CAN THE PRESIDENT REALLY AFFECT ECONOMIC GROWTH? PRESIDENTIAL EFFORT AND THE POLITICAL BUSINESS CYCLE

Presidential elections are often seen as referendums on the health of the economy; however, little evidence exists on the president's ability to influence gross domestic product (GDP). This study examines the effect of the incentive to be reelected and the resulting increase in presidential effort on GDP growth. Growth is found to rise in reelection years for first‐term presidents after 1932 and to fall in election years before 1932, when reelection was uncommon, and for second‐term presidents generally. This effect is largest for high‐quality presidents—who probably have the highest return to effort—and is spread across multiple sectors of the economy. (JEL D78, D72, E32, J24)     

A Starting Point for Navigating the World of Daily Fantasy Basketball

Fantasy sports, particularly the daily variety in which new lineups are selected each day, are a rapidly growing industry. The two largest companies in the daily fantasy business, DraftKings and Fanduel, have been valued as high as $2 billion. This research focuses on the development of a complete system for daily fantasy basketball, including both the prediction of player performance and the construction of a team. First, a Bayesian random effects model is used to predict an aggregate measure of daily NBA player performance. The predictions are then used to construct teams under the constraints of the game, typically related to a fictional salary cap and player positions. Permutation based and K-nearest neighbors approaches are compared in terms of the identification of “successful” teams—those who would be competitive more often than not based on historical data. We demonstrate the efficacy of our system by comparing our predictions to those from a well-known analytics website, and by simulating daily competitions over the course of the 2015–2016 season. Our results show an expected profit of approximately $9,000 on an initial $500 investment using the K-nearest neighbors approach, a 36% increase relative to using the permutation-based approach alone. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

High Culture Orientation and the Attitudes and Values of College Students

Using survey data collected from a sample of college students, the authors explore variability in high culrure orientation. Parent's socioeconomic status, traditionally thought to be predictive of high culture orientation, was not significantly related to it in this sample. Factors found to be associated with high culture orientation include interpersonal experience, occupational orientation, and cultural knowledge and participation.     

The Use of Generalized Estimating Equations for Risk Assessment in Developmental Toxicity

This paper reviews and compares several approaches to fitting dose-response models to developmental toxicity data. The main issue of interest is how to appropriately account for litter effects. Among the approaches reviewed are Beta Binomial models, models that attempt to characterize the litter effect through the use of covariates, and models that avoid the complication of correlated offspring by modeling "affected litter" rather than fetus-specific outcomes. Finally, we discuss our recommended approach, which is to use Generalized Estimating Equations, or quasi-likelihood. We give a number of reasons for preferring the latter and illustrate its application with an example.     

Probabilistic Connotations of Carcinogen Hazard Classifications: Analysis of Survey Data for Anchoring Effects

A study was undertaken to test for anchoring effects when numerical probabilities were elicited for carcinogen hazard designations. Subjects were asked to assign probabilities to both probable and possible. The sequence was randomly varied so that half of the subjects evaluated probable first and half evaluated possible first. While there was no consensus on the numerical probabilistic meanings assigned to these verbal expressions, in general, probable was assigned a higher probability than possible and there were specific values that were assigned frequently, indicating some consistency in interpretation. There appeared to be a fairly constant scaling factor between the probabilities assigned to the designations. Anchoring was manifested in two ways: a smaller difference between the designations when they were evaluated in sequence than when they were evaluated in isolation, and assignment of readily accessible "benchmark" values such as 50% and 75%.     

Getting Together to Get Ahead: The Impact of Social Structure on Women's Networking

This paper examines the impact of socio‐structural variables (i.e. perceptions of permeability, stability and legitimacy of intergroup relations) on the extent to which professional women perceive a women's network as a collective strategy for status enhancement. A survey among network members (n=166) suggests that the extent to which women support and consider a network to benefit women as a collective is dependent on perceptions of whether individual mobility is possible (permeability of group boundaries) and beliefs that organizational conditions will improve for women in the future (stability of conditions for women). Specifically, the network is less likely to be perceived as a collective vehicle for change when individual advancement is possible (because intergroup boundaries are perceived as permeable) and status improvement in the future is unlikely. However, regardless of beliefs about the future, when female participants perceive that many barriers to individual advancement exist (due to the impermeability of intergroup boundaries), the network is considered in more collective terms presumably because the only way to challenge the status quo is through a collective effort. The practical implications for organizations that wish to or have established a women's network are discussed.     

保护加拿大的绿色力量

在加拿大,经常可以听到这样一句话:“环保就是力量。“那里,天空湛蓝,湖水清澈,空气清新,满山遍野覆盖着草地和森林,到处都有一种水洗过的感觉,用纤尘不染来形容一点也不为过,尤其夏秋季节,更是景色迷人。加拿大也和其他西方国家一样,走过一段“先污染,后治理“的工业