Stochastic Forecasting of Labor Supply and Population: An Integrated Model

This paper presents a stochastic model to forecast the German population and labor supply until 2060. Within a cohort-component approach, our population forecast applies principal components analysis to birth, mortality, emigration, and immigration rates, which allows for the reduction of dimensionality and accounts for correlation of the rates. Labor force participation rates are estimated by means of an econometric time series approach. All time series are forecast by stochastic simulation using the bootstrap method. As our model also distinguishes between German and foreign nationals, different developments in fertility, migration, and labor participation could be predicted. The results show that even rising birth rates and high levels of immigration cannot break the basic demographic trend in the long run. An important finding from an endogenous modeling of emigration rates is that high net migration in the long run will be difficult to achieve. Our stochastic perspective suggests therefore a high probability of substantially decreasing the labor supply in Germany.     

Corruption and the ‘Paradox of Redistribution’

The existing literature on the determinants of income redistribution has identified a ‘paradox’. Namely, that countries with a high degree of market income inequality redistribute little, which is in disagreement with the median voter theorem. In a first step, this paper outlines several mechanisms that explain why government corruption might be partially responsible for this ‘paradox’. In a second step, different corruption perception indices and an instrumental variable approach are used to provide empirical evidence that indicates a significant negative impact of corruption on redistribution levels for a sample of 148 developing and developed countries. This finding suggests that, next to political and need factors, government corruption explains to some extent the ‘paradox of redistribution’. This is especially true for many developing countries, given that they typically have relatively high degrees of corruption and low levels of redistribution.     

Quality of Life and Personality Development: A Reply to Land and Michalos

Land and Michael’s (this issue) offer an excellent overview of the evolving status of the social indicators movement, with thoughtful recommendations for future research. I argue that QOL researchers may want to consider paying increased attention to advances in the science of personality development, such as those articulated in McAdams' (The art and science of personality development. Guilford Press, New York, 2015), in conceptualizing comprehensive assessments of the QOL. Specifically, McAdams' synthesis of the literature on personal agency should provide a useful beginning for developmentally-informed discussions of the potential evolving nature of QOL and its antecedents, correlates, and consequences, with the goal of ensuring greater relevance of QOL evaluations to all age groups.     

Midwifery management of second-degree perineal tears in New Zealand: A cross-sectional survey of practice

Background

Second-degree tears are the most common form of perineal trauma occurring after vaginal birth managed by New Zealand midwives, although little is known about midwives’ perineal practice.

Providers’ perspectives of barriers experienced in maternal health care among Marshallese women

Problem

Pacific Islanders are disproportionately burdened by poorer maternal health outcomes with higher rates of pre-term births, low birth weight babies, infant mortality, and inadequate or no prenatal care.

The contingent futures of the mobile present: automation as possibility

In this article we outline and demonstrate a design anthropological approach to investigating automated mobile futures as a processual opening up of possibilities, rather than as a process of technological innovation. To undertake this we investigate the example of how the car-smartphone relationship is configuring in the contingent circumstances of the mobile present and the implications of this for automated mobile futures. Our discussion is set in the context of the growing possibility that automonous driving (AD) features are increasingly part of everyday mobilities (even if unequally distributed globally) and in which personal mobile smart technologies and artificial intelligence (AI) will exist in some form and will interface with humans and be interoperable with other technologies. In developing this we draw on ethnographic understandings of how people live with the possibilities afforded by technologies in everyday life.     

Do significant labor market events change who does the chores? Paid work,housework, and power in mixed-gender Australian households

We examine how men and women in mixed-gender unions change the time they allocate to housework in response to labor market promotions and terminations. Operating much like raises, such events have the potential to alter intra-household power dynamics. Using Australian panel data, we estimate couple-specific fixed effects models and find that female promotion has the strongest association with housework time allocation adjustments. These adjustments are in part attributable to concurrent changes in paid work time, but gender power relations also appear to play a role. Further results indicate that households holding more liberal gender role attitudes are more likely to adjust their housework time allocations after female promotion events. Power dynamics cannot, however, explain all the results. Supporting the sociological theory that partners may “do gender,” we find that in households with more traditional gender role attitudes, his housework time falls while hers rises when he is terminated.