Robust estimation of a dynamic spatio-temporal model with structural change

We postulate a dynamic spatio-temporal model with constant covariate effect but with varying spatial effect over time and varying temporal effect across locations. To mitigate the effect of temporary structural change, the model can be estimated using the backfitting algorithm embedded with forward search algorithm and bootstrap. A simulation study is designed to evaluate structural optimality of the model with the estimation procedure. The fitted model exhibit superior predictive ability relative to the linear model. The proposed algorithm also consistently produced lower relative bias and standard errors for the spatial parameter estimates. While additional neighbourhoods do not necessarily improve predictive ability of the model, it trims down relative bias on the parameter estimates, specially for spatial parameter. Location of the temporary structural change along with the degree of structural change contributes to lower relative bias of parameter estimates and in better predictive ability of the model. The estimation procedure is able to produce parameter estimates that are robust to the occurrence of temporary structural change.     

A political-economic theory of relevance: Explaining climate change inaction

Why have societies failed to effectively respond to climate change? We address the question of climate change inaction by (1) examining how an unambiguously ominous report about climate change (IPCC 2018) was made palatable by news media and (2) explaining why climate change is typically unthematized in everyday life. Drawing on Adorno and Schutz, we develop a political-economic theory of relevance. The imperative to accumulate capital is not only a social-structural reality but also shapes why particular facts are regarded as relevant in experience (topical relevance) as well as how relevant material is interpreted (interpretative relevance) and acted toward (motivational relevance). Applying this framework, we (1) argue that media popularizations of the IPCC's dire Global Warming of 1.5°C (2018) are constituted by relevance systems conditioned by a capitalist social context and (2) strengthen Ollinaho's (2016) Schutzian explanation for climate change inaction by examining how productive relations and the culture industry perpetuate climate change irrelevance in everyday life. Schutz's framework helps conceptualize the intricacies of ideology and, when revised with Adorno's sociology, shines new light on an old question: the relations between social conditions and knowledge.     

De-noising by thresholding operator adapted wavelets

Statistics and Computing - Donoho and Johnstone (Ann Stat 26(3):879–921, 1998) proposed a method from reconstructing an unknown smooth function u from noisy data $$u+\zeta $$ by translating...     

Collisions Between Institutional and Populist Risk Imaginaries: The “Dark Side” of Negative Asymmetric Thinking

Expert knowledge informs the construction of public problems from gun violence to disease epidemics to climate change, and institutional actors draw on this knowledge to implement public policy to mitigate or repair the related harms. The expanding role of experts and institutions in managing risks has come at a time of declining public trust in institutions and a legitimacy crisis around expert knowledge. What happens when these tendencies collide? Previous scholarship has examined how disaster arises through failures of foresight, and how cultural‐cognitive biases can prevent actors from seeing disasters coming. Less is known about the mobilization of resistance against risk management policies. This theoretical essay examines a particular category of that resistance: conspiracist discourse that frames risk as emanating primarily from perceived secret agendas of institutions and experts that explicitly claim to be acting in the public interest. This essay argues that conspiracy thinking can be best understood as rooted in a “populist risk imaginary,” which is rooted in negative asymmetry, a cultural‐cognitive bias that foregrounds the possibility of worst‐case outcomes. Conspiracy discourse can be understood as the “dark side” of negative asymmetry, which is otherwise used by service‐oriented professionals to sharpen their foresight in preempting future dangers.     

Learning by exporting: A system-based review and research agenda

Over the past four decades, flourishing empirical research has attempted to establish the mechanisms and conditions underpinning improvements in exporters’ innovation and productivity via the learning-by-exporting (LBE) effect, and the domain has gained legitimacy and empirical credibility. However, the literature's findings are largely fragmented and require systematic review and analysis to draw definitive conclusions on the factors that influence the subsequent realization of learning from exporting. To fill this void, we critically examine the extant LBE research for the period 1984–2021. We systematically review 167 articles to develop a system-based taxonomy and conceptual model of LBE, which comprises five major components: system outputs (productivity and innovation), inputs (e.g., institutional factors and resources), firm-level capabilities (e.g., absorptive capacity and innovation persistence), managerial characteristics (e.g., entrepreneurship skills) and internationalization strategies. In doing so, we uncover paradoxical tensions within the system brought about by the conflicting roles of some components of the LBE system, such as firm-, industry- and country-level technological capabilities. Our review also reveals research gaps that open relevant opportunities for further research and conclusions that hold novel implications for managers and policymakers.     

Confidence estimation via the parametric bootstrap in logistic joinpoint regression

We consider asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood and related estimators in a clustered logistic joinpoint model with an unknown joinpoint. Sufficient conditions are given for the consistency of confidence bounds produced by the parametric bootstrap; one of the conditions required is that the true location of the joinpoint is not at one of the observation times. A simulation study is presented to illustrate the lack of consistency of the bootstrap confidence bounds when the joinpoint is an observation time. A removal algorithm is presented which corrects this problem, but at the price of an increased mean square error. Finally, the methods are applied to data on yearly cancer mortality in the US for individuals age 65 and over.     

Contraceptive use patterns across teens’ sexual relationships: The role of relationships,partners, and sexual histories

By using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, we examine how adolescent relationship characteristics, partner attributes, and sexual relationship histories are associated with contraceptive use and consistency, incorporating random effects to control for respondent-level unobserved heterogeneity. Analyses show that teens' contraceptive use patterns vary across relationships. Teens with more-homogamous partners, with more-intimate relationships, and who communicate about contraception before sex have greater odds of contraceptive use and/or consistency. Teens in romantic relationships, and who are older when engaging in sex for the first time, have greater odds of ever using contraceptives but reduced odds of always using contraceptives. Teens continue habits from previous relationships: teens with experience practicing contraceptive consistency and females who previously have used hormonal contraceptive methods are better able to maintain consistency in subsequent relationships. Also, relationship and partner characteristics are less important for females who previously used hormonal methods.     

Child sexual abuse: from prevention to self‐protection

There are a growing number of child abuse prevention and education programmes, including primarily group‐based parent and child education, which are taught by teachers within the school system. This article reviews some of the existing sexual abuse education and/or body safety programmes, as well as the research surrounding them. Advantages as well as criticisms of such programmes are reviewed. Issues such as target populations (i.e. children, teachers, parents), programme components and methodological limitations are addressed. Major findings include: children as young as three can be effectively taught self‐protection skills, parental and family involvement in training is important, and repeated exposure helps children maintain knowledge gains. The components of successful programmes include teaching children to identify and resist inappropriate touching, reassuring children that it is not their fault and learning the proper names of their genitals. Finally, future directions for programme development, research and policy are explored. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.