The 2012 Retirement Confidence Survey: job insecurity, debt weigh on retirement confidence, savings

Americans' confidence in their ability to retire comfortably is stagnant at historically low levels. Just 14 percent are very confident they will have enough money to live comfortably in retirement (statistically equivalent to the low of 13 percent measured in 2011 and 2009). Employment insecurity looms large: Forty-two percent identify job uncertainty as the most pressing financial issue facing most Americans today. Worker confidence about having enough money to pay for medical expenses and long-term care expenses in retirement remains well below their confidence levels for paying basic expenses. Many workers report they have virtually no savings and investments. In total, 60 percent of workers report that the total value of their household's savings and investments, excluding the value of their primary home and any defined benefit plans, is less than $25,000. Twenty-five percent of workers in the 2012 Retirement Confidence Survey say the age at which they expect to retire has changed in the past year. In 1991, 11 percent of workers said they expected to retire after age 65, and by 2012 that has grown to 37 percent. Regardless of those retirement age expectations, and consistent with prior RCS findings, half of current retirees surveyed say they left the work force unexpectedly due to health problems, disability, or changes at their employer, such as downsizing or closure. Those already in retirement tend to express higher levels of confidence than current workers about several key financial aspects of retirement. Retirees report they are significantly more reliant on Social Security as a major source of their retirement income than current workers expect to be. Although 56 percent of workers expect to receive benefits from a defined benefit plan in retirement, only 33 percent report that they and/or their spouse currently have such a benefit with a current or previous employer. More than half of workers (56 percent) report they and/or their spouse have not tried to calculate how much money they will need to have saved by the time they retire so that they can live comfortably in retirement. Only a minority of workers and retirees feel very comfortable using online technologies to perform various tasks related to financial management. Relatively few use mobile devices such as a smart phone or tablet to manage their finances, and just 10 percent say they are comfortable obtaining advice from financial professionals online.     

Inequalities of Gender and Health 1857–1985: A Long‐run Perspective from the Melbourne Lying‐In Hospital Birth Cohort

This paper reviews the Australian historical record in health and gender inequalities since the mid nineteenth century through to the end of the twentieth century, using survival data from an historical cohort of impoverished people born in the Melbourne Lying‐In Hospital between 1857 and 1900. This data reveals the long shadow cast by disadvantage in early life and the critical importance of secure households in supporting infancy and childhood. Above all, the income security and support of mothers, was critical to survival of infants and children, and those households trapped in the casual economy, remained the most vulnerable to premature death. Only the improvements in labour force regulation, government employment and trade education after World War II, broke the cycle of poverty that had persisted in Australia since the earliest days of European settlement.     

Being close: The quality of social relationships in a local organic cereal and bread network in Lower Austria

Experience of the drawbacks of a globalised and industrialised food system has generated interest in localised food systems. Local food networks are regarded as more sustainable food provision systems since they are assumed to have high levels of social embeddedness and relations of regard. This paper explores the social relations between food actors and how ‘local’ and ‘organic’ are expressed by detailing how actors describe qualities of their intra-network relationships, how they understand ‘local’ and how they are connected within the food system. A study from the province of Lower Austria in Austria, where organic cereals and bread are produced and marketed, serves to illuminate these issues. Actors agreed that geographical closeness contributed to the social closeness they experienced and that social relationships were a strong reason for being in the network. However, the meaning of ‘local’ was elastic depending on where inputs and consumers could be found. Furthermore, despite strong commitment to organic production methods and the local market, actors faced constraints that made them hybrids between organic and conventional, and between locally focused and globally dependent. Thus, the binary thinking along the local-global and organic-conventional divide does not hold. While it is important to not make a causal link between high quality of social relationships and local food networks, the case described here indicates the possibility of such a link.     

Use of multiple imputation in supersampled nested case-control and case-cohort studies

Nested case-control and case-cohort studies are useful for studying associations between covariates and time-to-event when some covariates are expensive to measure. Full covariate information is collected in the nested case-control or case-cohort sample only, while cheaply measured covariates are often observed for the full cohort. Standard analysis of such case-control samples ignores any full cohort data. Previous work has shown how data for the full cohort can be used efficiently by multiple imputation of the expensive covariate(s), followed by a full-cohort analysis. For large cohorts this is computationally expensive or even infeasible. An alternative is to supplement the case-control samples with additional controls on which cheaply measured covariates are observed. We show how multiple imputation can be used for analysis of such supersampled data. Simulations show that this brings efficiency gains relative to a traditional analysis and that the efficiency loss relative to using the full cohort data is not substantial.     

Hostile home environment predicting early adolescent sexual harassment perpetration and potential school-related moderators

Using family systems theory, this longitudinal study of middle school youth examined the effects of abuse, family conflict, and sibling aggression on sexual harassment perpetration (N = 1563; M_age 11.2, 51% boys; 39% Hispanic, 29% Black, and 19% White). Boys reported more sexual harassment than girls; perpetration increased for both. The association between a hostile home environment and sexual harassment perpetration was moderated by school experiences. School belonging buffered effects of hostile home environment on baseline sexual harassment perpetration for boys who experienced abuse and White adolescents with high sibling aggression. Academic grades moderated change in perpetration over time, but effects differed by sex and race. It is important to understand how early violence exposures relate to sexual violence perpetration during early adolescence.     

Is specialization desirable in committee decision making?

Committee decision making is examined in this study focusing on the role assigned to the committee members. In particular, we are concerned about the comparison between committee performance under specialization and non-specialization of the decision makers. Specialization (in the context of project or public policy selection) means that the decision of each committee member is based on a narrow area, which typically results in the acquirement and use of relatively high expertise in that area. When the committee members’ expertise is already determined, specialization only means that the decision of each committee member is based solely on his/her relatively high expertise area. This form of specialization is potentially inferior relative to non-specialization under which the decision of each committee member is based on different areas, not just his/her relatively high expertise area. Given that the expertise of the committee members is already determined but unknown, our analysis focuses on non-specializing individuals whose decision is based on a decision rule that does not require information on the decision-making skills. Under these realistic assumptions, non-specialization is shown to be preferable over specialization, depending on the aggregation rule applied by the committee. The significance of our approach is not limited to the specific results that we obtain. Rather, it should be viewed as a first step toward a deeper examination of the role of individual decision makers in enhancing the performance of collective decision making.     

Importance tempering

Simulated tempering (ST) is an established Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for sampling from a multimodal density π(θ). Typically, ST involves introducing an auxiliary variable k taking values in a finite subset of [0,1] and indexing a set of tempered distributions, say π _k (θ)∝ π(θ) ^k . In this case, small values of k encourage better mixing, but samples from π are only obtained when the joint chain for (θ,k) reaches k=1. However, the entire chain can be used to estimate expectations under π of functions of interest, provided that importance sampling (IS) weights are calculated. Unfortunately this method, which we call importance tempering (IT), can disappoint. This is partly because the most immediately obvious implementation is naïve and can lead to high variance estimators. We derive a new optimal method for combining multiple IS estimators and prove that the resulting estimator has a highly desirable property related to the notion of effective sample size. We briefly report on the success of the optimal combination in two modelling scenarios requiring reversible-jump MCMC, where the naïve approach fails.