equated personal mobility with driving a vehicle. Attitudes concerning mobility status and preparedness for change varied based on disability level and personal experience. Fear of dependence from future mobility loss was prominent in all groups. Few participants acknowledged significant planning for future retirement from driving or other mobility challenges. An understanding of common attitudes, perceptions and meanings can inform professionals who intervene and support older adults experiencing mobility changes.     

Gender Justice or Just Gender? The Role of Gender in Sexual Assault Decisions at the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia*

Objective. This article examines gender justice at the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY) by analyzing sexual assault cases and the impact that gender composition has on sentencing outcomes. Methods. We employ regression analysis to explain the impact of male and female jurists as decisionmakers and the subsequent outcomes rendered for victims. Results. We find that gender is a determinate factor in sentencing outcomes, and that female judges have a distinctive role that varies depending on the gender of the victim in the case. Conclusion. Contrary to criticisms that the ICTY has not provided justice for victims in sexual assault cases, we find support for the exact opposite. Sentencing disparities indicate that female jurists more severely sanction defendants who assault women, while all male panels of judges do the same for male victims.     

GAUGING NEW ZEALAND'S SUCCESS AT POVERTY REDUCTION IN THE NEW MILLENIUM

This paper presents the results of the New Zealand Poverty Measurement Project's analysis of the effects of the 1990s social reforms in New Zealand on the incidence and severity of poverty, and assesses the impact of five social and economic policies introduced by the Labour‐led coalition governments since 1999: New Zealand superannuation, income‐related rents on state houses, active labour market policies for an employment‐rich economy, the Primary Health Care Strategy and the planned income support policy to reduce child poverty. Superannuation is assessed as both adequate and sustainable, rents for state houses are found to be affordable, and GDP growth and employment have increased incrementally as unemployment and benefit numbers have decreased. The Primary Health Care Strategy is an innovative initiative that will increase affordable access to general practitioners, but it and the proposed child assistance initiatives are too new to be adequately assessed. Of the challenges that remain, policy priorities should centre on housing alternatives, including home ownership for low‐income households not in state houses; income support for poor households, particularly those with children; and multi‐sector development of education and training aimed at lifting economic and social capacity.