THE FAILURE TO PREDICT THE GREAT RECESSION—A VIEW THROUGH THE ROLE OF CREDIT

Much has been written about why economists failed to predict the latest crisis. Reading the literature, it seems that this crisis was so obvious that economists must have been blind not to see it coming. We approach this failure by looking at one of the key variables in this analysis, the evolution of credit. We compare the conclusions reached in the recent literature with those that could have been drawn from an ex‐ante analysis. We show that the effect of credit on the business cycle cannot be exploited from a policymaker's point of view.     

A non-parametric statistic for testing conditional heteroscedasticity for unobserved component models

When prediction intervals are constructed using unobserved component models (UCM), problems can arise due to the possible existence of components that may or may not be conditionally heteroscedastic. Accurate coverage depends on correctly identifying the source of the heteroscedasticity. Different proposals for testing heteroscedasticity have been applied to UCM; however, in most cases, these procedures are unable to identify the heteroscedastic component correctly. The main issue is that test statistics are affected by the presence of serial correlation, causing the distribution of the statistic under conditional homoscedasticity to remain unknown. We propose a nonparametric statistic for testing heteroscedasticity based on the well-known Wilcoxon''s rank statistic. We study the asymptotic validation of the statistic and examine bootstrap procedures for approximating its finite sample distribution. Simulation results show an improvement in the size of the homoscedasticity tests and a power that is clearly comparable with the best alternative in the literature. We also apply the test on real inflation data. Looking for the presence of a conditionally heteroscedastic effect on the error terms, we arrive at conclusions that almost all cases are different than those given by the alternative test statistics presented in the literature.     

Narratives of Settling in Contexts of Mobility: A Comparative Analysis of Irish and Polish Highly Qualified Women Migrants in London

Adopting a spatio‐temporal lens, this article explores how highly qualified migrant women negotiate relationships and career motivations in specific socio‐structural contexts. Comparing migration experiences of Irish and Polish women in London, I explore similarities within and differences between these groups. Having joined the EU in 1973, Ireland can be regarded as part of “old EU”, while Poland joining in 2004 is part of the “new” wave of EU members. Migration from old and new member states is often discussed separately using different framing. This article contributes to understanding migration in three ways. Firstly, by developing comparative analysis, which goes beyond narrow and static migrant categories. Secondly, by challenging the temporary/transient versus permanence/integration dichotomy to explore a “sliding scale” of migrant trajectories. Thirdly, by illustrating how evolving relationships, through the life cycle, may enable but also hinder migrant women's opportunities for settling in or moving on.     

If My Blood Pressure Is High,Do I Take It to Heart? Behavioral Effects of Biomarker Collection in the Health and Retirement Study

Starting in 2006, respondents in the biennial U.S. Health and Retirement Study were asked to submit biomarkers every other wave and were notified of several results. Rates of undiagnosed high blood pressure and diabetes according to these biomarkers were 1.5 % and 0.7 %, respectively. An intent-to-treat analysis suggests that collection and notification had small effects on the average respondent and may have reduced health care utilization. Among respondents who received notification of potentially dangerous biomarker levels, subsequent rates of new diagnosis and associated pharmaceutical usage increased by 20 to 40 percentage points, an order of magnitude above baseline. High blood glucose A1C was associated with a 2.2 % drop in weight and an increase in exercise among respondents without a previous diagnosis of diabetes. Notifications appear also to have altered health behaviors by spouses, suggesting household responses to health maintenance. Biomarker collection seems to have altered circumstances for an interesting minority of HRS respondents.     

Copula structure analysis

Summary.  We extend the standard approach of correlation structure analysis for dimension reduction of high dimensional statistical data. The classical assumption of a linear model for the distribution of a random vector is replaced by the weaker assumption of a model for the copula. For elliptical copulas a correlation-like structure remains, but different margins and non-existence of moments are possible. After introducing the new concept and deriving some theoretical results we observe in a simulation study the performance of the estimators: the theoretical asymptotic behaviour of the statistics can be observed even for small sample sizes. Finally, we show our method at work for a financial data set and explain differences between our copula-based approach and the classical approach. Our new method yielear models also.     

A copula-based Markov chain model for the analysis of binary longitudinal data

A fully parametric first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) model is proposed to analyse binary longitudinal data. By using a discretized version of a copula, the modelling approach allows one to construct separate models for the marginal response and for the dependence between adjacent responses. In particular, the transition model that is focused on discretizes the Gaussian copula in such a way that the marginal is a Bernoulli distribution. A probit link is used to take into account concomitant information in the behaviour of the underlying marginal distribution. Fixed and time-varying covariates can be included in the model. The method is simple and is a natural extension of the AR(1) model for Gaussian series. Since the approach put forward is likelihood-based, it allows interpretations and inferences to be made that are not possible with semi-parametric approaches such as those based on generalized estimating equations. Data from a study designed to reduce the exposure of children to the sun are used to illustrate the methods.     

Who cares and how much: exploring the determinants of co-residential informal care

The importance of informal care provided inside the household (co-residential care) is widely acknowledged in policy circles. However, the factors that determine the likelihood and scale of provision are not fully understood. A two-part model (2PM) is used to investigate both participation and levels of provision. Random effects dynamic panel specifications are employed. Results show that co-residential informal care competes with other time demanding activities, such as childcare and employment. Wealthier individuals are less likely to be caregivers, whereas wealthier households have a higher tendency towards caregiving. Evidence of both substitution and complementarity is found between formal and informal care. Informal care and health status are significantly related, with carers more likely to report worse General Health Questionnaire scores than non-carers. Finally, significant dynamic effects are observed with the continuance of the provision of informal care being more likely than the initiation of such activity, while heavy commitment in the past increases the hours provided in the current period.

Low‐Income Mothers’ Private Safety Nets and Children’s Socioemotional Well‐Being

Using longitudinal data from the Fragile Families and Child Well‐being Study (N = 1,162) and the National Evaluation of Welfare‐to‐Work Strategies (N = 1,308), we estimate associations between material and instrumental support available to low‐income mothers and young children’s socioemotional well‐being. In multivariate OLS models, we find mothers’ available support is negatively associated with children’s behavior problems and positively associated with prosocial behavior in both data sets; associations between available support and children’s internalizing and prosocial behaviors attenuate but remain robust in residualized change models. Overall, results support the hypothesis that the availability of a private safety net is positively associated with children’s socioemotional adjustment.     

Gender Stratification and Publication in American Science: Turning the Tools of Science Inward

Gender stratification continues to pervade the American workplace, and academic science as a vocation is hardly exempt. In this article, I review prior work on why and how gender inequality affects scientific careers. I focus specifically on scientific publication, an important determinant of scientific success. The research indicates that processes of gender stratification operate through formal and informal relationships contributing to the inequality we continue to find in academic science. Following Bourdieu (2004) , I argue that sociology's unique reflexivity – that is, our ability to turn the tools of science inward – offers an important vantage point and contribution to our understanding of stratification in science specifically, in workplaces more generally, and in society at large.