Demographics: people and markets

The basics of demography are now basic to us business as well. Demographics combine demographic data with socioeconomic and geographic factors to help business and other managers know the market for their goods and services. This pamphlet explains market, product, and site analyses, discusses data sources and resources, and includes case studies involving major corporations. Post-war population trends have had an enormous impact on consumer and labor markets, bringing home to business the importance of taking advantage of demographic shifts. Advances in computerized access to data describing changes and increased consciousness of their economic significance has spurred the application of demographic knowledge by managers and the growth of the demographics information industry. The pamphlet describes the resources and methods of demographics including the creation and use of demographic data products.     

The effects of the age and structure of population on family change]

The age structure of a population is one basic factor of population research. It is not only affected by birth, death, immigration, and marriage, but it also reflected in changes of family size. The article analyzed it from two aspects: (1) the age structure of population acts on the size and structure of the family. The younger the age structure, the larger the family size. Otherwise, it is the opposite. According to the 1982 census, 35.4% of the population was 0-14 years in rural areas, and average family size was 4.6; but in urban areas 26.0% of the population was 0-14 years and family size was 3.9. The family was characterized as a nuclear family as industrialization in economic development increased and the population aged. In the 1982 census, 64.7% were nuclear family and 6% were aging population in China. Three- generation families (or more) have decreased dramatically. The change of family size and structure is affected by change of internal family age structure. The younger population (0-14 years) is dependent and 90% live with their parents. The adult population (15-59) years are more affected by marriage, birth and social economic action. Families are established in this age period and give much more effect to fertility. The aging population (over 60) years is facing changes. They appear to be a "Defect" family because the wife or husband has passed away. They change from independent to dependent. 78.3% population over 60 years were dependent on children or social welfare, only 21.7% were independent according to the survey in Beijing Changping County.     

An analytical paradigm for the analysis of national inmigration patterns

This study proposes and demonstrates an analytic paradigm based upon a substantive categorization of a set of inmigration correlates. It exemplifies the notion of categorizing, analyzing according to the categorization, and subsequently discussing the phenomenon in more depth. The paradigm has 2 steps: 1) the variables are categorized according to the cells resulting from the intersection of a preferably small number of nominal dimensions and 2) the data are analyzed, directly anchored in the prior categorization. The data used is Israel's 1983 census macro-data gathered from the Central Bureau of Statistics for the Israeli towns with populations of at least 5000. The authors defined 6 variables as push variables and 4 as pull variables. Results of the regression employing push variables show that 4 variables accounting for 72% of inmigration were found to significantly predict inmigration: 1) unemployment, 2) percentage of Asians-Africans, 3) town size, and 4) religiosity. Within the pull classification, the regression analysis reveals that 2 of the 4 variables explain 31% of the inmigration variance: 1) educational level (26%) and 2) income (5%). The 1st regression analysis on the 2nd dimension shows that the percentage of Asian-African origin and town population size account for 32% of the immigration variance. In the 2nd regression analysis, unemployment explains 48% of the inmigration variance and educational level explains 8%. In the 3rd regression, only home crowding explains a significant amount of the immigration variance (19%). Results of a multiple regression analysis show that unemployment level, percentage of Asian-Africans, population size, and level of religiosity account for 72% of the inmigration variance. Thus, the characteristics of a town inmigrating (push variables) are demographic, economic, and social. However, the attractive features of a town are only economic. Among all economic factors, unemployment is primary. In addition, not only are both percentage of Asians-Africans and population size significantly deflective of inmigration, but each also plays a separate and independent role.     

Black and white population change in small American suburbs since World War II: regional differences

"This study examines the relationship between black population concentration (% black), black population change and white population change for small American suburbs for the 1950-1980 period. Linear, tipping point (curvilinear) and interaction models of racial transition are evaluated for each decade by region (South and non-South), controlling for several other suburban characteristics (age, annexation and distance to the Central Business District) which may affect both black and white population change. The analyses show that racial transition in suburbs involves the parallel development of white and black populations with mainly weak and complex causal linkages which are sensitive to broader suburbanization patterns."     

Compulsive gambling and the medical model

The medical model as a conceptual and operative approach to compulsive gambling is discussed. The terms medical model and disease are defined and the practical implications of their application to compulsive gambling are explored. Special attention is given to the addictive disease concept. Finally, a variety of objections to the medical model are described, but it is concluded that the many individual and social advantages of the medical model make it the preferred conceptualization at our present state of knowledge.     

Dealing with uncertainty: statistics for an aging population

"Uncertainty in statistics and demographic projections for aging and other policy purposes comes from four sources: differences in definitions, sampling error, nonsampling error, and scientific uncertainty. Some of these uncertainties can be reduced by proper planning and coordination, but most often decisions have to be made in the face of some remaining uncertainty. Although decision makers have a tendency to ignore uncertainty, doing so does not lead to good policy-making. Techniques for estimating and reporting on uncertainty include sampling theory, assessment of experts' subjective distributions, sensitivity analysis, and multiple independent estimates." The primary geographical focus is on the United States.     

Birth control in the early stage of marriage

Results are presented from a 1985 survey containing questions on family planning conducted among 13,392 newly married couples in Poland during the period from two to six months following marriage. The opinions of husbands and wives concerning various methods of contraception are analyzed.     

On a conjecture of Kakosyan,Klebanov and Melamed

Suppose X₁, X₂, ..., X_m is a random sample of size m from a population with probability density function f(x), x>0 and let X_1,m<...m,m be the corresponding order statistics. We assume m as an integer valued random variable with P(m=k)=p(1?p)^k?1, k=1, 2, ... and 0 and n X_1,n for fixed n characterizes the exponential distribution. In this paper we prove that under the assumption of monotone hazard rate the identical distribution of and (n?r+1) (X_r,n?X_r?1,n) for some fixed r and n with 1≤r≤n, n≥2, X_0,n=0, characterizes the exponential distribution. Under the assumption of monotone hazard rate the conjecture of Kakosyan, Klebanov and Melamed follows from the above result with r=1.